- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Tuesday, 31 January 2017

Ending Diagonal Established on SPX

Our primary scenario here is that this is likely to be the last retracement before a likely swing high to be made over the next few days. At the moment that's looking pretty good, with the retracement low at rising support from the 2233 and the low this morning has confirmed a rising wedge on SPX for this current move, and a rising channel on ES. On a break back over the 50 hour MA on SPX, currently at 2281, there would be a double bottom breaking up with a target in effect at the all time high. We'd be looking for a rejection at that retest in the second high of a double top looking for a return to the possible H&S neckline at 2233, or continuation up to rising wedge resistance, ideally to be hit in the 2310-20 area within a week or so. We're favoring the higher scenario at the moment. This rising wedge on SPX is of course also an Elliot Wave ending diagonal, which is the ideal pattern to finish this move up.

I was looking at the setups on ES, NQ & TF in my premarket video for daily Video Service subscribers at the artofchart.net this morning, and you can see that here. The ES, NQ & TF charts from that video are below the SPX chart and I'll talk about what has happened on each relative to my expectations in the premarket video.

SPX 60min chart:
ES has done exactly what I was looking for this morning with the bear pennant breaking down into a marginal lower low this morning at the rising support trendline. A 60min buy signal is brewing and as long as that low holds the next move to a new (and final for the moment) ATH should be starting here. ES Mar 60min chart:
I was sceptical in the video about rising wedge support on NQ holding and NQ broke down into the 61.8% fib retrace target. That puts NQ in a likely topping process here and means that NQ is unlikely to manage much more than a retest of the all time high. On the plus side for bulls short term that does mean that a 60min buy signal is now also brewing on NQ, which wouldn't have been the case if that support trendline had held. NQ Mar 60min chart:
On TF 1340 has to be very solid support and that hasn't been tested this morning. Until we see a break back over 1360 we might still see that retest. TF Mar 60min chart:
As long as the low this morning holds, this low on both SPX and ES is at the obvious level to see a final move up start here, and that's what I'm expecting to see. The key resistance levels on each are the 50 hour MA on SPX, currently at 2281, and the weekly pivot on ES at 2280.25.

If this low on SPX and ES doesn't hold then the odds that the swing high is already made will rise considerably. on a break below 2254 ES it would very likely be in. That would be the lower probability scenario here but they happen, just less often than the higher probability scenarios. :-)

Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat webinar on Sunday which is good timing to review how this swing high is progressing. If you'd like to attend I'll be posting the link to register for that tomorrow morning.

Monday, 30 January 2017

New Digital Digs at www.channelsandpatterns.net

The Google problem I was trying to resolve on Friday was trying to renew my primary domain at www.channelsandpatterns.com. That attempt was unsuccessful and the domain expired on Saturday. The domain now spends a few days in digital limbo where I can still renew it if Google astonish me by sorting out the problem successfully. In the meantime I have moved the blog to www.channelsandpatterns.net which, needless to say, isn't registered with Google. More out of optimism than any kind of faith I am giving Google this week to get their act together before moving my Disqus comments over to the new domain, so for this week comments will need to be on my twitter.

ES broke down from the bull flag channel at the open last night which opened up the downside today, and the obvious support not far below at the time of writing is the backtest of the daily middle band at 2272 (approx 2267/8 on ES). SPX daily chart:
The normal rule of thumb on a directional pattern is 70/30 odds of breaking in the expected direction, but with bull flags I think that they're more like 80%+ likely to break up. I was therefore watching this with particular interest as if the bull flag had been a falling wedge or megaphone, then this kind of breakdown and backtest would have a high probability target at 2274. I was talking about that in my premarket video and that delivered nicely. just one data point but it favors my theory that these bull flag variants behave in a similar manner to each other. As I have been writing ES has reached the obvious target area at 2267/8, and if we are going to see a reversal back up this morning, this is the obvious place to see that. ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ has made the marked double top target in the 5110 area and is now testing the area of the rising support trendline. As with ES, if we are to see a strong reversal back up this morning, this is the likely place to see that. NQ Mar 60min chart:
On TF I was wondering about a test of the 1340 area and well, here we are. As with ES and NQ, if we are to see a strong reversal back up this morning, this is the obvious place to see that. TF Mar 60min chart:
My expectation here is that we will likely find support this morning and then do new all time highs on ES, NQ & TF over the next few days in a final high for this move. If I'm mistaken we should know soon :-)

