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Friday, 23 June 2017

Finally In The Inflection Point

Well here we are at last. NQ broke over last night's bull flag and NDX is trying to break over daily middle band resistance. NQ has reached the minimum bull flag target at 5815 and is in the inflection point that I've been looking for. On a break up from the inflection point we likely see all time high retests on NDX/NQ and SPX/ES. On the bear scenario here we see likely hard fails back into last week's lows, and likely continuation down from there. Price must decide which.

SPX has repeatedly held the daily middle band as support and may be starting a move up to a full retest of the all time high. SPX daily chart:
NDX is breaking over the daily middle band intraday. If the inflection point is going to resolve down NDX likely closes back under the daily middle band, though we could see a weak close above with a rejection instead of confirmation candle on Monday. NDX daily chart:
The ES and NQ futures charts below were done after the RTH close for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here. I have updated the charts with prices up to when I started writing this post.

On ES there is a possible double bottom in place. On a sustained break over 2440.25 the target would be a minimum retest of the all time high. On a fail here we likely see a sustained break below 2430 area support. ES Sep 60min chart:
NQ broke up from the bull flag and made the target at 5815. This is either a double bottom breaking up towards a minimum target at a retest of the all time high, or it is a smaller double top within what I would call a Janus bear flag with a minimum target back at 5641. There is no real middle ground on this setup so it should be one or the other. NQ Sep 60min chart:
At the time of writing bears are trying to break this down and they may succeed, but I've been treating this as a coin toss on the direction of the break and am keeping an open mind. Price will decide.

Stan and I did a free educational webinar at theartofchart.net yesterday an hour after the close, and that was the third webinar in our Managing Risk series, subtitled 'Position Sizing, Trade and Money Money Management'. If you missed it and would liked to see the recording that is on our June Free Webinars page. Warning - there is math in this webinar :-) I would also note that this week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and that the model portfolio there is up 178% in the seven months to May 19th, obviously well on course to make our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As and when that target is reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.

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