- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
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Monday, 30 January 2017

New Digital Digs at www.channelsandpatterns.net

The Google problem I was trying to resolve on Friday was trying to renew my primary domain at www.channelsandpatterns.com. That attempt was unsuccessful and the domain expired on Saturday. The domain now spends a few days in digital limbo where I can still renew it if Google astonish me by sorting out the problem successfully. In the meantime I have moved the blog to www.channelsandpatterns.net which, needless to say, isn't registered with Google. More out of optimism than any kind of faith I am giving Google this week to get their act together before moving my Disqus comments over to the new domain, so for this week comments will need to be on my twitter.

ES broke down from the bull flag channel at the open last night which opened up the downside today, and the obvious support not far below at the time of writing is the backtest of the daily middle band at 2272 (approx 2267/8 on ES). SPX daily chart:
The normal rule of thumb on a directional pattern is 70/30 odds of breaking in the expected direction, but with bull flags I think that they're more like 80%+ likely to break up. I was therefore watching this with particular interest as if the bull flag had been a falling wedge or megaphone, then this kind of breakdown and backtest would have a high probability target at 2274. I was talking about that in my premarket video and that delivered nicely. just one data point but it favors my theory that these bull flag variants behave in a similar manner to each other. As I have been writing ES has reached the obvious target area at 2267/8, and if we are going to see a reversal back up this morning, this is the obvious place to see that. ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ has made the marked double top target in the 5110 area and is now testing the area of the rising support trendline. As with ES, if we are to see a strong reversal back up this morning, this is the likely place to see that. NQ Mar 60min chart:
On TF I was wondering about a test of the 1340 area and well, here we are. As with ES and NQ, if we are to see a strong reversal back up this morning, this is the obvious place to see that. TF Mar 60min chart:
My expectation here is that we will likely find support this morning and then do new all time highs on ES, NQ & TF over the next few days in a final high for this move. If I'm mistaken we should know soon :-)

I'm out most of this morning as it is my older son's fourteenth birthday. I mentioned to him this morning that he was making me feel old, and he replied that as I am in fact old, that was only to be expected. Like me he regards sarcasm as an underrated art form. :-)

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