- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
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Monday, 25 April 2016

The Three Possibly Unrelated Bears

Using charts from the ones that I did last night for theartofchart.net basic chart service subscribers, so the ES chart is a few hours old now. 

Friday was a strange day looking at SPX, NDX and RUT side by side. NDX/NQ was daddy bear, making the target I gave in the morning and the test of decent support that I gave at the same time. SPX/ES was mummy bear, with a decent retrace but not reaching obvious support. RUT/TF was (possibly adopted) baby bear,  becoming so detached from the other two that RUT actually returned to retest the current swing high in the afternoon. 

So where does that leave us this morning? Well there are mixed signals. On SPX the important 50 hour MA, currently at 2091, was broken and  retested as resistance, and with rising wedge also broken the obvious target remains at the possible H&S neckline in the 2074 area. There are no 60min or 15min buy signals yet on SPX, NDX or RUT. SPX 60min chart:
There is however a 60min buy signal fixed on ES that I'm concerned about, as well as a possible IHS setup on SPX and double bottom on ES. No buy signal on NQ or (obviously) TF. A rally back over the overnight high at 2091.50 ES would suggest a retest of the current swing high. ES Jun 60min chart: 
The best pattern from the February lows is the rising wedge on RUT, and within that wedge the next obvious target is very much wedge support, currently in the 1124 area. The obvious overall lean is short until that wedge support is tested. As RUT retested the current swing high on Friday that would obviously still be some way below. RUT 60min chart: 
The obvious read here is that SPX should test that 2074 area today and we might get a bounce there. I'll be keeping one eye on the exit for trades either way on this setup today. 

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