- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
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- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Friday, 15 March 2019

So Here We Are Then

Last Friday I was saying that my preferred scenario on SPX would deliver a marginal new rally high to make the second high of a double top to then take SPX back into the 2600-50 area. We have seen that marginal higher high, the middle of this cycle high window is today, and the stats for next week lean significantly bearish. If everything keeps going to plan then SPX is about to reverse down here and this high may be the 2019 high, though I'm still wondering about a possible ATH retest after the next big low window in June.

There was a very nice setup for reversal across the board on indices this morning, but in my premarket video I was doubtful about those delivering anything today just because the stats for today are so historically bullish, and so it has turned out. Updates on five equity indices and seventeen other instruments on my premarket video from this morning.

As an aside, I was told a few weeks ago after posting one of videos these here that I tend to go pretty fast in these premarket recordings, and that's true, and that I should consider taking it a bit slower, which I won't, as it is fast for a good reason. I'm reviewing the salient trading setups on twenty two tickers in less than ten minutes every morning, and I don't like the videos to run over ten minutes because people are busy in the mornings. All the futures charts shown are also uploaded to the website for subscribers to review, and these videos are recorded for those subscribers rather than intended for general consumption. It's a compromise and, if I'm going too fast for you, please just use the pause button.

Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Updates on ES, NQ, RTY, DAX, ESTX50, SPX, NDX, RUT, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:
There's now a high quality double top setup on SPX which on a sustained break back below 2722 would look for a target in the 2615 area. An encouraging possible hourly RSI 14 sell signal is brewing. I like a sustained reversal from this area.

SPX 60min chart:
On NDX the original rising wedge has expanded into a larger version of the same rising wedge and that has now delivered a slight bearish overthrow A classic bearish setup and another promising hourly RSI 14 sell signal is brewing. On NDX I also like a reversal from this area.

NDX 60min chart:
RUT has delivered a decent lower high. DAX has a solid double top setup and the ESTX50 setup is very similar to NDX, with the exception so far of the bearish overthrow. We might see marginal higher highs on all of these, but the topping setups look cooked and ready to deliver. Next week should be interesting.

Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

Tuesday, 12 March 2019

Back On The Three Day Rule

I was looking at the likely reversal back up on Friday morning and obviously we have seen that and ES/SPX have broken back strongly over the multiple resistance levels in the 2660-70 area, weekly and monthly pivots, daily middle band 5dma and 50 hour MA. So now what?

Well in the short term a retracement seems likely and in my premarket video this morning at theartofchart.net I was projecting an ideal path of a higher high (over 2799 ES Jun) setting up a possible 60min sell signal on ES. Ideally ES would then retrace back to the monthly pivot at 2765 ES (2760 SPX) before either breaking back down through that into lower lows, or (more likely) finding support and retesting the rally highs in what would probably be the second high of a double top setting up a larger retracement into the low 2600s.

Here's how that short term divergence looks on the ES Jun 60min chart:
On the SPX hourly chart there is now a possible RSI 5 sell signal brewing.

SPX 60min chart:
That monthly pivot support on SPX / ES is a decent match with the SPX 5dma, now at 2768 and particularly important because the close back above the 5dma yesterday after the more than 2% decline has put SPX back on the Three Day Rule. On a close back below the 5dma today (extreme long shot) or tomorrow (potentially doable), I'd expect to see a retest of the low at 2722 before a retest of the rally high. We shall see.

SPX daily 5dma chart:
One other thing I mentioned in premarket video today was that in the event that NDX retested the rally high before the expected retracement here, that would set up a decent quality double top on NDX and increase the chance that a more significant lower high was being made on SPX here. NDX has retested the rally high now so that's worth noting too. Nonetheless I still think that a retracement and then higher high here are more likely than a break down directly.

NDX 60min chart:
Either way, SPX is likely in the process of forming a high that should at least deliver a backtest of the low 2600s, and I'm expecting the downtrend for that move to get going within a few days.

Friday, 8 March 2019

Looking For This Retracement Low

Everything that I was looking at on Wednesday has delivered except that SPX has not quite yet reached the H&S target at 2720. The daily RSI 5/NYMO sell signal fixed and reached target, the hourly sell signals on SPX and RUT both made target, and while SPX might need another marginal lower low to reached that 2720 target, this is the right area to see this retracement low, and it could already be in. So what now?

Well there are two obvious options here assuming that the retracement low is being made in this area. I'd expect either option to be complete within two weeks and for a larger decline to follow.  My preferred option would be a retest of the rally high with a marginal higher high. My one reservation there is that the three highs resistance that I was looking at before the high was made never broke, with the current high at 2816.88 just 0.06 below the top of that resistance at 2816.94. That being the case there isn't much room for a higher high unless that resistance breaks.

The other option here is that an H&S is forming, and that a right shoulder will form here with an ideal right shoulder high in the monthly pivot area at 2760. Depending on the time taken to rally, that might well be a decent match with the 5dma, currently in the 2766 area, and the 50 hour MA, currently at 2776. Either option should yield a reversal pattern that would take SPX back into the 2600-50 area.

SPX 60min chart:
RUT has been leading the decline and may be leading on the rally as well. Worth noting that there are possible buy signals brewing on both RSI 14 and RSI 5, and that the current retracement low has established a decent quality rising channel that may be support on the next move up.

RUT 60min chart:
Everyone have a great weekend! :-)

Wednesday, 6 March 2019

Watching SPX Monthly Pivot

I was looking at the topping setup here before the open, among other things. Full premarket video below including a very nice reversal setup on GC.

Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Updates on ES, NQ, RTY, DAX, ESTX50, SPX, NDX, RUT, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD & AUDUSD:
On SPX there is an H&S formed that has completed forming since I capped this chart, though it has not yet broken down. What I was talking about in the video was the possibility that the H&S would break down with a target in the 2720 area, reaching an inflection point just above the monthly pivot at 2760, and rejecting from it into a retest of the rally high. Alternatively SPX breaks though 2760, converts it to resistance, and then continues down to the H&S target in the 2720 area.

SPX 60min chart:
Similar setup on on ES except that the H&S has already broken down slightly. 

ES Mar 60min chart:
On the daily chart the full RSI 5 / NYMO sell signal should fix today until there is a strong rejection back up today. That would favor the 2720 target. I would also note that the 200dma is now at 2738.

SPX daily chart:
Stan and I did our free public Chart Chat on Sunday and if you missed that, the recording is posted on our March Free Webinars page.

Friday, 1 March 2019

Retest Interruptus

I was making the argument before the open this morning that equity indices were so close to obvious resistance on NQ, RTY, DAX and ESTX50, that ES might well deliver a lower high this morning and fail hard there. So far that has delivered though this morning's high might need a retest.

Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, RTY, DAX, ESTX50, SPX, NDX, RUT, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, DX:
If this morning's high area holds, where might SPX be headed next? Well if a bull flag is forming here to set up a high retest before a larger retracement, then the obvious next target would be the 2760s, with some established support in the 2760 area and a possible flag support trendline in that area.

SPX 60min:
Could the retracement go further? Yes, I'm looking particularly at the H&S on RUT, with a target in the 1540 area on a break down. That could be a match with the ES/SPX target area though. Bigger picture the setups, particularly on DAX and ESTX50 are suggesting lower than these levels soon.

RUT 60min:
Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday, looking at the usual wide range of equity indices, forex, bonds, metals and commodities. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on our March Free Webinars page. Be there or be unaware! :-)

Wednesday, 27 February 2019

Topping Out ........ Probably

SPX and NDX reached the resistance areas that I was looking at and may be topping out there. the rising wedge support trendlines on SPX, NDX and RUT have all now broken down. So what now?

