- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
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Thursday, 31 March 2016

Looking at the RUT Triangle

The short term patterns on SPX, NDX and RUT from Tuesday's Yellen spike broke down and are forming likely bull flags here. I'm expecting to see those go a bit lower today before breaking up to at least test yesterday's highs. They may reverse at that retest. The ES chart looks supportive of that scenario, though I'm struggling to find another chart to back that up. ES Jun 60min chart (from last night):
If we do see more retracement today the main support I'd like to see hit would be the 50 hour MA on SPX, currently in the 2045 area, though that might be too ambitious. SPX 60min chart:

Now that the rally has extended upwards the question is obviously where how far equity indices will run before reversing. The clearest setup here is on RUT, where a triangle has broken up, retested on Tuesday, and is now in a final thrust up that should be entirely retraced after that thrust ends. These are termination moves so the question then is where the triangle thrust is likely to end. RUT 15min chart:
RUT tested the lower target for the asymmetric double bottom yesterday at 1118, and that could be it. However there is a good trendline case for thinking that a rising wedge is now forming on RUT, and if so trendline resistance would currently be a match with the higher double bottom alternate target in the 1132 area. I won't show the daily chart today but if RUT makes it to the 1132 area then I'd note that there is a larger degree possible channel resistance trendline that I've been looking at in Chart Chat for the last few weeks that is currently in the 1142 area. That could be the main target now. RUT 60min chart:
Yesterday turned out to be a very nice two way day in the end, so the cycle trend day didn't deliver. The other cycle trend day this week is today and the obvious path today would be a morning low followed by a move that would at least retest yesterday's high. The stats lean bearish today though, with Dow down 16 of the last 27 last trading days of Q1, so we could just chop around with a bearish lean today. The stats for tomorrow lean strongly bullish. If the bears want to do any significant technical damage today they need to push SPX back under 2040. On the overall setup here I won't be holding my breath waiting for that.

Wednesday, 30 March 2016

Stuffed Shirts and Paper Tigers

That was an unexpectedly doveish speech from Yellen yesterday, even by Fed standards. Shrugging off the fairly impressive economic numbers recently Yellen damped down expectations of any interest rates rises in the near future, which wasn't that unexpected, but then talked about the Fed being ready to use unconventional tools to stimulate the economy if necessary, which managed to leave a lot of pundits under the impression that the Fed is considering that possibility in the near future.

It could be that Yellen knows something about the jobs numbers on Friday that the rest of us haven't seen yet but, unless that is the case then, even by the standards of the organization that attributed the dotcom speculative bubble to a rational revaluation in the face of huge gains in productivity from IT, and then decided after that bubble burst that encouraging a real estate boom would be a great way to escape the resulting recession, introducing QE4 here would be a wildly reckless, even lunatic, policy move.

However talk is cheap of course, and while starting QE4 in the near future might be a lunatic policy move, just raising the possibility here commits the Fed to nothing, while raised expectations can move the markets without any concrete action. We'll see what numbers come out in the next few days and I'll be watching the numbers on Friday with particular interest to see whether they disappoint hard.
SPX has made a new rally high at the open this morning and a daily RSI5_NYMO sell signal is now brewing. If we see a decent reversal back down soon then we could now therefore get a very strong short term sell signal to set up a decent retracement.

What are the resistance levels overhead? Well I have trendline resistance in the 1973-5 area today and the IHS target is of course at 2082. SPX is close to testing the first and could test the second. I wouldn't like to see any move significantly over 2082, as that could signal a possible blowoff top to the rally from 1810. SPX daily chart:
Looking at the futures charts this morning all of ES, NQ and TF are looking overbought here but none are showing any negative RSI divergence on the 60min chart. That is suggesting higher though it doesn't require it. ES Jun 60min chart:
Today and tomorrow are cycle trend days, and that means that there are 70% odds of a directional day dominated by either buyers or sellers, though that need not be a full trend day in the usual sense. As I've mentioned before, it is very hard calling the direction on these. I'm obviously looking for a possible strong rejection down today but we'll have to see how that goes.

Tuesday, 29 March 2016

Ho Hum

My apologies for the late post today. I'm a bit sleep deprived and today feels like I am wading through treacle getting anything done. I'll be getting an early night tonight.

So where is the topping process now? Well the 50 hour MA on SPX held as resistance yesterday, but is being tested again today on the very doveish Yellen speech. If there is a sustained break above then I'll be looking for a retest of the current rally high at 2056.60. On another fail at the 50 hour MA I'd be looking at a possible test of the possible H&S neckline in the 2005 area. SPX 60min chart:
The H&S setup on ES is a lot better formed and could still play out, but the left shoulder is already looking extended and a strong move down would need to start very soon. ES Jun 60min chart:
As I've been mentioning, as reversal patterns on SPX double tops and bottoms outnumber H&S patterns by more than two to one. Some kind of retest of the high to set up a double top here would therefore be the rule rather than the exception. We may well see that retest shortly. If so I'd normally be looking for a slightly higher high to set up daily sell signals.