I'm out most of this morning as it is my older son's fourteenth birthday. I mentioned to him this morning that he was making me feel old, and he replied that as I am in fact old, that was only to be expected. Like me he regards sarcasm as an underrated art form. :-)

Friday, 27 January 2017

Kafka For The Twenty First Century

I've  been spending a slightly frustrating day trying to update my payment details at google. To log in to my admin console I need to log in using my G Suite email account, which would be easier to do if I had one. Using the tools on the google help pages has allowed me to identify a number of forgotten email accounts I had with google, none of which is a G Suite account, and I identified a path of help pages on the subject which could while half an hour away while gradually leading me back to the starting page. The one link from google that looked really promising was a bad link, and there was never any opportunity to speak to a human. There have been many great changes over the last thirty years but the ability to deliver a bad customer experience reliably and cheaply using software isn't one of the better ones.

I posted the chart below at lunchtime today showing the perfect bull flag that has formed on ES from the high this week. The flag leans 70% bullish into a retest of the all time high. The flag's been holding support since then and as long as that remains the case that leans bullish into that retest for early next week. ES Mar 60min chart:
Bigger picture there shouldn't be much more upside coming. The high is unlikely to be in yet, but it is unlikely to be far away either. SPX daily chart:
If you missed yesterday's webinar you can see the recording for that on this page here. Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

Thursday, 26 January 2017

Being The Second Mouse

I mentioned in my morning video on Tuesday that Tuesday and Wednesday were both cycle trend days. That means 70% odds that the day is dominated by one side or the other, but often not an actual trend day. Both days were dominated by buyers and ES peaked at 2299.50 overnight.

Are we still going to get a backtest of the triangle? Likely not, as the thrust up yesterday was strong enough to be part of the main triangle thrust. However we are looking for a three part move here, and the first wave looks completed, with full 60min sell signals fixing on all of ES, NQ and TF overnight.

What are we looking for at this high on SPX? Rising wedge resistance is currently in the 2305 area, and that would often overthrow at a high. We might see an overthrow as high as 2325 before this high is made, though equally we could retrace here, retest 2300 and fail there. We'll see. Either way SPX is in the high window, but that runs for another nine days including today. Historically there are no rewards for early arrivals to the short side on SPX, which always seems to take longer and run higher than expected at highs. The early bird may get the worm, but it's the second mouse that takes the cheese. SPX daily chart:
On ES the rising wedge I posted yesterday has broken down on a 60min sell signal. I'm watching for a possible reversal pattern to form to deliver a (likely) retracement target, but the obvious fibonacci targets are in the 38.2% (~2282), or 50%, (~2276) or 61.8% (~2270) target areas. ES Mar 60min chart:
Nothing as clear on NQ, but having updated my Big Five charts last night I don't think the high is in yet. First rising support in the 5133 area. NQ Mar 60min chart:
As with NQ this retracement is likely to mainly be to establish a support trendline. I have an eye on the 1366 level as a possible target for this retracement. TF Mar 60min chart:
There are no more cycle trend days this week and I'm expecting today and tomorrow to be less directional than the last two days. A decent retrace low today will likely be a long opportunity into a significant high to be made in the next few days.

Stan and I are doing a free educational webinar at theartofchart.net an hour after the close tonight on the subject of 'Technical Patterns you can profit from'. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on this page here. Space is limited to 500 places and we already have over 420 attendees registered, so if you want to attend you should register ASAP to ensure that you can.

