- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Wednesday, 15 August 2018

Targets and Support Levels

I was saying on my twitter yesterday that if ES could break and convert to support weekly pivot at 2842 then ES/SPX could head up directly, but in the absence of that a test of 2800 area support was likely, and well, here we are. So what now?

Well there is decent established support in this area down to 2793 on ES, and that may hold. A break slightly lower gives a test of the monthly pivot at 2788. A break and conversion of monthly pivot to resistance would be a significant bearish break of a kind that we haven't yet seen in this retracement. ES Sep 60min chart:
Not far under the ES monthly pivot test is a very important trendline at current main rising channel support now in the 2770-5 area. A test and reversal there would mean that this rising channel has evolved into a rising wedge. A sustained break below would open more downside. SPX 60min chart:
I have to be out most of the rest of RTH today but I'll be watching with interest from my phone. If we find a low today then I'd note that Thursday and Friday this week are both cycle trend days, so we could see a strongly directional days tomorrow and/or Friday.

Monday, 13 August 2018

The Wheels On The Bus Go Round and Round

An unsettled open on ES last night with more rumblings from Turkey and lower lows on ES and NQ. I was asked before the open whether I thought there was a serious risk of the wheels coming off on SPX with a 5% or so retracement directly from here, and I replied that I thought that the risk was low, though possible as always.

There are four important support levels below, all shown on the SPX 60min chart. The first is the short term rising wedge support trendline at Friday's low, supported by the daily middle band. As long as that holds the obvious next target is wedge resistance in the 2870 area. If that should break then there is strong established support in the 2800 area, which would also be the 38.2% retracement of the rising wedge. If 2800 was to break that could be a significant bearish break, but there would still be main channel support, currently in the 2765 area.

On the upside resistance is at the the ES weekly pivot at 2842 and the 50 hour MA on SPX, currently at 2845 and resistance so far both on Friday and today, then the open gap from 2853.58 that would need to be filled. After that the way would be clear for SPX to head back to short term wedge resistance and a likely test of the all time high at 2872.87.

Leaning long into that ATH retest until demonstrated otherwise.

Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ:
SPX 60min chart:
We did our monthly public Chart Chat yesterday, and the recording for that is posted on our August Free Webinars page. We are doing our monthly free public FAANG & Key Sectors webinar after the close on Thursday, and if you'd like to see that, you can register on the same page.

Thursday, 9 August 2018

Bull Flag Compression

ES has been compressing for a couple of days now, forming a likely bull flag for the next leg higher. That may have made a low overnight or may have a bit lower to go before the next leg up begins. A break and conversion to support of the current short term high at 2863.75 ES should clear the path to the all time high retest. Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ:
On SPX main channel resistance is now in the 2888 area and may be the target for the next leg up, after which we expect to see a decent retracement with an obvious target at a test of main channel support, currently in the 2765 area but obviously rising.

After that we might see a test of longer term trendline resistance on SPX in the 2950-3000 area to make a more serious high. SPX 60min chart:
Some announcements today. We are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday running through the usual 35 to 40 instruments over a very wide range of markets and, if you'd like to attend, you can register for that on our August Free Webinars page. We are also running another Trading Academy Boot Camp soon and that is starting September 4th. The first two were very well received and you can see testimonials from that as you scroll down on our testimonials page. If you're interested in attending you can find out more and register for that on this page here.

In the very short term though we are doing a free public webinar after the close tonight looking at trades on our directional options service Paragon Options, currently up about 12% after just under seven weeks so well on course for the minimum 60% per annum return that we are looking for. If you'd like to attend, you can also register for that on our August Free Webinars page.

Monday, 6 August 2018

Looking Higher

I am back from holiday and normal updates are resuming today.

The retracement last week was larger than expected and established a larger rising channel from the 2691.99 low that is part of the larger overall rising channel from 2594.62. Shorter term channel support is now in the 2803 area, and I'm looking in the video below at a possible short term retracement to backtest the new weekly pivot at 2824 ES / 2825.5 SPX, support by the 50 hour MA currently at 2823 SPX. Ideally we would test and reverse there to start the main move to the retest of the all time high.

Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:
On the upside you can see that the two channel resistance trendlines will intersect in the 2890s later this week. That is a possible price and time target for this move. SPX 60min chart:
A couple of announcements today. We are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday running through the usual 35 to 40 instruments over a very wide range of markets and, if you'd like to attend, you can register for that on our August Free Webinars page. We are also running another Trading Academy Boot Camp soon and that is starting September 4th. The first two were very well received and you can see testimonials from that as you scroll down on our testimonials page. If you're interested in attending you can find out more and register for that on this page here.

Thursday, 26 July 2018

Schrodinger's Bacon

Sometimes as I cook with my older children we take a moment to discuss the great issues of our times and, after a quick foray this afternoon into the placebo effect and alternative medicines, my son and I decided to tackle the important matter of adapting Schrodinger's famous quantum physics experiment to fit the perspective of our labrador/poodle cross Pippa.

As Pippa's main and possibly only interest is in food, we decided to replace the cat with bacon, which would be placed in the same locked box with an atomic clock that, at the key random point of atomic decay, would now trigger a process that would perfectly grill the bacon. The bacon would therefore exist in a quantum probability cloud state of cooked/uncooked until the moment that the state was crystallised by Pippa's observation of the bacon, obviously through smell rather than sight.

This raised some interesting questions. Could Pippa influence the final state through her clear preference for cooked bacon? Would the odds of the bacon being cooked be affected by the aroma of cooked bacon being much more powerful than uncooked? Are there any real world materials that are truly impermeable to the aroma of cooked bacon? Good questions all, and doubtless physicists will be considering these in depth over coming decades. As our initiation of this great project is now complete, my son and I are thinking of looking at world peace tomorrow. :-)

On to the markets, where ES/SPX has been backtesting the resistance broken on the announcement later yesterday that Trump and Juncker had agreed on a trade deal to avoid mutually higher tariffs. The low for that backtest may already be in and we are leaning long in the expectation of seeing the all time highs on SPX retested in the next few days.

Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ:
I was saying in my last post that the closer SPX came to the retest of the all time high (ATH), the more likely it would be that the retest would happen before a significant retracement rather than afterwards. At this stage the main pattern from the lows this year is the rising channel that is the thrust up from the lows on the bullish triangle that formed from the 2018 highs. The minimum target for that bull triangle/flag is the ATH retest and you can see on the chart below that the ATH and rising channel resistance will cross at the close tomorrow. The ATH retest doesn't need to be then, but is likely to happen in the first half of next week, and from there we should see the decent retracement that we didn't see last week, possibly back into the 2800 area, before likely continuation higher. Any retracement on the way into that ATH retest is now likely both to be modest, and to be a buying opportunity.

SPX 60min chart:
A couple of announcements to make today. The first is that our new directional options service Paragon Options finished the first month of trading with a respectable 5.43% profit on the $100k model portfolio, slightly more than 15% return on margin employed. We're expecting to average returns of at least 5% monthly in future and, if you're interested in a 30 day free trial, you can sign up for one of those here. Over 90% of those who took a free trial a month ago have converted to being monthly subscribers at the end of their trials. The second announcement is that I'm sort of on holiday next week as I'm taking a one week course learning ancient greek with my daughter. I'll try and get a post out next week but it may not be possible depending on time constraints.

Tuesday, 24 July 2018

Antigonish

Last week I was looking at the high quality setup for a retracement but was looking for a modest move to the all time high retest on RUT before that got going. Today we are looking at SPX having gone considerably higher and at the time of writing RUT has still not delivered that full retest, though it came close at the high this morning. I did mention that the correlation between SPX and RUT tended to be rather variable.

Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:
There are still high quality daily and hourly sell signals fixed on SPX, and that still favors retracement here short term. It's important to remember though that on the bigger picture here SPX is in a thrust up from a triangle with a very clear target at a retest of the all time high at 2872.87, and the closer SPX gets to that target without retracing, the more likely it is that target will be hit before a significant retracement is seen. If we don't see that retracement start today, SPX may well just head there directly. SPX 60min chart:

Thursday, 19 July 2018

Forming A Likely (Short Term) High

I was talking about on Tuesday about the likely short term high forming here and that process is now further advanced and possibly finished, though I think that the odds favor another short term high retest before the retracement that should follow.

Just to recap, we are expecting a short term retracement retracement to follow, lasting perhaps a week and taking SPX back into the 2750-70 range before another leg up starts that might carry SPX up to the all time high retest.

In the short term an hourly RSI 14 sell signal has now fixed and a daily RSI 5 sell signal is brewing. Key short term trend support is at the 50 hour MA, currently in the 2798 area, and if we see a high retest from here I'd expect that to be the second high of a small double top. SPX 60min chart:
Why am I looking for a short term high retest? Well there is the lack of a decent initial reversal pattern but there is also the setup on the RUT chart below with a clear bull flag wedge having broken up with a minimum target at the ATH retest not far above. That isn't a huge move but this is a reliable pattern and I'm expecting this to deliver. While the correlation between SPX and RUT is somewhat variable, a short term high retest on SPX is the obvious thing to see while this plays out on RUT. We'll see whether that delivers. Any sustained break below 2800 SPX would obviously throw this into serious doubt. RUT 60min chart:
Stan and I are doing our monthly free public webinar on the Big Five and Key Sectors an hour after the close tonight. This is looking at AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, FB, NFLX, TSLA & IBB, IYR, XLE, XLF, XLK, XRT. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on our July Free Webinars page.

Tuesday, 17 July 2018

Baby Steps

I was expecting a modest retracement in my last post and we have seen one. I was looking at the setup on the premarket video today and there is a probable short term low here testing support at the ES weekly pivot, open gap support on SPX and the 50 hour MA. We should see a short term higher high next and that will likely be setting up a larger retracement to follow. That's working out so far.

Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ:
On the bigger picture there are possible hourly RSI 14 and daily RSI 5 sell signals brewing and those I am expecting to deliver not too soon after a higher high for July is made on SPX. SPX 60min chart:
Wrap:

Friday, 13 July 2018

Just One Wafer Thin Retracement Monsieur

SPX has now broken above both the June and March highs, and should be on the way back to retest the all time high. Short term though we are looking for a modest retracement before the next leg up. The short term ES channel support that I was looking at in the premarket video has now broken, the overnight high is being retested and there is a lot of negative RSI divergence. This retracement should be starting soon and last into the first half of next week. Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ:
On the bigger picture SPX is within a larger rising channel and channel support is currently in the 2716 area. That shouldn't be a target here. SPX 60min chart:
Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Wednesday, 11 July 2018

Onward and Upward

My apologies for the intermittent posts lately. As some of you will know, it has been very busy at theartofchart.net recently with the launch of a major new service for us on 25th June, Paragon Options, a directional options service trading options on futures. We've put a lot of work into developing and launching this service, which as far as we are aware is entirely unique, trading options on the wide range of futures and forex instruments we cover in our other services. Almost all or all other options services focus on stocks and ETFs. The first month is going well, up about 5% in the first two weeks and two days so far, and workload should be easing off a bit soon, but it has been very busy. My posting schedule should be back to normal soon.

Since I last posted that the retracement low was likely in, SPX formed a decent quality IHS and that has broken up and reached target at a retest of the June high. In the short term ES/SPX is retracing and ideally we'd like to see a low made today or tomorrow in the 2760-5 ES area before this uptrend resumes.

Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:
On SPX there is a clear rising channel from the low and it is this I am mainly watching here. Channel resistance is rising obviously and is currently in the 2842 area. SPX 60min chart:

Friday, 29 June 2018

The Retracement Low Is (Probably) In

We are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday. If you'd like to attend you can sign up for that on our July Free Webinars page.

SPX reached the ideal 2680-2700 retracement low range and has rallied strongly from there with a 60min RSI 14 buy signal fixing this morning. The low isn't definitely in yet, with resistance at the 50 hour MA and daily middle band above in the 2737 and 2756 areas respectively, but this is a very strong candidate low, but a decent double bottom setup here meaning that there would be no need to retest the low as part of a bottoming process. We'll see how that goes.

Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, SPX, NDX, RUT:
The cleanest reversal setup is on NDX, with a falling wedge / bull flag that broke up this morning, another hourly RSI 14 buy signal fixed this morning and a double bottom setup to point the way back to the high retest that would also be the minimum bull flag setup. Any retracement today will look like a buy to me. You might still be reluctant to be long yet subject to more confirmation, but this isn't a setup that I'd be at all keen to short. NDX 60min chart:
The weather is nice here in the UK for once. There's a strange yellow ball in the sky which I understand from google is called a 'sun'. Not a common sight in the UK at all so I'll be cautiously investigating this phenomenon over the next few days. Everyone have a great weekend! :-)

Wednesday, 27 June 2018

Minding The Gap

We are doing the monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday. If you'd like to attend then you can register for that on our July Free Webinars page. We are also running our annual July 4th weekend sale over the next few days, so over that period annual memberships purchased have four free months rather than the usual two. As with all our memberships, as long as the subscription is continuous, the subscription price will never be increased in the future.

After a slow start SPX is coming into the ideal low area 2680-2700 that Stan has been calling for the last few weeks. SPX is in the low window and we think that a low this week is likely.

Full Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD:
The high today was at gap resistance, and at the 50 hour MA which was the obvious resistance area, and the final leg down should now in progress. If SPX should go under 2680 then rising support from the the early April low is now in the 2665 area. That's not a target here, but under 2680 it would be the next big support level. SPX 60min chart:

Thursday, 21 June 2018

A Bull Flag Megaphone Taking Shape

Apologies for the lack of updates this week. It has been extremely busy. I should be back on a more normal schedule next week. Stan and I are doing our monthly free public webinar on FAANG stocks and key sectors tonight, and if you'd like to attend you can register for that on our June Free Webinars page.

It has been an irritating week on the indices, from a promising start on ES/SPX and NQ/NDX, with high quality H&S patterns breaking down on all four, with then the H&S patterns on NQ/NDX failing into  higher highs, and then the H&S on ES being invalidated at the highs last night, leaving the H&S on SPX as the sole survivor of the four patterns, having escaped invalidation by 0.13 handles at the highs yesterday. That still has an open target in the 2725 area.

So what is actually happening here? Well the overnight high on ES was very interesting as it established a three touch declining resistance trendline from the high. That was interesting because it suggests that a flag pattern is forming and, as long as that resistance holds, then ES should be on the way to confirm a pattern support trendline. After I recorded the video below I had a careful look to see if I could identify likely targets and I found two, both falling megaphone support alternate trendlines, and by the close today they would be in the 2728 and 2720 areas respectively. If ES trends down today, which I was talking about as a strong probability on the premarket video below, and is looking increasingly likely at the time of writing, then the target for this move is likely to be one of those trendlines.

In terms of quality I like the higher trendline better, but if the touch (and likely reverse) was to be today I would note that the lower trendline would be a strong match with the 38.2% fib retracement of the broken rising wedge in the 2720 area, and that would normally be my minimum retracement target on a broken wedge like this one. The H&S target on SPX would be satisfied on a hit of either option. If that low was to be made tomorrow then the higher trendline would be a better match.

So what would a retracement low in this area mean? Well the setup would be a clear bull flag megaphone. The low would be a clear timing match with Stan's low window for this retracement with the middle of that low window on Monday 25th June, and on a break up from the flag the minimum target would be a retest of the June high, with very possible continuation on to a retest of the all time highs on ES/SPX. We will see how this develops.

Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:
ES Sep 60min chart:

Thursday, 14 June 2018

An Uncertain Decline Is Often A Bull Flag Forming

The SPX 60min RSI 14 sell signal that fixed early this week is still open, there is another on NDX and one is brewing on RUT. Furthermore there are now possible daily sell signals brewing on both NDX and RUT, and if SPX retests the June high then there will also be one brewing on SPX.

Is SPX going to retest the June high? Most likely yes. I was talking about the possibility of that happening in the video below, and on the SPX 15min chart below that there is a double top setup that is acting very strangely until you see that it is actually a perfect bull flag channel that is in fact not acting strangely at all. When that breaks up SPX should retest the high and at that stage we might have a genuine double top setup.

One thing I'd mention though is that the next cycle low window is around 25th June. The longer SPX takes to top here, the shorter and likely shallower this retracement is likely to be. The current possible double top forming now would look for the 2750-60 area, and I'd note that rising support from the early May low would be in the right area in that timeframe.

I've left the DX section in today as it's being very interesting today. Partial Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, TF & DX:
SPX 15min chart:
We are doing a webinar an hour after the close tonight on trading options on futures. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on our June Free Webinars page.

Monday, 11 June 2018

Downside Potential Here

SPX is at a potentially significant inflection point here, with a setup for a possible sharp retracement. SPX has broken down from a short term rising wedge and formed a possible double top. A possible hourly RSI 14 sell signal is brewing and the obvious first downside target on SPX in the event of a significant reversal here would be channel support in the 2740 area. We are looking for a sharp retracement soon and it could well start here.

Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF, and CL, NG, GC, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD:
If we see this retracement, which could last a couple of weeks and might go as low as a test of monthly pivot at 2681, then we'd be looking for a retest of the all time high on the next move up. SPX 60min chart:
Stan and I, and our options specialist colleague Matt Gardiner will be doing a webinar after the close on Thursday introducing Paragon Options, a new service we are introducing trading futures options. We'll be looking at trading those, and how that differs from trading stock options. If you'd like to attend then you can register for that on our June Free Webinars page.

Monday, 4 June 2018

Filling The Island Top Gap - Take Three

We did our monthly free public Chart Chat yesterday and, if you missed that, you can see the recording posted on our June Free Webinars page.

ES/SPX has been forming a likely large bull flag over most of the last month, and the flag pattern is the unusual and very poorly named broadening formation, right angled and descending. I'm trying to think of a catchier name.

Be that as it may I like these patterns and, on ES overnight, that pattern has been starting to break up. The full target would be in the 2800-5 area, though we thinking we might see a retracement/backtest from the 2765-75 area, if the island top gap from the March high into 2752.021 can now finally be filled. Our expectation is that this gap should be filled today.

Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:


SPX 60min chart:

Tuesday, 29 May 2018

Testing Double Top Support

Interesting setup on SPX here as the holiday week begins. SPX is now testing the larger double top support that I was looking at last week and has broken slightly below double top support at the open. From here there are only two high probability options.

The first option is that SPX continues down towards the double top target in the 2661.50 area. A sustained break below 2690 from here likely seals that for the bears. The second option here is that the double top fails and rejects at the break. That's what I would call a Janus bull flag setup, and the target would be a full retest of the May high at 2742.24. A strong break back over weekly pivot on SPX at 2723.65 likely seals this for the bulls, though by that stage SPX would be most of the way back to 2742.24 of course. As a general rule I'd expect to see one or the other target reached this week.

Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF, and CL, NG, GC, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD:
In the video I mention that the downside scenario is supported by the ascending triangle on ES having clearly broken down, though these aren't great at making targets, and that there are still open 60min RSI 14 sell signals on SPX, NDX and RUT. I have been assuming that these would make target after a test of 2760-70 on SPX, but they could do that now instead of course.

Overall the pattern and RSI structure here favors the bears at this inflection point, and the EW structure favors the bulls. May the best structure win! :-)

SPX 60min chart:
Our monthly free public Chart Chat is next Sunday 3rd June at 4pm. We'll be reviewing the usual wide range of instruments across equity, bond, forex and commodity markets. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on or June Free Webinars page.

Tuesday, 22 May 2018

Still Minding The Gap

SPX is still testing the open island top gap from the March rally high, and that has been solid resistance so far. My lean is that SPX will likely break up through that within a day or two, but there is now a clear alternate downside scenario shown on the SPX hourly chart below. Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
The downside scenario here is a possible nested double top setup. A possible hourly RSI 5 sell signal is brewing and will fix on any significant further downside. In terms of the pattern setup the first serious support is rising channel support now in the 2726 area. As it happens the smaller possible double top support is also at 2726, and on a break below the first double top target would be in the 2710 area. That is a decent match with possible trendline support on ES is the 2712 area. The larger double top support is at 2701.9, and a sustained break below would look for 2661.5.

On the downside scenario, with ES and SPX trading at roughly the same level at the moment, support on the way is at the weekly pivot at 2718.9, and the daily middle band, now in the 2688/9 area. SPX 60min chart:

Monday, 21 May 2018

Mind The (Island Top) Gap

I was concerned on Thursday that SPX would fail to do the obvious second leg down on the likely overall bull flag forming here, and in all likelihood SPX has now broken up from that bull flag. Confirmation that SPX is going up directly comes on a fill of the open island top gap from the mid-March high at 2752.01.

I'm leaning against another leg down here but if the bears are going to have (yet) another try at that, then first support is at the ES weekly pivot 2718.25 (same area on SPX), then a break of rising support from the mid-May low, now in the 2712 ES area.

I uploaded the full premarket video this morning by mistake, so this is going to be the full version that I post this week, as I try to only post one of those each week. Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF, and CL, NG, GC, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD:
One thing I look for in a situation like this, when a break up or down is happening earlier than expected, is whether a high quality pattern might be forming, and indeed a high quality rising channel has now been established from the 2594 low. Channel support is now in the 2714/5 area, and if that holds then I'd note that channel resistance is now in the 2790 area. SPX 60min chart:
We are starting our second Academy Trader Boot Camp tonight in a webinar an hour after the close.  The feedback from the last one was very positive and if you'd like to see that then scroll down to the bottom of our Testimonials page to find those. If you'd like to take this very reasonably priced and high quality four week course on TA, risk management and trading methods, there are still places available and you can sign up for that here until the RTH close today.

Thursday, 17 May 2018

The Ghost of 2017

What is likely happening here is that SPX is doing an ABC retracement while forming a bull flag to go higher. Wave A was the first leg down and wave B was likely the rally into the lower high that we have seen so far. What we should see next is the C leg down below the wave A low, possibly extending as low as the daily middle band in the 2679 area, before the next leg up on SPX.

However last year that's not the way this worked. The uptrend was so strong that every time the moment came for a second leg down, SPX broke up instead. That was the 2017 playbook and I'm not expecting to see that here, but it's on my mind as a possibility.

Full Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF, and CL, NG, GC, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD:
I've drawn in a possible flag channel, though obviously flags can also be wedges, megaphones or triangles. If this was to be a channel then SPX would likely find support at the retest of broken triangle resistance in the 2692 area. SPX 60min chart:
An hour after the close tonight Stan and I, and another friend of ours Matt, are presenting a webinar looking at strategies we have been trading on options based on the many futures that we analyse. This is part of a new service, Paragon Options, that we will be launching at the end of June looking for similar returns to the 200% or so per year achieved on our free Weekly Call portfolio so far, using complex strategies and tight risk management. If you are interesting in attending that webinar then you can register for that on our May Free Webinars page. If you'd like to watch the recording afterwards then that will be posted on the same page shortly tonight or tomorrow.

