- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Tuesday, 12 April 2016

Groundhog Day ... um .... Again?

I'm running late today so I'm using the ES, NQ and TF bonus charts that I posted for theartofchart.net subscribers this morning.

Over the last few days there have been a number of significant looking breaks in either direction but no break has delivered much. On the daily chart the bollinger bands are compressing and when that compression breaks, we are going to see a significant move in the expansion that follows, probably to the downside, but as ever there's only one way to find out for sure. :-) A downward resolution does not preclude marginal new highs before that plays out.

In the short term there was a battle over the ES weekly pivot at 2046.20 (2053/4) that lasted much of yesterday and was firmly resolved in favor of the bears in the last hour. Will this victory be as shortlived as the others have been recently? Very possibly yes, and I'm still thinking that the setup here favors the bulls 60/40, even though unlike yesterday ES is opening below the weekly pivot.

On ES the H&S is now fully formed and tested the neckline overnight, though it failed to sustain trade below it. On the bull side there is now a better looking falling channel that on any reasonable read is an obvious bull flag. Which scenario is the stronger here? Well I see a lot of H&S patterns fail at the neckline test and not that many perfect bull flag channels that break down. The lean on this pattern setup is bullish. ES Jun 60min chart:
There's a similar story on NQ where the upsloping H&S that I was looking at yesterday morning has been replaced with a flat neckline H&S where NQ would now be forming the right shoulder;. On the bull side though, yesterday's indeterminate setup has now resolved into a clear falling wedge that in this context would also be a clear bull flag. Again I see a lot of possible H&S patterns fail at this stage, but not that many clear bull flag falling wedges that break down. Jun 60min chart:
The setup on TF looks more bullish than it really is but nonetheless leans bullish. TF Jun 60min chart:
What the bears do have in their favor this morning is that ES is still under weekly pivot resistance at 2046.20 and SPX is still under 50 hour MA resistance at 2055. If they can maintain those as resistance this morning they have a decent shot today. If not then I'll be looking for a retest of the current rally highs on all three indices. Today is a cycle trend day so there are decent odds that whichever side wins the morning will win the day.

I forgot to add the link to the recording of Sunday's public Chart Chat on a version of this post yesterday morning so if you haven't seen that yet, you can see that here.

No comments:

Post a Comment