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Tuesday 28 February 2017

The Last Trump ...... Speech in February

Intense day today and I didn't manage to get a post out in RTH through a combination of a series of technical issues, lost work that needed to be repeated, and a lifelong love of quality pancakes. I'm doing a quick pre-speech post now as it will likely save some time on what is likely to be a very busy (and sadly pancake free) day tomorrow. 

I won't show any SPX charts today but I would note that a daily RSI 5 sell signal fixed on SPX today. This uptrend is fragile and while I'm still looking for a slightly higher high here a bad reaction to the speech could break the important support that held on SPX and RUT particularly today, and break the bull setups I'm showing on the ES and NQ charts below, and trigger the bear scenario that I'm looking at on the TF chart. 

The charts below are the ones I did earlier this evening for subscribers at theartofchart.net

On the ES chart the rising channel is looking good and there is a matching channel on SPX (shown further down on a twitter screencap). Channel resistance in the 2376 area not yet reached and obviously the speech being made now could break the channel in either direction.  Mar 60min chart: 
NQ is now back over the weekly pivot and retesting the previous high so the Jack (in The Box) Flag pattern target has been reached. NQ Mar 60min chart: 
TF reversing back up from a higher low at the moment. TF Mar 60min chart: 
Just to finish off the post and further elaborate my thinking today I have taken four screen caps below from the private twitter feed for subscribers at theartofchart.net today. 

I'm partially posting these because my persistent troll / digital stalker, who has been haunting me for a couple of years now I think, even going to the extreme length of taking out a paid subscription to theartofchart.net for a month to bug us there, has said some harsh things on my public twitter about my non-publicly available performance at this private feed. I didn't bother to argue with him about that, because there isn't ever much point arguing with a troll, but just to set the record straight this is almost everything, and everything pertinent, that I said about ES on that feed today.  Judge for yourself about whether I am as hopelessly out of my depth looking at ES intraday tape as my troll was alleging.  Obviously in each capture the earlier comments are lower. 

Twitter Capture 1:
Twitter Capture 2: 
Twitter Capture 3: 
Twitter Capture 4: 
Some days are more classical chart friendly than others on ES, so not every day is like today, but Stan contributes too and in my view we do just fine, on what is in any case just a bonus support mechanism for our main subscriber services, rather than a standalone service that we charge for. 

Tonight's speech is a major wild card and tomorrow is the first day of a new month, which traditionally leans bullish, so I'm not making any assumptions about the next day. 

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