Tuesday, 15 May 2018

The Backtest Before The Retest

On SPX the retracement we have been expecting is in progress and, since I recorded the premarket video below, is now testing the first main target area at the ES weekly pivot at 2704/5. There is decent support here, but I was noting on the video that there are some decent looking hourly RSI 14 sell signals that have fixed on SPX, NDX and RUT that are suggesting a break lower, and as of now, none of those sell signals are close to even the possible near miss (RSI) targets. Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
If SPX does go lower here, then the obvious next big target would be the daily middle band, currently in the 2676 area, and a possible match tomorrow for the 38.2% fib retracement of the rising wedge up from the early May low at 2685. That would be an ideal low for this move.

Wherever this low bottoms out, we are thinking that the next move up from this low may spike up to retest the SPX all time high over the next three to four weeks, so we are expecting this to be an important low to find for a very nice long trade. SPX 60min chart:
A couple of announcements today. We did our monthly public Chart Chat on Sunday and if you missed that you can see the recording on our May Free Webinars page. We are doing a free webinar on Thursday after the close looking at our new directional Paragon Options service trading options on futures, and if you'd like to attend you can register for that on the same page. We finished our first Academy Trader Boot Camp course last Friday and the feedback was very positive. If you'd like to see some of that then scroll down to the bottom of our Testimonials page to find those. We're planning to do these regularly and the next one starts next week so if you'd like a very reasonably priced and high quality four week course on TA, risk management and trading methods, you can register for that here.

Tuesday, 8 May 2018

Backtesting Broken Resistance

The NQ triangle broke up last week and ES broke up from declining resistance and back over the daily middle band. The short term low is likely made and ES/SPX has been backtesting broken resistance.

There is some scope to go lower, with the obvious support levels on ES at the weekly and monthly pivots, at 2645.5 and 2639 respectively, but these look like bull flags forming so far, and SPX has come close to a test of short term support at the 50 hour MA at 2653. That may be close enough. Partial Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
Not far above is declining resistance from the all time high, also triangle resistance, now in the 2710 area. A break and conversion of that to support opens the path to a possible ATH retest, but it's important to remember that has not been broken yet, and it's possible that it might not break when tested. SPX 60min chart:
I mistakenly said last week that our monthly free public Chart Chat was last Sunday. It is actually next Sunday, so if you'd like to register for that, you can do that on our May Free Webinars page.

Friday, 4 May 2018

Waiting For The NQ Triangle Thrust

I was talking on yesterday morning's video about the triangle breaking down on NQ, saying that the classic triangle sequence would be for the initial break to find a low, then reverse back up into the NQ triangle, and then do the main triangle thrust down. So far NQ is following that sequence and should now be topping out on the backtest into the triangle to start the main triangle thrust down.

In the short term there is a case for ES to test a short term resistance trendline in the 2636 area before moving down towards double trendline support in the 2570-5 area, which ideally would be hit on Monday. We'll see how that goes.

On this scenario ES should not break over the monthly pivot at 2639 and the key bull/bear line is falling channel resistance now in the 2662 area. Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
The double support hit on SPX that would ideally be hit on Monday is shown on the chart below. On the video I talk about the possible alternate scenario where that support is broken with conviction. SPX 60min chart:
Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday looking at the usual wide range of tickers over world equity, bond, commodity and forex markets. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on our May Free Webinars page. If you are following our new Paragon Options project then I do another post late yesterday which you can see here.

Tuesday, 1 May 2018

A Pivotal Moment

It is the first day of May today and ES, NQ & TF all started the day testing their new monthly pivots at 2639, 6596 and 1540 respectively. This is an important inflection point, and the historical stats for the first day of May lean bullish.

On a conviction break of these monthly pivots the next obvious target on SPX is triangle support in the 2570 area, with a possible shot at the open Three Day Rule target at the retest of the April low at 2553.

On a failure to break down with conviction through the new monthly pivots the triangle forming since the start of February may be complete. The obvious next moves would be a thrust up through triangle resistance, currently in the 2725 area, then a backtest from that high back into the triangle, and then a thrust up that at minimum retests the all time high.

The better odds move should be 2570 next, and the bears are starting the day strong so we will see how that goes. Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
Here is the bullish triangle shown on the SPX daily chart. SPX daily chart:
Tomorrow will be the middle of a low window on SPX and we are expecting some kind of significant low within a couple of days of that. The window for that low is therefore this week and this could be that low forming today. If not we will be looking again in the 2570 area, which we would expect to see tested this week.

Friday, 27 April 2018

TGIF

I'm doing a morning post today as I'm hoping to take most of the afternoon off after a big webinar at lunchtime. Starting the weekend early. :-)

ES/SPX broke back over the daily middle band yesterday and needs to confirm the break above with another close above today. That's is currently in the 2655 area on both ES and SPX and is clear support. If we were to see a rejection back under there today then we might well see most or all of yesterday's daily candle retraced, as that is seen very frequently on a middle band break and non-confirmation.

So the daily middle band is clear support today. Clear resistance is at the ES monthly and weekly pivots at 2678.75 and 2683.25. The high on ES yesterday was .at the monthly pivot test and if ES is going to fail there we would ideally see yesterday's high tested this morning to establish negative RSI divergence, then a hard fail.

Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
IF ES breaks over both monthly and weekly pivots and converts them to support, then that opens a possible test of last week's high at 2718/9. ES Jun 60min chart:
Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Thursday, 26 April 2018

Breaking Back Over The Daily Middle Band

SPX broke back under the daily middle band on SPX on Tuesday, and confirmed the break below at the close yesterday. If SPX breaks back above the daily middle band today, as seems likely at the time of writing, then that will need a confirming close back above tomorrow.

I posted the key declining resistance levels on SPX and ES on my twitter this morning and they were in the 2662 and 2670 areas respectively. The break above today opens a possible retest of last week's highs and maybe higher.

Full Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF (at the start) and then DX, CL, NG, GC, ZB, HG, KC, SB, CC, ZW, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD:

There is still a decent amount of resistance to be negotiated above, but in the event that SPX rallies back over 2700, the obvious expectation would be a retest of last week's high, and very possibly a test of the triangle resistance that wasn't reached last week. That resistance is now in the 2728 area. If seen that wouldn't be likely to be the second high of a double top, and the retracement between the highs retraced more than 61.8% of the previous move. That would be the next key resistance area however, and a break above it could open a retest of the all time high, though that would be unexpectedly early. SPX 60min chart:
Stan and I are doing a free public webinar 30 minutes after the close tonight entitled 'Turn Around Your Trading Part 3' on turning TA into profitable trades. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on our April Free Webinars page. Stan and Suz will be following that with another webinar on option premium capture, and registration for that is on the same page.

I've mentioned a couple of times in the last few months that we are developing a new options service doing directional trades based on the futures and forex instruments that we cover. We are planning to launch that in June and are now in the pre-launch period. Weekly posts will be done on our blog about that every week and if you're interested you can see the introduction post for that here.

Tuesday, 24 April 2018

Bull Flags Breaking Up

There is a very strong rally setup coming into today, so I've decided to do an AM post this time, with the video below being the section on indices from my premarket video this morning.

The rally setup is the breaks up from bull flags on SPX, NDX and RUT yesterday afternoon and this morning, and the double bottom on SPX that needs to break and convert double bottom resistance at 2683 to fix a double bottom target in the 2705-8 area. If that delivers then all three have a decent shot at a retest of last week's rally highs. Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
The best setup, as happens regularly, is on RUT, with the low yesterday at rising support from the early April low, and a beautiful bull flag falling wedge that broke up at the open today. RUT 60min chart:
This is a nice setup but, if it fails, SPX will likely retest yesterday's low and may well then continue considerably lower. Bulls really need to deliver this morning if they want that retest as a fail could be ugly. Rising wedge support on RUT is in the 1557 area, and if that breaks this rally setup is likely broken too.

Friday, 20 April 2018

Another Friday, Another Inflection Point

Well SPX has finally retraced over the last couple of days, and the bull/bear line that I'm talking about on the video is rising support from the April low. That was tested as expected not long after I recorded the video and that's holding so far. On a break below this rally has likely ended unexpectedly early. If it holds then SPX should do another leg up into the 2730s and triangle resistance there. I'm leaning towards another leg up unless that trendline support breaks. We shall see. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
Here's the overall triangle setup on SPX. SPX 60min chart:
Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

Tuesday, 17 April 2018

The Three Bears

I was saying last week that a fill of the open gap from 2711.93, I'd be disregarding the Three Day Rule target (a retest of 2553.80). The Three Day Rule target technically hasn't failed yet, but the first downside scenario is likely failing, and we are now left with the remaining two scenarios.

The secondary scenario is that a large triangle is forming here, and that SPX is heading towards triangle resistance, currently in the 2745 area. As triangles are to an extent a 'Get Out Of Jail Free' card for pattern targets, on a fail there we would likely still reach the Three Day Rule target, and I'd add this to the other two exceptions when the rule triggered while a triangle was forming.

If we do see this scenario develop then as SPX moves to triangle resistance NDX and RUT may reach their IHS targets in the 6945 and 1608 areas respectively.

If SPX breaks over triangle resistance then the Three Day Rule has had the first fail, and SPX would likely reach that IHS target in the 2792 area. At that point I'd be fairly neutral on direction, though excepting at least a retracement sometime soon.

Full Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF (at the start) and then DX, CL, NG, GC, ZB, HG, KC, SB, CC, ZW, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD:
SPX 60min chart:

Thursday, 12 April 2018

In The Inflection Point

Stan and I are doing our monthly free public webinar on the Big Five and Sectors after the close tonight and we'll be looking at AMZN, AAPL, FB, NFLX, TSLA, IBB, IYR, XLE, XLF, XLK and XRT. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on our April Free Webinars. We are also of course doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday and you can register for that on the same page.

The possible triangle resistance on SPX broke and ES and SPX have both broken their respective IHS trendlines at the highs today, so all of ES/SPX, NQ/NDX and TF/RUT have now broken up from their IHS necklines. This is the inflection point I was looking at in Chart Chat on Sunday and if this is going to be a Janus bear flag reversal, then I'd expect a failure here or not too much higher. If the IHSes are for real then the respective targets on SPX/NDX and RUT would be in the 2792, 6920 and 108 areas respectively. I'll be taking the bull targets seriously if SPX reaches 2712. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
SPX 60min chart:

Wednesday, 11 April 2018

The Ephemeral Triangle

NQ/NDX and RUT/TF have now both reached their respective IHS necklines and broken slightly over them, so the possible Janus bear flag setups on both are set up and ready to fail into the retests of the previous lows. ES/SPX is the only laggard, but of course there was already a strong target at the last low there. In the video below I'm saying that ES/SPX may have topped out on this move yesterday. We'll see.

I was asked a couple of questions about a fuller explanation of Janus flags yesterday and they are a pattern of mine so they aren't written up formally anywhere yet. I tweeted a good recent example on CL and more explanation on my twitter this morning, so you can see that there if you want. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
So what is happening on SPX here if this high was made yesterday? Well Stan has been running this as a likely triangle forming and the high yesterday was at a high quality triangle resistance trendline. If so, then SPX is likely topping out here for a return to triangle support, now in the 2610 area.

One way or the other SPX has been compressing for a while here and pressure is building for a strong move out of this compression. My Three Day Rule target says the expansion will very likely be downwards, but while that stat has never failed since the start of 2007 over dozens of instances, that just means that it hasn't failed yet, as there is no such thing as a definite outcome on any setup or statistic. Fill the open breakaway gap from 2711.93 on SPX and that expansion could still be upwards. SPX 60min chart:

Tuesday, 10 April 2018

Janus Flags

In our Sunday Chart Chat I was looking at an attractive scenario for this week where ES/SPX would make a higher high this week to complete a possible IHS forming, break up slightly from that and then fail back into a minimum target at last week's low at 2553.80, also the target on the Three Day Rule triggered by Friday's clear break back below the 5dma on SPX.

What is a Janus Flag? It is a bull or bear flag that looks like a reversal pattern forming, breaks up (or down) and then rejects hard into a retest of the previous low (or high).

I've explained in detail how I see this setup, and given a likely Three Day Rule invalidation level at a fill of the open gap from 2711.93. Full Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF (at the start) and then DX, CL, NG, GC, ZB, HG, KC, SB, CC, ZW, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD:
The open breakaway gap from 2711.93 is shown on this SPX 60min chart below, as well as the part formed IHS. If the IHS was to break up and make target, then that target would be in the 2790-5 area. SPX 60min chart:
Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday, and on Thursday after the close will be doing our monthly free public review of the Big Five and Sectors. If you'd like to register for either or both you can do that on our April Free Webinars page.

Friday, 6 April 2018

The Three Day Rule - Day Three

It''s been a while since we last saw an example, but one of my strongest historical stats is the Three Day Rule. On this stat, there first needs to be a 2%+ decline, and then on a break back over the 5 day MA, currently at 2627, then on a clear daily closing break back below on either of the next two trading days, then there should be a retest of the previous low (2553.80), before any significant move over the previous high (currently 2672.08). There are no guarantees in trading or analysis, but with the exception of two very marginal higher lows when triangles were forming, this stat has delivered in every instance (so far) going back to the start of 2007.

Unusually I am posting one of our premarket videos for subscribers, but I have a very busy afternoon lined up, and I'm aware I haven't published much this week. This is the full video covering all 19 futures that I look at in the morning. Worth mentioning as well that I may well be away on Monday. Full Pre-Market Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF (at the start) and then DX, CL, NG, GC, ZB, HG, KC, SB, CC, ZW, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD:
SPX daily 5dma:

Thursday, 5 April 2018

Better Late Than Never

I prepared this post a while before the close today but for some reason my media computer took two hours to encode the video. Everything still relevant now so here it is.

In the interim the backtest into the 2619 area is in progress and assuming that support holds, I'm expecting a higher high to make the second high of a double top at one of the obvious resistance levels above at the monthly pivot in the 2676 area, and the daily middle band, now in the 2688 area. Looking for strong resistance at one or the other. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:

SPX 60min chart:

Thursday, 29 March 2018

One Down, Three To Go

Today is the end of the first quarter and the first day of the second quarter on Monday traditionally leans 75% bullish. That's worth bearing in mind here as any bullish move here may follow through on Monday.

Full Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF (at the start) and then DX, CL, NG, GC, ZB, HG, KC, SB, CC, ZW, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD:
I have a decent looking falling channel on SPX here and if the rally target is a test of channel resistance that is now in the 2680-5 area. At the speed SPX has been moving we could see that test today. SPX 15min chart:

Tuesday, 20 March 2018

FOMC Tomorrow

ES bounced at monthly pivot support yesterday and a likely bear flag is forming that on a break down should at minimum deliver a retest of yesterday's low, and likely continuation lower after that. There is a small section looking at Facebook at the end of the video today. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
FOMC is tomorrow of course, and it is possible that the Fed might say something to cheer the bulls here, though it's a little hard to see what that might be. They obviously wouldn't mention QT1, the first phase of quantitative tightening designed to reverse the QE1 through QE3 easing periods. So far that has been implemented with a great deal less fanfare than any of the QE periods, so as not to spook equity markets. Equally the economic numbers over the last month are not supporting any slowing up on interest rate tightening, though in this case I think the Fed are in any case just playing catch up so as not to fall so far behind the markets that really set interest rates, that it becomes obvious that the Fed do not actually control interest rates.

For what it's worth, the beautiful little triangle on the TNX (10yr treasury yield) hourly chart is leaning strongly towards a fastish retest of the recent highs on bond yields, with more downwards pressure on bonds, so I'd be very surprised to see an immediate reversal there. TNX 60min chart:

Monday, 19 March 2018

A Promising Start

ES never managed to break below weekly pivot support last week but the new weekly pivot moved over price and ES is now testing the monthly pivot at 2698, which is holding so far. SPX and NDX have broken their rally rising wedges and retraced 38.2% of them, and if we are to see a backtest here, which looks likely as I write, then the obvious target would be the daily middle band, now in the 2735 area.

I've included the full intraday video today as I'm running late and I like to post one of these once a week or so. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF, DX, CL, NG, HG, GC, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD:
On the bigger picture we are ideally looking for a move to the 2450 area, and SPX ideally makes that in four weeks or so. As and when we make a tradeable low on this move we will be looking for at least ATH retests, so anyone looking for the bearpocalypse to start here is likely to be disappointed .... again. SPX 60min chart:

Thursday, 15 March 2018

In-Between Daze

Today has been a choppy in-between day as SPX/ES has tested strong support and, so far at least, failed either to convert it to resistance and continue down, or rally strongly from it. However we are likely to see one or the other of those soon and I'm surprised that the process has taken as long as it has so far.