Wednesday, 25 January 2017

One Last Heave

The triangle broke up as expected and SPX has made a new ATH with some confidence. This kind of setup delivers a termination move and that's what we are expecting here. That could fail at any time but the high window runs through to 7th February and we are expecting a high towards the end of the high window.

The usual sequence when a triangle breaks is that there is then a backtest of broken triangle resistance, often back into the triangle, and then the termination thrust (up in this instance) begins. That backtest doesn't always happen but most of the time it does, so I'm assuming we'll see that here as long as SPX stays under 2300. SPX 60min chart:
If we are going to see the backtest then there's a very decent looking rising wedge from yesterday's low. I watching to see whether that delivers the backtest here. ES Mar 60min chart:
Stan and I are doing a free educational webinar at theartofchart.net an hour after the close on tomorrow on the subject of 'Technical Patterns you can profit from'. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on this page here. Space is limited to 500 places and we already have over 300 attendees registered, so if you want to attend you should register today to ensure that you can.

Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Possible Triangle Break Up Coming Next

SPX retraced a little deeper than I expected yesterday and I've adjusted the support trendline but on the RSI 14 the low was exactly at triangle support and this is a decent looking triangle. The next target within the triangle would be to triangle resistance, currently in the 2276 area. Stan's looking for a very possible break up there. SPX 60min chart:
On ES triangle resistance is now at 2272. The weekly pivot at 2264 is an important level that needs to be converted to support to reach triangle resistance. ES Mar 60min chart:
The double top on NQ broke down slightly and failed last night with a clear target back at a retest of the ATH, and NQ is close to that retest now. NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF declined into the second low of the double bottom that I was looking for yesterday morning and is now testing double bottom resistance at 1357. A sustained break above looks for 1374/5. The falling megaphone on the chart broke up at the open today. TF Mar 60min chart:
I don't think I posted one of my premarket videos last week so here is the link to this morning's video, which also covers the futures for USD, oil, gas, gold and 3yr treasuries. I do these before the open every day for subscribers to the Daily Video Service at theartofchart.net. As part of the service Stan also does a video after the close and updates are posted on the private twitter feed before the open and during the day. If you're interested in trying the service you can try a free trial on this page here.

Stan and I are doing a free educational webinar at theartofchart.net an hour after the close on Thursday on the subject of 'Technical Patterns you can profit from'. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on this page here.

Monday, 23 January 2017

The Triangle on SPX

One characteristic feature of the SPX tape over the last few months has been the tendency for the tape to just get lost in space chopping sideways for extended periods. Today is day thirteen of the current range-bound doldrums, and looking back on the others they all resolved into a break down of whatever size, sometimes after a high retest. That's not encouraging for seeing SPX break much over the current all time high. SPX daily chart:
Shorter term SPX is forming a clear triangle with a 70% bullish lean. That fits with a likely high retest coming. We may need to see a test of triangle support, currently in the 2261 (2256/7 ES area) area, before the likely break up. SPX 60min chart:
NDX looks extremely toppy here, but looking at our Big Five NDX components, AAPL, AMZN, FB, TSLA and NFLX, the top seems unlikely to be in yet. Expecting some downside short term before higher. NDX 60min chart:
On RUT a complex bull flag (probably) is forming. The current pattern is a falling wedge with the next target within the wedge at wedge resistance, currently in the 1368 area. We might well see a retest of the short term low first. RUT 60min chart:
Stan and I are doing a free educational webinar at theartofchart.net an hour after the close on Thursday on the subject of 'Technical Patterns you can profit from'. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on this page here.

Friday, 20 January 2017

Inauguration Day

Stan and I did a webinar on fibonacci retracements and extensions last night at theartofchart.net, and if you would like to see the recording you can find that here. That's looking very topical this morning as I was showing a number of fibonacci retracements on various timeframes there, and on the ES & TF charts that I did for Daily Video Service members after the webinar, I was talking about the fib retrace levels that ES & TF hit at the lows yesterday. You can see yesterday night's comments on the charts below of course.

