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Tuesday, 7 June 2016

A Moment of Truth - Day 3

Bulls had an excellent day yesterday and bulldozed through the impressively large number of open sell signals to break the May high at 2111.05. Are they all clear to make a run at the all time high on SPX? Almost, but not quite. There are still two very important resistance levels that need to be broken, though both are in easy range and may be broken this morning.

On SPX the key resistance level is the November 2115 high at 2116.48, and a break over that would break the cycle of lower highs and lows from the all time high at 2134.72 over a year ago in May 2015. The HOD at the time of writing is at 2115.73, so that is really very close to a break. SPX daily chart:
The other level is on NDX, and that is still unfilled island top gap resistance at 4540.80. A break above opens a full test of the April high and NDX has been testing the area under that resistance for several days now without it breaking. The current NDX swing high was made yesterday at 4536.55, and NDX is at 4232 at the time of writing. NDX 60min chart:
If bulls can break these resistance levels then a retest of the all time high at 2134 on SPX becomes the obvious next target. Until these are broken they are still strong resistance and there are still an awful lot of open sell signals here. In addition to the ones already fixed yesterday morning there are now also SPX daily RSI 5 and TF 15min RSI 14 sell signals brewing. It is a measure of the strength of this move that all this negative divergence has not already resulted in a strong retracement. If these resistance levels can be broken today then we could see a retest of the all time high on SPX in coming days. If they can't be broken then we are looking at a swing high right here.

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