- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
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Wednesday, 25 May 2016

Expecting Some Downside

SPX broke back over the middle band yesterday with some confidence, and I was going to be writing this morning about the bears needing to put in a strong reversal candle today to avoid the daily upper band at 2088 becoming a strong target. As the morning high so far is at 2089 I'll be skipping that part, and talking about the likely retracement that we should nonetheless see starting today. There is now no reason to think that we would see a strong reversal daily candle today, but nonetheless we should at least see a decent retracement and maybe more.

Where does this leave the indices on the bigger picture? Well as long as the daily middle band holds as support on the retest I think we may be about to see, then the obvious next target on SPX is a retest of the swing high at 2111. I also have an open double bottom target on NQ that I'll be showing below that will be worth bearing in mind.

Yesterday's move was very powerful and all of ES, NQ and TF are in likely rising megaphones, and testing resistance on those megaphones. All three have 60min sell signals brewing and we should see a decent retracement start very soon. ES Jun 60min chart:
NQ Jun 60min chart:
TF Jun 60min chart:
I didn't call yesterday as a cycle trend day because Stan said it was lower probability than the ones today and tomorrow. Could ES/SPX trend up today? Possible but they are looking stretched already. Even if they are going higher some retracement first looks higher probability here. We'll see.

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