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Thursday, 17 March 2016

Returning To The Scene Of The Crime

The overnight high on ES was at 2027.25, which was a close match with my target range high at 2026/7 that I gave in my post yesterday morning. A 60min sell signal fixed on ES at the high and ES has made a candidate rally high there in my view. We'll see whether the bears can follow through on that in the next few days by breaking the rising channel, forming a large reversal pattern and then breaking down from that reversal pattern. Time will tell.

Needless to say much of the interesting action happened while most were asleep. It's been that kind of a week. When I sat down at my desk this morning at 5.15am EDT, and logged into my RTH trading office at www.princetontrader.com,  the morning crowd was still a little thin to say the least, and this was the full comment stream over the next hour:

  • shjack_charts (05:15:27 AM): ES on a 5min sell signal
  • shjack_charts (05:16:41 AM): On this break below 23 the small double top target is 18.75
  • shjack_charts (05:17:37 AM): On a break below 19 the larger double top target would be 10.75
  • shjack_charts (05:22:23 AM): 5min sell trying to fix at target
  • shjack_charts (05:27:02 AM): The 5min sell signal made target
  • shjack_charts (05:46:54 AM): shjack_charts (05:16:41 AM): On this break below 23 the small double top target is 18.75 - TARGET MADE
  • shjack_charts (06:12:30 AM): shjack_charts (05:17:37 AM): On a break below 19 the larger double top target would be 10.75 - TARGET MADE
  • shjack_charts (06:12:54 AM): .... and everyone still asleep. It's been that kind of a week

That was the sweetest hour of tape all week in my view and it would have been friendlier if ES had delivered that in regular trading hours. That's the way of the world though. If you'd like to come and trade with the team at Princeton Trader, or you just like making more money while you trade, you can take a two week free trial from this page here.

One thing you can generally count on after an FOMC that has moved the markets significantly, even when the news has been as huge as (ahem) Yellen's announcement yesterday that the four proposed interest tiny rate rises this year (that were never likely to actually happen) have been scaled down to two proposed tiny interest rate rises this year (that are never likely to actually happen), is that within 24 hours there should be a 'Return To The Scene Of The Crime' retest of the level before the news event. That level is at 2002 are there was a determined attempt to reach it overnight. Decent odds that we see that retest today:
The short term setup at the close yesterday was pretty bearish, as you can see on my SPX 15min chart. There's a similar setup on NDX. This was one of the fifteen or so Wednesday update charts that I did last night for subscribers at theartofchart.net, and the wedge support test was at the 2014 level at the close last night. Obviously that trendline is rising so a test this morning would be at a lower level than a test this afternoon. SPX 15min chart:
The main channel support trendline on SPX closed the day yesterday in the 2008 area, and that is rising at 9-10 handles per day. The top priority for the bear side this morning is to break that trendline. If it can be broken then I would be reading this as a likely rising wedge break, as an alternate possible wedge resistance trendline has been established and would be confirmed on a break below what would then be wedge support. A powerful daily RSI 5_NYMO sell signal is brewing on the SPX daily chart now but bears need to deliver some support breaks before it can fix. SPX daily chart:
Today is a cycle trend day, so there are 70% odds that the day will be dominated by either buyers or sellers, though this does not always mean a full trend day up or down. As this is an inflection point it is particularly important to both sides to try and capture the day. The bears start with the advantage today. We'll see if they can manage not to drop the ball.

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