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Tuesday, 26 April 2016

FOMC Chop?

I'm pressed for time this morning so this is a good day to post the bonus charts that I did for theartofchart.net subscribers this morning. This gives you guys a now rare look at the non-equity index work that I do there nowadays, and if anyone would like to see these every morning, then all you need to do is sign up for the daily video service and you can do that here. If you're thinking of doing that then I'd suggest doing that soon, as a week or two after our website upgrade our plan is to increase the price for new subscribers. The current plan is to do that website upgrade is this coming weekend. No price rises will ever be applied to an existing subscriber as long as their subscription is continuous.

On SPX yesterday the low was 2077, slightly above my target in the 2074 area but maybe close enough. The key levels today are the ES weekly pivot at 2083.2 (approx 2087/8 SPX), and the SPX 50 hour MA at 2091 (approx 2086/7 ES). Under these levels this current pullback can go lower, above then the lean would be higher. Over 2092 ES (approx 2096/7 SPX) I'd be looking for a retest of the current high high at 2111 and likely marginally higher.

ES Jun 60min chart:
NQ Jun 60min chart:
TF Jun 60min chart:
DX Jun 60min chart:
CL Jun 60min chart:
GC Apr 60min chart:
ZB Jun 60min chart:
I'm looking for a short term topping pattern to form here and given that about 70% of reversal patterns on SPX are some kind of double top or bottom, there are decent odds that we will see a retest of the 2011 swing high after the current pullback completes. Ideally that would go a little lower but it may have already bottomed out.

FOMC days today and tomorrow of course. Historically these don't tend to be big red days, and I'm not expecting to see one of those today or (assuming that the Fed don't raise interest rates from almost nothing to very slightly more than almost nothing) tomorrow.

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