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Tuesday, 20 June 2023

The Road Less Travelled

Two weeks ago I was looking at the stats for near misses of the 3sd daily upper band on SPX and looked at the twelve comparable instances going back to 2007. Eleven of those delivered some kind of short term high afterwards, so the odds leaned strongly towards that, but the other delivered a four day consolidation and then continuation higher, and that is what we saw here. There was a four day consolidation and then the daily upper band ride resumed, with the daily upper band tested again last Friday 9th June and then every day last week.

The daily upper band closed at 4436 on Friday and (finger in the air) I'd be expecting that to be in the 4450 area today.

As and when this upper band ride ends, and looking at the action over the weekend it may already have ended, then a backtest of the daily middle band will be on the table as a possible retracement target. That's a moving target of course, and closed Friday in the 4261 area.

SPX daily BBs chart:

On SPX there has been a strong follow through from May's closing break over the monthly middle band, now in the 4159 area. That is a possible backtest target.

SPX monthly chart:

NDX has also risen strongly towards the obvious next target at a retest of the all time high. No obvious reason at the moment to think that the target won't be reached in coming months.

NDX monthly chart:

Two week ago I was asked about reversion to the mean on SPX, and I replied that I wouldn't be thinking that looked urgent unless rose another couple of hundred handles. As SPX then rose slightly over 220 handles in the next two trading weeks that is now very much on the table. Friday's high on SPX was 6.2% over the 45dma, so that is now reaching the levels at which reversion to the mean (45dma, now at 4188) started in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023.

SPX daily 45dma chart:

One chart I don't post often but look at every day is the daily SPXADP (advance/decline) chart. When the 9dma on that chart reaches 30 it is time to be looking for a high to form for a retracement or consolidation and that level was hit last week.

SPXADP daily chart:

The historical stats this week are neutral but some serious overbought warnings are now flashing on SPX, and the volume spike on Friday is suggesting that the high may have been made then, or will be made in the very near future. A retracement looks likely, and if that is just a retracement, then the way that ends and turns back up should tell us a lot about whether we are likely to see all time high retests on NDX and SPX this year.

In the short term there is a decent amount of negative divergence across the indices, but there would be a lot more if last week's high was retested. We might see that retested this week.

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