- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Tuesday, 16 January 2018

Some Writing On A Wall Somewhere

Well it's been a while but something interesting finally happened on equities today with an AM high that died into a halfway decent decline. Rising support on SPX from the late December low was broken and we may well now be in the topping process for a larger retracement before subsequent higher highs.

This one is mainly interesting because if seen this should deliver a decent buyable dip, but that would be interesting to see. The high after that dip might be more interesting for a swing trade. Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF + others:
It's a measure of how strong this move up has been that a 40 handle pullback failed to reach the 50 hour MA on SPX, now at 2756. If this move is topping out, the obvious topping sequence would be a retest of the high and marginal new ATH before a move to test rising support from the November low, currently in the 2712 area. SPX 60min chart:
I've posted my full intraday video as I aim to do that once a week. Normally I'll just be posting the equity index section. 

Friday, 12 January 2018

Happy vs Mambo #5

I hope everyone is looking forward to the holiday weekend. I know I am, and I am planning to celebrate on Monday by moving a particularly large wardrobe from my daughter's bedroom, and replacing it with a rather nice antique desk. Life can get pretty wild at Jack's house. :-)

I was talking about rising wedge resistance on ES yesterday and that trendline has been reached and overthrown today. NQ has reached a decent quality rising wedge resistance trendline as well and TF may have topped out already. We may well see a reversal here, though whether it lasts more than the usual day or two is another matter. Personally I'll be regarding equity indices as possibly being in a two way market again only after we see a 5% pullback, and I'm aware that could take a while longer.

Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
Regardless of any retracement here, Stan and I would be expecting higher highs afterwards. The SPX daily chart SPX daily chart:
I'll leave you with a very funny mashup video that I found this week to start the holiday weekend:

Thursday, 11 January 2018

Resistance Trendlines

The little retracement yesterday made the targets on the 60min sell signals on ES and NQ, and denied SPX a record on the number of consecutive all time highs at the start of a year. However it is likely that in a week or so SPX will complete the longest ever period without a 5% retracement.

A decent three touch resistance trendline was established on ES on Monday, and I was looking for yesterday's retracement to establish a corresponding support trendline. That is now done and I have a working rising wedge on ES with wedge resistance now at 2775 if ES can clear Stan's resistance in the 2775 area. NQ and TF both also looking interesting and I cover all three in the video.

Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
Here is the rising wedge, and it's a decent pattern. We'll see how it does. Rising wedge support is now at 2749. ES Mar 60min chart:
Stan and I are doing a free educational webinar an hour after the close tonight at the theartofchart.net looking at translating technical analysis into profitable trades. If you'd like to attend you can register for that here.

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

A Polite Cough

I've been ill or recovering much of the new year so far, as has Stan, and much of the western world as far as I can tell, and I've managed to keep up with my main work at theartofchart.net but this is an unusually late first post for the year.

That's not the polite cough that I'm referring to in the title though. SPX and ES have been on both daily RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals since the end of 2017 and a polite cough to the upside would at this stage be all that is required to kill the underlying RSI divergences and fail those signals. We may well see that happen today, though there is at least some reason to think that bears might be able to pull off a last minute decline to save them from that failure today.

I look at that in my premarket video this morning, though with the observation that it's not a trade I'm taking. I've included the whole video today so if you're interested you can see which other trades I do think are interesting, notably CL and KC today, and managing existing trades in ZB and NG. The part on equity indices is covered in the first five minutes. Premarket Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
To fail the daily sell signals requires the respective RSIs to close the day above the initial RSI spike used in the signal. As you can see, SPX is very close to managing that. SPX daily chart:
I won't be holding my breath waiting for a decline in equity indices today but you never know. If we do see a decline Stan and I are still looking higher afterwards.