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Wednesday 6 July 2016

Eyeing The Double Pivot Support Test

SPX did a very nice test and hold at the daily middle band yesterday. SPX opened above that today and has gone slightly below it intraday at the moment. As this is daily closing support only, for it to hold on a test again today it just needs to be back to or above the daily middle band at the close today. In the meantime we may see a move significantly below intraday and I'll be looking at the targets for that on the ES chart: SPX daily chart:
What Stan was calling for in the public Chart Chat on Sunday was for a test of double monthly and weekly pivot support earlyish this week and that is in range on a spike down through the daily middle band today. You can see the recording for that here. The monthly pivot is at 2062.5 ES and the weekly pivot is at 2059.5 ES (approx 2071 and 2068 SPX respectively) . I have an open H&S target in the 2057 area and that is a match with the 38.2% fib retracement of the spike up from the last week's low. ES Sep 60min chart:
If we see that test, will that strong support zone hold as support? I'm leaning towards yes, and Stan is leaning towards no. Either way we'd likely see a bounce from there. RUT/TF is in a potentially very bearish bigger picture setup if we should see a full retracement back to last week's low. That's probably too alarmist, but if SPX/ES break support here we could see retracement back to the 1900-50 area before (most likely) making new all time highs. TF Sep 60min chart:
Must ES test that double pivot support? No, though it usually would on this setup. If we see SPX break back over the current ceiling established at 2091 then I'd be looking for a retest of the 2108.71 high, possibly as the second high of a short term double top.

I have a couple of announcements to make today. The first is that I'm going to be on holiday from Thursday 21st July through Sunday 31st July. I'll likely do a couple of daily posts and a few tweets in that time but my internet access will be very limited and my wife is going to be grumbling if I take too much time out to work. Stan's going to be covering my morning bonus charts at theartofchart.net.

The second is about forthcoming changes at theartofchart.net. I've been taking about us planning to raise the price of our daily video service for a few months now and that's been delayed as we've been upgrading the website, debugging, plugging a security hole etc etc etc. That's now likely to be coming either at the end of July and September, depending on when Stan is on holiday. We're planning quite a large price increase, as we've expanded the service a lot since we started it 11 months ago, and anyone wanting to lock in the current prices would be well advised to subscribe before we do that, as we have a policy of never raising prices to any subscriber for any service as long as their subscription is continuous. We're running a promotion this week with an extra 10% off annual memberships, so now wouldn't be a bad time if you're thinking about it. When we are ready to raise prices we will be mentioning that at least a few days beforehand, and it's possible that we may run another promotion then of course.

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