Well on SPX I have been watching three levels which are all currently in the same area. These are the SPX weekly pivot at 2784, the 50 hour MA now at 2787 and the 5dma now at 2790. What I was looking for this morning was a break down through these, which we saw, then a backtest into those as resistance which failed in that range. That we did not see, and I'm wondering whether we are going to see a high retest next to set up the second high of a small double top. SPX is still on a 60min RSI 14 sell signal with a possible daily RSI 5 sell signal brewing.

SPX 60min chart:
NDX has also found resistance so far in the range of the three rally highs late last year. Again I am wondering about a possible high retest from here. That would set up possible daily RSI 5 negative divergence and another possible small double top.

NDX 60min chart:
Of the three RUT was the only one to break the weekly pivot (1581) with any enthusiasm, and then reach a possible H&S neckline I'd been looking at in my charts for subscribers. An H&S right shoulder may well be forming there and, if so, that right shoulder would have an ideal right shoulder at the backtest of WP, though the equivalent target on RTY is a bit higher in the 1588 area. We may be forming that right shoulder now, and would likely only see the high retests on ES and NQ if that also breaks up into a rally high retest. RUT is also on an hourly RSI 14 sell signal and in this case weak RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals have already fixed, though a high retest could turn those into full signals.

RUT 60min chart:
Overall I'm looking for more retracement here, possibly after rally high retests, but my concern is that the timing cycles have this retracement low middle to end of next week, followed by a push up into the 20th March area. That's not a lot of time, and the more time is spent topping here then the more modest that retracement is likely to be. The more modest that retracement is, then the higher the chances that the March high will be the possible all time high retest that has been on my radar since SPX broke back over the monthly middle band at the end of January.

Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday, looking at the usual wide range of equity indices, forex, bonds, metals and commodities. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on our March Free Webinars page. Be there or be unaware! :-)

Thursday, 21 February 2019

SPX Rising Channel Support Broken

I was looking this morning at the decent looking possible rising wedge resistance trendline established on SPX at the highs this week and watching with great interest as rising channel and now possibly wedge support was tested again this morning. The trendline held on the first test and then broke on the second, so there has now been a significant technical break down, and the door is open for a possible significant retracement on SPX/ES. We shall see what develops.

In the short term there is an open 60min RSI 14 sell signal that fixed yesterday, the 50 hour MA is at 2763/4, tested and the low today, and short term daily close support/resistance is at 2771. If SPX is topping out short term that we may see a high retest to set up the topping pattern for a larger retracement.

SPX 60min chart:
NDX has also broken rising wedge support, yesterday in this case, but there is no open 60min sell signal there. No particular need to form a topping pattern on NDX of course, as NDX didn't break up with SPX and RUT last week.

NDX 60min chart:
On RUT there is a 60min RSI 14 sell signal fixed and trendline support is not yet broken. That is now in the 1562 area.

RUT 60min chart:
Stan and I are doing a free public webinar at theartofchart.net an hour after the close today on interesting setups on commodities this year looking at gold, silver, coffee, sugar and corn. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on the February Free Webinars page.

Tuesday, 19 February 2019

Fine Charts and Great Coffee

If you read my post on Friday talking about the rising channel on SPX that could deliver an all time high retest within weeks, then you know what I see as the key support level on SPX and that is of course that rising channel support trendline, now in the 2750 area and rising at about 42 handles per week. Until that breaks there's really not much to talk about on the short side on equity indices.

I would note the resistance area above that is the last really significant resistance area before a retest of the all time high. That area is the ceiling established by three rallies Oct-Nov last year and those three highs were all in the narrow range 2800-17. A break and conversion of that area clears the way for the possible all time high retest that may be coming soon, and SPX is now getting close to retesting 2800.

SPX 60min chart:
The rally on NDX has been more muted, and NDX is still trying to break over the 200dma, currently at 7055. I have NDX in a high quality rising wedge here, with wedge support now in the 7020 area and wedge resistance now in the 7210 area. The Oct-Nov three high resistance area on NDX is wider than the equivalent on SPX at 7107-7312 and, like SPX, NDX is also getting close to testing it.

NDX 60min chart:
The bull market on equities is rather long in the tooth though, and whatever happens here the upside from where we are now looks limited compared to other markets that have not been in a bull market for the last ten years. Stan and I are doing a webinar after the close on Thursday looking at the prospects across the many commodities markets we chart and there are some potentially very promising bull markets starting on several of those. One of the markets we will be looking at then is coffee.

Coffee has been in a long bear market from the 2001 high, and on the Bloomberg Coffee subindex shown below has lost about 85% from the bull market high to the possible bear market low we are looking at here. That's not untypical as a decline in this sector, sugar has declined just under 80% and wheat a bit more than 90%. We will be looking at those and others as well on Thursday.

In terms of coffee though, the recent low retest has set up some very decent positive RSI divergence on the monthly chart, and if support is found here then this is a strong candidate for the bear market low. I would draw your attention to the little double bottom setup highlighted in yellow on this chart before I move onto the next one.

BCOMKC monthly (Bloomberg Coffee Subindex):
JO is the Bloomberg ETN and while it is only just over a year old, it is the largest coffee ETF, and you can see has been tracking very well against the coffee index prices so far. On the JO daily chart the little double bottom setup highlighted on the chart above could have an entry here at 36 (and change), and would have a target in the 58 (and change) area. This is likely to be one of the most interesting trades of 2019-20 in my view, and the prospective returns obviously dwarf anything that can be easily envisaged on equities in that timeframe. JO daily:
This very interesting coffee setup is far from alone in the commodities sector and we will be looking at this and others in the free public webinar on Thursday. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on our February Free Webinars page here.

Friday, 15 February 2019

It Sounds Wild But ................

At the end of December I posted the SPX monthly chart for subscribers talking about the significance of the monthly middle band in bear market moves. I posted the chart on a post here on 24th January when it had become clear that such a close back above was possible, and we saw that close back above at the end of January. What I said in the notes on the chart below was that in the event that we were to see a clear monthly close back above the monthly middle band, then the last time that such a close failed to deliver a retest of the all time high before a significant lower low (under 2346) was in 1957. Obviously I am therefore now seriously considering the possibility that SPX may be on the way to a retest of the all time high, and given the overall setup that might well then be the second high of a major double top.

SPX monthly chart:
Now the rally since the late December low has already taken SPX up a very impressive 18%, and to extend that into a retest of the all time high would push that to over 25%. That would be an amazing move if we were to see that retest soon, and historical examples of that are limited, but fast high retests aren't unknown and there is a very decent example of a retest of a high to make a double top at the 2007 high, and that high retest was a 15% rally in two months. That's not a comparison that would be too far away from an ATH  retest here. .

SPX daily chart 2007 double-top:
On the daily chart SPX found some resistance at the 200dma and the 50 week moving average, but SPX has broken above both and looks as though it may be going higher. That brings an interesting possibility that I had been considering as a low probability into higher relief and I want to flag that as a possible path now, so I'll be looking at that in detail on the hourly chart:

SPX daily chart:
Early this week I noticed that last week's low at 2681 had established a rising channel from the December low. I wasn't thinking that channel would be likely to hold through this week but I was mentioning it to subscribers as the key support level that needed to be broken on the expected retracement to kill off the possibility that SPX might be starting a move towards wedge or channel resistance on the chart. Obviously that support trendline has not broken this week and both need to be considered now as potential targets.

The main rising channel is rising at 42 handles or so every week and the all time high could be reached within the channel before the end of February. Rising channel support is closing this week in the 2740 area, that will be at 2782ish at the end of next week, and 2825ish at the close on March 1st. That is obviously a very steep rate of increase, but equally that is a bit less than the average weekly rise since the rally started and, having come this far, it could still extend further after this week's break over the important resistance levels at the 200dma and 50 week MA. The two resistance trendlines shown are the obvious rising wedge resistance option, currently in the 2810 area and due to reach the 2840 area by the end of next week, and the rising channel resistance option, currently in the 2890 area and due to reach the 2930s by the end of next week.

As long as there is no break of rising channel support, then those are the obvious trendline resistance options. There is a lot of negative RSI divergence here, and the channel could break down at any time, and would break down if SPX just stopped here at 2770 for a week, but if it doesn't break down then those targets are on the table and an all time high retest could be seen within two or three weeks. In the absence of a break below channel support that trendline would be above the all time high by the end of March. Food for thought.

SPX 60min chart:
Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

Thursday, 7 February 2019

Reversing At SPX 200dma ..... So Far

My apologies for the lack of an update last week, which was particularly busy. Today I'm going to do a multi-timeframe review of where SPX is now, and the implications longer term of this seven week uptrend having risen this far.

Just to mention, we are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday, and if you'd like to attend, you can register for that on our February Free Webinars page. We are also starting our next four week Trader's Boot Camp on February 18th and if you're interested you can register for that on our Trader's Boot Camp February page, though we do charge a modest fee for that of course.

One thing I was talking about was the importance of the monthly close in January relative to the monthly middle band. Historically this has been very important resistance after a serious bear move has started, and since 1957 every clear monthly close back above the monthly middle band at this stage has always delivered a retest of the all time high before any serious lower lows were made. We saw that clear monthly close back above that monthly middle band at the end of January. That high retest has sometimes made the second high of a large double top of course, although on many occasions that has been the start of a new leg up.

On caveat here is that Stan is of the view that the nature of the market may have changed since the 2009 in that Fed interventions in the market have since been frequent. I'm keeping an open mind but respecting this statistic until demonstrated otherwise.

What I would add though is that the most bullish thing that we could see here IMO on the bigger picture would be a retest of the December low into a test of the rising support trendline from the 2011 low. If that trendline held the next obvious target would then become the corresponding rising megaphone resistance trendline, currently in the 3150 - 3200 area and obviously rising. Food for thought.

SPX monthly chart:
On the weekly chart the key resistance level here is the weekly middle band in the 2730 area. You can see from the chart comments last week on the weekly and daily charts that I was flagging the weekly middle band and 200dma (2740 area) as the next big resistance area, and these are holding so far.

SPX weekly chart:
On the daily chart the high this week was a couple of handles below the 200dma and this should be at least a decent retracement starting here. On the daily RSI the daily RSI 14 buy signal has now reached the possible near miss target, and there is a strong possible RSI 5 / NYMO sell signal that may fix at the close today, depending on whether we see a rally into that close. If so, that should confirm the short term high here.

SPX daily chart:
On the hourly chart a decent quality rising wedge has broken down today. Subject to a topping pattern forming here and continued failure at the 200dma, I'd expect to see at least a 38.2% fib retracement into the 2588 area at this point with the obvious other target areas being the 50% at 2542, the 61.8% at 2496, and the full retracement of the wedge back to 2346. For that last option, a retest that tested and held the rising support trendline from the 2011 low not far below could deliver an impressively bullish scenario for 2019.

SPX 60min chart:
I'm planning another post tomorrow taking a broader view, but that's a thorough snapshot of where I see SPX being here and now. Until tomorrow.

Thursday, 24 January 2019

Topping Out, Probably

SPX went up through both of the annual pivot and 50dma resistance levels and has come close to a test of declining resistance from the all time highs, now in the 2690 area. I was talking earlier this month about the vital importance of monthly closing resistance at the monthly middle band, now at 2664. In the event that there is a clear close in January back above it, then the odds would strongly favor a retest of the all time high before there was anything more than a marginal lower low on SPX. The last time there was a significant monthly closing break back over the middle band in a possible bear market without such an ATH retest coming next was over 60 years ago.

SPX monthly chart:
The initial rally patterns have broken down, except perhaps on DAX, and SPX/ES is now in an inflection point where it either breaks down at least into the high 2500s, or retests the rally highs, probably to make the second high of a double top. I talk about that in detail on the video below, recording at lunchtime today.