On ES the rising channel broke down in the morning and the LOD was a 50% retracement of the channel. I mentioned that this was a very possible place to start the last leg up if ES could convert the weekly pivot at 2264.75 to support and that's looking good so far this morning. No ATH retest yet but getting closer. ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ made a new ATH yesterday and has made another this morning. This is a very toppy looking setup with the perfect backtest of broken rising wedge support and a hard fail here wouldn't surprise me, though not seeing anything on the 60min RSI to suggest that at the moment. NQ Mar 60min chart:
On TF the LOD yesterday was a perfect 61.8% fib retrace of the rising channel to a new ATH in early December. No decent overall pattern on the move from there but a possible retracement low made. Falling megaphone resistance on TF now in the 1359.5 area and a test of that would confirm the 70% bullish leaning megaphone. TF Mar 60min:
The obvious bull/bear level on ES today is at 2265/6 and if we are to finally see the ATH retests today on ES & SPX then that should be respected. We'll see how that goes.

I've been mentioning the free to all weekly calls that we post on Sundays regularly, and this week's page here has a breakdown of the performance on these since we started doing them a few months ago. That's near the bottom of the page and the performance has been very impressive so far. If you want to follow these the new one is posted on the blog at theartofchart.net every Sunday.

Thursday, 19 January 2017

Rising Channel Established on ES

Boring tape so far this week but the interesting news yesterday on ES was that a rising channel was established from the 2227 low. Channel support is now at 2260.75 and a break below would be bearish. All of ES, NQ & TF are now on weak 60min buy signals, so my lean is that channel support holds and ES has a decent chance of making the all time high retest today or tomorrow, though the tape this week so far has been memorably dull. ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ made the all time high retest target at the open, so there is no longer an open pattern target above there. NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF has been underperforming the other two all week and when I capped the chart below this morning was looking modestly bullish. TF then broke above both small double bottom support and declining resistance before rejecting back down, so that is still looking very weak. TF Mar 60min chart:
I was asked yesterday how likely it is that ES would reject at the all time retest and make a significant higher there. It's possible but we are leaning towards seeing a run a bit higher, very possibly to test 2300 on SPX. In terms of the rising channel that is rising at about 2.25 handles per day and it is 38.5 handles wide, so channel resistance at the time of writing is at 2299.25. That channel resistance test is the maximum that I am expecting on continuation upwards from the all time high retest on ES/SPX.

Stan and I are doing a free educational webinar at theartofchart.net tonight an hour after the close and all are welcome. The subject is 'Using Fibonacci Sequences in Trading', and you can sign up for that on this page here.

Wednesday, 18 January 2017

Straining at Gnats

Another day of bumping round slightly above the daily middle band so far. A retest of the high is really just a few handles away, but much of the last few weeks have been spent watching SPX repeatedly fail to retest the all time high at the time by a few handles. There's a nice short term setup on ES to deliver the ATH retest but it remains to be seem whether that will be enough to get us there this week. This may just continue to kick around until after the Inauguration.

As and when the high is made, SPX is due a minimum 3.9% retracement from the punch over the weekly upper band a few weeks ago. That should get SPX much of the way back to rising wedge support, currently in the 2155 area. SPX daily chart:
On ES a weak 60min buy signal has fixed overnight and there is a possible double bottom setup to deliver the high retest. First though ES needs to establish support at the weekly pivot at 2264.75, and that's still very much a work in progress at the moment. ES Mar 60min chart:
A weak 60min buy signal has also fixed on NQ, and the ATH retest there is tantalisingly close. Weekly pivot may have been established as support there. NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF has been weaker than the other two, but seems to be making a higher low with a possible double bottom setup forming. TF Mar 60min chart:
As long as SPX can hold the daily middle band at 2265 as support then we should see at least an ATH retest, ideally soon. If we see a closing break below the middle band on SPX, and then a confirming break below the following day, then the high may already be in. RUT/TF and NDX/NQ are already on daily sell signals, and that break would likely fix the daily RSI 14 sell signal brewing on SPX.

Stan and I are doing a free educational webinar on using fibonacci sequences in trading on Thursday an hour after the close at theartofchart.net, and if you'd like to attend you can register for that on this page here.

Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Testing the Daily Middle Band

On ES I have two high probability setups looking for a retest of the high, which are the bull flag megaphone that has broken up and the failed H&S, though as ever during the last few weeks, crossing the few handles to that retest is taking a while. On SPX this is a backtesting of the daily middle band, which is holding so far. If SPX should break below it and confirm with another close the next day then the high would likely be in, but until then I'm still looking for that ATH retest. SPX daily chart:
On the ES chart there is a promising looking double bottom setup here that could deliver the ATH retest, and a possible 60min buy signal is brewing. On a sustained break back over 2267/8 we should at last see that test. If seen we could see a fail there, but it might run up a bit higher to a 2300 test. ES Mar 60min chart:
One way or another this high should be made in the next few days, and may have been made already.

Friday, 13 January 2017

Friday The Thirteenth

Stan and I were asked an interesting question yesterday, which was whether we had any historical stats for how equities tend to perform on Friday the Thirteenth. We don't, and I don't recall every seeing any. Has anyone seen stats on this? Interesting question and if I ever have some free time I might work some up just out of interest.

I was saying yesterday that the decline was likely a practice run as part of the topping process and well, here we are. Nice technical day yesterday with the ES & NQ declines failing into obvious bull flags. The NQ flag broke up yesterday and made target at the ATH retest overnight. The ES flag has broken up at the open today with a strong target back at the retest of the all time high. That's so close now that we'll likely do that today.

Here's the link to my premarket video for Daily Video Subscribers at theartofchart.net this morning, also covering DX, CL, NG, GC & ZB of course. We've been nailing pretty much everything except GC this week, though Stan had a better handle on that than I did. I pretty much redrew my GC chart from scratch yesterday night & think I have a good handle on that now. We'll see in the next day or two whether I'm right about that. If you're interested in trying the services we offer there is a two week free trial available on this page here. That covers all our services except the Big Five Service covering AAPL, AMZN, FB, NFLX & TSLA.

ES has now broken up from the bull flag megaphone with a target at the all time high retest. ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ broke up from the bull flag channel yesterday and has since made a new all time high. 4 of the 5 NQ components in our Big Five Service at theartofchart.net are looking short term toppy, and these are a large enough proportion of the index that I'm doubtful about much more upside on NQ short term. NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF has broken back over the weekly pivot and the obvious next target is bull flag resistance, currently in the 1386/7 area. TF Mar 60min chart:
Holiday tape today which should be thin and would usually lean bullish. I'd be surprised to see ES go any lower than the weekly pivot at 2262.50 today, and I wouldn't be that surprised if ES doesn't break below 2269 again today.

After a look around for a replacement for Screencast as an image host I've settled on Flickr and testing that this week has gone well. 1TB of free storage, no onerous bandwidth restrictions & good reliability. I'm also going to be uploading to Flickr some of the intraday charts that I show on the theartofchart.net subscriber only twitter feed, so if you're not a subscriber and you'd like to see those then you just need to use this link, and make sure that you have selected for the charts to be sorted by upload date and time so the newest charts are at the top. Strangely there don't seem to be many, or possibly any, chartists using Flickr for charts. I've no idea why that is, as it looks ideal as a chart server and archive. Perhaps I'll start a trend. Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Thursday, 12 January 2017

Peering Over The Edge

This is obviously a very toppy looking setup on SPX and it's highly likely that SPX is topping out here in the short term, and very possibly making a major bull market top. In terms of timing, topping processes on SPX tend to be slow and my working assumption has been that SPX would kick around until Inauguration at the end of next week, and at that point the decline would get going. I was planning to describe the decline as the 'Trump Dump', but I may reconsider doing that depending on any further alleged revelations about the President-Elect's personal habits in the interim. :-)

SPX may of course not wait that long, as there is a very decent looking double top setup already formed and ready to go to take SPX back to the 2180 area, which might be a good match with rising wedge support by the time it is reached. Rising wedge support is currently in the 2150 area. SPX daily chart:
On the ES chart the triangle I was looking at last night was delivering beautifully until triangle support at 2255 was broken this morning. The triangle could be evolving into a bull flag, but it's more likely that this is an H&S breaking down with a target in the 2232 area, just above major support in the 2226-8 area. ES Mar 60min chart:
On NQ a perfect double top has formed and broken down with a target at the weekly pivot retest at 4966.25. I called that as likely for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net in my NQ chart last night, as well as calling ES to 2255 test and TF back to 1350, as you can see looking back through the comments on the charts. NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF has broken below the triangle at last and the obvious target is in the 1325 area, though there is some support in the 1345 area that hasn't yet broken at the time of writing and that could hold if the bears fail to follow through on the very trendy action into the lows this morning , though I like the 1325 target better. TF Mar 60min chart:
Any topping process involves a practice run or three as SPX warms up for the turn. My working assumption is that this is one of those. On a sustained break below 2233 SPX that working assumption would likely be wrong.

Apologies for the lack of a post yesterday. I just got swamped in work. It's been a very busy January so far. It's going well though. We just updated testimonials on the front page at theartofchart.net & we're clearly doing something right :-)

Tuesday, 10 January 2017

The TF Falling Wedge Breaks Up

The very nicely formed falling wedge on TF has broken up. Triangle support and the monthly pivot were broken slightly overnight, and Stan & I were looking at that last night and felt that a marginal break, like the one seen overnight, wouldn't invalidate the bull scenario. If TF can get back over the weekly pivot at 1368.5 and convert that to support, the obvious next target is the all time high retest. TF Mar 60min chart:
ES has exactly tested my possible rising wedge wedge turned channel trendline and that's holding so far. That rising channel has now been established. Bulls need to convert the weekly pivot at 2262.50 to support, and hold that channel support trendline. If they can then a sustained break over 2266.50 would have a double bottom target in the 2273.50 area. If Es gets that far I'd expect a retest of the all time high. ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ is retesting yesterday's all time higher and on a move higher I have a weak IHS target in the 5035 area. A strong 60min sell signal has fixed though, which makes the NQ chart look much more bearish than the other two. NQ Mar 60min chart:
If the current LOD at 2259.50 on ES is respected then this is a great setup to retest the all time high. If that low breaks then further downside opens up.

I forgot to include a link yesterday to this week's Free Weekly call at theartofchart.net. This are posted every Sunday on the blog, are free, and have been delivering a strong sequence of very nice swing trades since we started doing them a few weeks ago. The link to this week's Weekly Call is here, but if you are using these then it's best to just find then on the blog on Sunday night or Monday morning.

I'm trying out Flickr as an alternative to Screencast for the expanded charts. Working very well so far I think. Feedback welcome.

Monday, 9 January 2017

Aces and Eights

SPX and NDX made new all time highs on Friday, and the minimum requirement that we were looking for in the high that is forming here has been met. There is a setup for sharp retracement from here, though it's very much still in the inflection point still, and I'll be showing you on the last chart why I think the setup favors the bulls, though it could very much go either way.

On the SPX chart there is now a daily RSI 14 sell signal brewing, with NYMO divergence and SPX close to rising wedge resistance. SPX daily chart:
RUT is at rising channel resistance and is already on a daily RSI 14 sell signal. Again trendline resistance isn't far above. RUT daily chart:
In my first post last week I was looking at the triangle on TF, which was the only decent shorter term pattern of ES, NQ & RUT at the time. That broke up, and has aggressively backtested into the triangle. If it goes a little lower and breaks the monthly pivot at 1352.50, then the break up last week was a false break and the triangle will likely break down, starting a move that might well deliver the 3.9% minimum down move that is still pending on SPX from a punch over the weekly upper band a few weeks ago. The RSI 14 sell signal would fix on SPX and we'd see a decent downmove, albeit one that might well still be part of this topping process. 

On the other hand, if the monthly pivot support tested this morning holds, and the triangle follows through to the upside, then TF should at least fully retest the all time high and SPX would likely make a higher all time high as well. We're considering possible targets up to 2300, as the rising wedge on SPX might overthrow bearishly. The short term pattern on TF within the triangle is a falling wedge, and these break up 70% of the time of course, so I think that gives the bulls an edge here for breaking the triangle up, though not a huge edge. We'll see. TF Mar 60min chart: 
On the bigger picture the inauguration is at the end of next week, and overall the equity indices may hold up until then. It's been a while since we saw anything resembling a fast reversal at a big high on SPX. There's not a lot of upside room on SPX/ES or RUT/TF, though there may well be more on NDX/NQ, which has made a new all time high again today. 

Friday, 6 January 2017

Deceptively Close

I was saying on Wednesday last week that ES, then six handles under the all time high, was deceptively close to the all time high, and that was because ES was already making heavy weather of getting through to retesting it. Nine days later ES is seven handles under the ATH at the time of writing, and has been kicking round in this area for a couple of days while we are still waiting for that retest.

The pattern setup here for delivering that retest is good, and the falling megaphone that has formed over the last few days is a likely bull flag that should deliver it soon after the break of megaphone resistance, which was tested again on the NFP numbers this morning but again wasn't broken. A break over 2268 today would be a clear break. It would be nice to see that break today. ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ was looking more bearish this morning when I capped this chart before NFP. Since then NQ has moved up nicely, the 60min sell signal is no longer brewing, and the obvious target above is the all time high retest there. Just above the retest is the never before hit 5000 level on NQ and that may be decent resistance. NQ Mar 60min chart:
On my TF Wednesday night notes (for Daily Video Subscribers at theartofchart.net) I was looking for a backtest into the triangle and we've seen that, with support found at the weekly pivot. On my premarket video this morning (link at bottom of this post) I was talking about a possible retest of the weekly pivot again today to make the second low of a double bottom and that may well be in progress now. As long as that area holds as support on the retest, or at worst the monthly pivot at 1352.50 then the next target on TF is the retest of the all time high there, though on a break below 1352.50 this bullish triangle setup would flip bearish. TF Mar 60min chart:
This high window on SPX runs through to the middle of next week and we should see the all time high retest by then. If we don't then the chances are this is a lower high and SPX would likely break down without the retest.

I haven't posted one of my premarket videos for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net so far this year so you can see today's here. As well as ES, NQ & TF that also covers DX, CL, NG, GC & ZB of course, and there are some very interesting reversals in progress at the moment. Our 20% off sale on annual subscriptions runs through to Sunday night, delivering effectively four free months, and if you're interested the discount code is Xmas20. We ran a similar sale a year ago and of the twelve subscribers who signed up in the first week of January last year, all have renewed (at that offer price) this year which is a nice vote of confidence.

Stan and I are doing our monthly public (free to all) Chart Chat on Sunday covering 35 or so instruments over most main markets and if you're interested in attending you can sign up for that here. There's a link to a two week free trial on the same page.

No post yesterday as I'd been laid low by some dodgy seafood on Wednesday night. Fortunately these things pass quickly, no pun intended, so I'm back to my usual routine today. Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

PS. Testing Flickr as an alternative to screencast.com for the expanded charts. Feedback invited.