On the bear side is SPX filling the gap from 2738.97 that I was looking at yesterday. As I write the LOD on SPX is 2741.47, almost there, but there are no prizes for almost here. That gap needs to be filled to open the next target areas down. Our lean is that should be the way that SPX resolves out of this inflection point.

On the bull side is a failure to get down through support here, in which case a weak hourly RSI 5 buy signal has already fixed, a full size one is brewing, and on a sustained break back up over 2763 the double bottom target would be in the 2784.5 area, with an equivalent setup on NQ looking as though it might deliver a retest of the all time high there.

Price should decide one way or the other soon and we should then see the strong move from there that has failed to materialise so far today. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
SPX 60min chart:

Wednesday, 14 March 2018

Testing Key Support

Yesterday's promising start to the downtrend has continued today and brought ES & SPX down to test important trend support at the weekly pivot on ES at 2749 and the 50 hour MA on SPX now at 2751. SPX is trading about 4 handles below ES today.  A decent confirmation that support is breaking would be a fill of the open breakaway gap on SPX from 2738.97. It is of course possible that this support level won't break, so bears really need to push down through this. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
Here's the support shown on SPX. A break below opens a test of main rally rising support, now in the 2720 area. SPX 60min chart:

Tuesday, 13 March 2018

Buffing Fingernails Modestly

Stan and I were saying in the monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday that the last day of the cycle high window was today and we were expecting to see a rally high made by the end of the day. You can see the recording of that here. There was obviously no doubt in our minds (wipes last of cold sweat from brow), and we should be putting in the first stage of that now. Hourly RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals fixed this morning on all of SPX, NDX and RUT, and except for RUT, the RSI 5 sell signals have reached target in this first push down. We are expecting more downside, likely a lot more downside.

I haven't posted a full intraday video for a few days, so this is the full version also including DX, CL, NG, HG, GC, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD & NZDUSD. I do a premarket video every day for subscribers, and a full intraday video most days, and Stan does a post market video every night.

Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF, DX, CL, NG, HG, GC, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD & NZDUSD:
As I write with ES at 2770, SPX is starting to break rally channel support. On a break below I have a double top target on ES at 2760.50. Ideally that would be hit today. SPX 60min chart:

Friday, 9 March 2018

The Blue Pill

ES gapped up over resistance on the NFP numbers this morning, and we are running the second option that I  was looking at on the intraday video yesterday. ES is likely to hit the rising channel resistance I was looking at yesterday and that is now in the 2785 area. Ideally that gets hit today. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
This is another inflection area and we are looking for a reversal to start from a high not much higher than this is the next couple of trading days. We shall see how that goes. ES Mar 60min chart:
Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday covering the usual 40 or so instruments over most major markets. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on our March Free Webinars page.

Thursday, 8 March 2018

The Thin End Of The Wedge

On the video today the first bit where I was looking at the action so far as a likely bull flag that should deliver a retest of the HOD is now obviously out of date, as the flag then broke up and made target, and we have a new HOD. That was unfortunately only of use to subscribers watching the video being recorded live, or on the subscriber twitter feed where I posted the full version soon afterwards. The shorter version takes a bit longer to produce.

For the rest of the video I am considering the case for a possible high being made here in the 2737.25 to 2741 area on ES and we are in that inflection point now. If we see a hard fail here we are looking for new 2018 lows at minimum. If we see a break up instead then we should see ES reach the 2780s next. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
I drew in a possible overall rising wedge for the rally on TF this morning and it was encouraging for a fail in this area to see the high today at that resistance trendline. We'll see. TF Mar 60min chart:
Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday covering the usual 40 or so instruments over most major markets. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on our March Free Webinars page.

Tuesday, 6 March 2018

Life Is What Happens ......

......... While You Are Busy Making Other Plans - Allen Saunders

The ideal day for the bears today, after yesterday's strong break over the daily middle band, would have been an AM high in the 2735-40 range on ES, then a break and conversion to resistance of 2716 on ES, and a trend day down closing the day well under the daily middle band in the 2700 area and delivering a very bearish daily middle band rejection candle.

The high this morning was low, not retesting the globex high on ES and not setting any decent hourly sell signals brewing. 2716 was then slowly converted to resistance, a process requiring a break of the level, a backtest that holds that level and then continuation in the direction of the break, but then ES found support at the weekly pivot at 2709, rejected back over 2716, reconverted that to support and continued up. This has more or less eliminated the possibility of seeing a rejection candle today, subject to presidential comments of course,

The next obvious target is a retest of the globex high on ES at 2734.5 and at that stage we will have serious possible hourly sell signals brewing. Then we see if 2735-40 resistance holds. If it does then the next move down should be a strong one. A break and conversion of 2740 opens the door to a retest of the rally high, and possible second high of a double top there.

The bears' chances here would have been better with that test this morning and a fail there. I'm keeping an open mind.


Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
I have drawn in three possible falling channel resistance trendlines on SPX that might be a high for this move. SPX 60min chart:

Monday, 5 March 2018

Rally Ending?

The hourly buy signals on ES, NQ, SPX and NDX all reached target today and the RSI 5 buy signal on RUT has reached target as well. Only the hourly RSI 14 buy signal on RUT hasn't yet reached target and that is weakened by fixing at the same time as the RSI 5 buy signal that has reached target. ES and SPX both had pattern targets in the 2725 area that have been reached, NDX/NQ and RUT/TF have reached minimum targets but could go a little higher on their reversal patterns.

We are expecting this to just be a rally before new 2018 lows and the next reversal back down should start soon, though very possibly from higher and not necessarily from a high made today. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
There are possible sell signals brewing on the 15min charts here, but nothing on the 60min charts so far. SPX 15min chart: