- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
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Thursday, 14 June 2018

An Uncertain Decline Is Often A Bull Flag Forming

The SPX 60min RSI 14 sell signal that fixed early this week is still open, there is another on NDX and one is brewing on RUT. Furthermore there are now possible daily sell signals brewing on both NDX and RUT, and if SPX retests the June high then there will also be one brewing on SPX.

Is SPX going to retest the June high? Most likely yes. I was talking about the possibility of that happening in the video below, and on the SPX 15min chart below that there is a double top setup that is acting very strangely until you see that it is actually a perfect bull flag channel that is in fact not acting strangely at all. When that breaks up SPX should retest the high and at that stage we might have a genuine double top setup.

One thing I'd mention though is that the next cycle low window is around 25th June. The longer SPX takes to top here, the shorter and likely shallower this retracement is likely to be. The current possible double top forming now would look for the 2750-60 area, and I'd note that rising support from the early May low would be in the right area in that timeframe.

I've left the DX section in today as it's being very interesting today. Partial Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, TF & DX:
SPX 15min chart:
We are doing a webinar an hour after the close tonight on trading options on futures. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on our June Free Webinars page.

Monday, 11 June 2018

Downside Potential Here

SPX is at a potentially significant inflection point here, with a setup for a possible sharp retracement. SPX has broken down from a short term rising wedge and formed a possible double top. A possible hourly RSI 14 sell signal is brewing and the obvious first downside target on SPX in the event of a significant reversal here would be channel support in the 2740 area. We are looking for a sharp retracement soon and it could well start here.

Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF, and CL, NG, GC, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD:
If we see this retracement, which could last a couple of weeks and might go as low as a test of monthly pivot at 2681, then we'd be looking for a retest of the all time high on the next move up. SPX 60min chart:
Stan and I, and our options specialist colleague Matt Gardiner will be doing a webinar after the close on Thursday introducing Paragon Options, a new service we are introducing trading futures options. We'll be looking at trading those, and how that differs from trading stock options. If you'd like to attend then you can register for that on our June Free Webinars page.

Monday, 4 June 2018

Filling The Island Top Gap - Take Three

We did our monthly free public Chart Chat yesterday and, if you missed that, you can see the recording posted on our June Free Webinars page.

ES/SPX has been forming a likely large bull flag over most of the last month, and the flag pattern is the unusual and very poorly named broadening formation, right angled and descending. I'm trying to think of a catchier name.

Be that as it may I like these patterns and, on ES overnight, that pattern has been starting to break up. The full target would be in the 2800-5 area, though we thinking we might see a retracement/backtest from the 2765-75 area, if the island top gap from the March high into 2752.021 can now finally be filled. Our expectation is that this gap should be filled today.

Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:


SPX 60min chart: