- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Thursday, 4 August 2016

Snail Racing

Sometime soon this tape is going to get more interesting, but at the moment much of the trading day seems as exciting as racing snails. At least I picked a good week to be away last week.

On the daily chart the daily middle band has been tested on Tuesday and Wednesday and there's currently no sign that it is in any danger of breaking. SPX has also broken back over broken range support at 2159 and so far today that is looking a lot like support again. Unless this changes soon then I'm expecting a retest of the all time high and likely a marginal new high. SPX daily chart:
On the 60min chart key resistance is at the 50 hour MA, and that has been holding as resistance so far today. Bulls need to convert that to support. SPX 60min chart:
On the 15min chart the RSI 14 buy signal has now made the possible near miss target. We could see a fail here, and a break back below 2159 range support would break rising support from Tuesday's low, which would open up a possible test of that low. SPX 15min chart:
On ES I'm leaning towards a retest of the ATH too but I would note that there is a possible H&S pattern here that on a new retracement low with confidence would target the 2110 area. There are similar patterns on NQ and TF but unless we see a break back below 2150 ES today then these are likely to be non-starters. ES Sep 60min chart:
So far today is shaping up to be yet another snoozefest, but I'm giving the bull snail 70/30 odds of outrunning the bear snail. I'm just hoping we all live long enough to see who wins :-)

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