Full Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Updates on ES, NQ, RTY, DAX, ESTX50, SPX, NDX, RUT, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:
Short term support is at the 50 hour moving average, always a significant short term trend support/resistance level, now at 2630. If that converts to resistance then that opens the test of 2600 next. If SPX breaks up instead then a marginal new rally high would also deliver, at the moment, a possible test and fail at declining resistance from the all time high. If we haven't seen a break down by tomorrow lunchtime then I'll be leaning towards that high retest.

SPX 60min chart:
Stan and I are doing a free public webinar an hour after the close tonight looking at AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOG, NFLX, TSLA and also the sectors ETS, IBB, IYR, XLE, XLF, XLK, XRT. If you'd like to attend you can register for that here.

Monday, 14 January 2019

Bear Flags and SPX Annual Pivot

In the video below before the open this morning I looked first at the clear bear flag rally patterns developed on ES, NQ, RTY, DAX and ESTX50, then SPX, NDX and RUT. That's a lot of bear flags and while these don't always break down, they usually do and the odds favor that again here. None of these have broken down yet apart from a slight break on ES rising wedge support, and if we see confirmation with a break and conversion of the ES weekly pivot at 2572.50 to resistance today or tomorrow then I'd expect all of these bear flags to start breaking down with likely minimum targets at a retest of last month's low. Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Updates on ES, NQ, RTY, DAX, ESTX50, SPX, NDX, RUT, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD & AUDUSD:
On the upside the SPX high last week was just under the 2019 annual pivot at 2598. I'd note that the February low last year was just a few handles below the 2018 annual pivot, so it's a good area for a rally high. We could still see a marginal higher high but I'm not expecting it to be broken by much. SPX daily chart:
On the SPX chart the bear flag pattern is a rising wedge and wedge support is now in the 2544 area. Watching a clear break there for downside break confirmation, slightly below the monthly pivot at 2551. SPX 15min chart:
We've introduced daily coverage of DAX and Stoxx 50 futures on a trial basis to assess interest in these and we might introduce Nikkei coverage later on the same basis. If you're interested the you can get a 30 day free trial to our non-options services at the bottom of our subscriptions page.

Friday, 4 January 2019

So Far, So Good

Stan and I did an educational webinar at theartofchart.net yesterday after the close on trading in bear markets, and we were talking then about ES/SPX being at an inflection point where on a conversion of the ES weekly pivot at 2441 to resistance ES would likely head down directly into the low retest, but if decent support was found there ES should reject into a retest of the rally high and ideally head for a target in the 2550 area. You can see a recording on that webinar on our January Free Webinars page.

I was talking more about that in my premarket video this morning. Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, SPX, NDX, RUT, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX:
On ES the obvious next serious resistance is at the monthly pivot at 2545.75 and that is now getting close. I'd note that the SPX daily middle band is now in the 2537 area. If resistance is not found there then there is an alternate scenario with a target in the 2600 area which would be a match with the obvious trendline resistance on ES. ES Mar 60min chart:
First trendline resistance on SPX is now being tested. Obviously there is a possible fail area here but the alternate rising channel resistance is currently in the 2590 area if we see a sustained break above. SPX 15min chart:
On NDX the obvious wedge resistance is now in the 6450-60 area and has not yet been tested. Ideally we would see some retracement here and then that test on hourly negative divergence. NDX 15min chart:
The ideal rally high would be made on Monday or possibly Tuesday and I'm watching to see whether there is a daily close over the SPX daily middle band. That could open the higher targets, though a closing break above today might of course be a prelude to a rejection back below the band on Monday. Either way this should be a bear flag forming and on a break back below flag support, currently in the 2460 area, the obvious next target would be a retest of the 2018 low at 2346.58, with an attractive target not far below at rising support from the 2011 low, now in the 2300 area. Everyone have a great weekend. :-)