Monday, 28 March 2016

Topping Is A Process

I was saying on Thursday morning that predicting the direction on a cycle trend day was a very chancy business and so it was on Thursday. Despite tiny up volume at the open on Thursday the low of the day was in the first few minutes, and while it wasn't a trend up day, buyers dominated the tape until the close. Thursday was an excellent example of a cycle trend day that wasn't a full trend day in all respects, very much including the unexpected direction.

Moving onto today, the first thing that I would note from the SPX 60min chart is that the very important 50 hour MA was gapped through on Friday and was retested as resistance at the open today. That's in the 2040 area now and a decent break back over that would open a retest of the current rally high at 2056.60. That would most likely make the second high of a double top though it might go a little higher in that event of course. If the 50 hour MA holds as resistance today, then on a break below Thursday's low I would have an H&S target in the 1990 area, and would be watching the possible larger H&S necklines in the 2005 and 1970 areas. SPX 60min chart:
There's a similar setup on the ES chart. This is the one I did for subscribers last night but not much has changed in practical TA terms since then. ES Jun 60min chart:
The new ES weekly pivot is at 2029.70, and that is a close match with resistance at the SPX 50 hour MA at 2040. That should be the key level today. If it holds as resistance then both will go down. If bulls can break back above and convert those to support, then both will go up. The bigger picture is pointing firmly down for at least a strong retrace, but a rally that has taken six weeks doesn't tend to turn on a dime. I'm looking for a reversal pattern here and I've mentioned before that double tops/bottoms outnumber H&S patterns on SPX by more than two to one. We could very much still see a retest of that 2056.60 SPX high before the main decline gets going.

Thursday, 24 March 2016

The Hard Spike Down

I was saying a couple of days ago that topping processes tend to start with a hard spike down and here we are. SPX and ES broke their rising wedges yesterday and then spent most of the day testing the strong support in the 2035 area that I mentioned in the morning. That has broken overnight and as long as that holds as resistance today, that opens up the downside towards the obvious targets at the big support levels and possible H&S necklines in the 2005 and 1970 areas. SPX 60min chart:
On SPX the 2035/6 support level yesterday was at the 50 hour MA. On ES that level is the weekly pivot at 2026.40 and as long as that area holds as resistance today ES is headed lower. ES Jun 60min (last night's chart for TAOC subscribers):
Today is a cycle trend day, which means that there are 70% odds that the day will be a strongly directional day dominated by either buyers or sellers. This does not need to be a full trend day. I mention regularly that predicting the direction of these is a very chancy business, but the opening up volume is a tiny 7%, so a trend up day would be hard to deliver today. A full trend down day would be much easier on this setup and we could well see that today. If so I'll be looking for possible support in the 2005 SPX / 1995 ES area. Everyone have a great long weekend :-)

Wednesday, 23 March 2016

Testing Wedge Support

I've been waiting patiently for the rising wedges on SPX and ES to confirm this week with tests of the wedge support trendlines and both have been tested and held so far this morning. It may be that these will hold today and if so, then we might well see a retest of yesterday's highs.

If wedge support breaks then there is quite a bit to suggest a trend down day today, though nothing fixed as yet. A support break like this would often go directly into a hard spike down, there is an open SPX 60min RSI 14 sell signal that is nowhere near target, the up volume so far at 16% is very low and at a level often seen on trend down days, and the short term buy signals that fixed at the first lows this morning are showing no sign of making target so far. On trend days most or all short term counter-trend buy or sell signals tend to fail. We'll see.

My bull/bear level for today is conversion of the ES weekly pivot at 2026.40, so about 2035 SPX. If bears can convert that to resistance then we likely trend down towards obvious targets in the 2020 and 2000 areas. That kind of move would start off a topping process here very nicely. SPX 60min chart:
ES Jun 60min chart:
I'm leaning towards the bears today but only if they can break below that wedge support, which they haven't managed so far. If they can't break it then a retest of yesterday's highs will very much be on the table.

Tuesday, 22 March 2016

The Missing Unicorn

It is highly likely that SPX is close to the rally high here, or has made it already, and that at minimum SPX should now be the topping process for that rally. As well as the various patterns and divergences a 60min sell signal fixed at the open this morning, and the volume spike seen on Friday tends to be the market equivalent of the 'black spot' at predicting the imminent death of short term trends.

On the daily chart below there are nine previous instances of this kind of volume spike, and all of them were at or slightly before a significant high or low. The smallest move after the high or low was made on any of those nine instances was 80 handles on the bounce in December 2015.

Of the five previous examples before significant lows, four of those involved more than one volume spike before the turn, but all four previous instances before a high needed only one volume spike day. Three of those made the swing high that day and the other made a marginal new high four days later just 15 handles higher, before dropping over 100 handles in the five days after that. SPX daily chart:
I was asked yesterday afternoon whether I was sure that SPX was making a high here and this was my reply below, which I think put my view across well:

  • shjack_charts [03:06:09 PM]: I hear you
  • shjack_charts [03:06:25 PM]: I'd offer you certainty but it rode off on my unicorn

There is no such thing as certainty in market terms, though that doesn't prevent people searching for it. There are quite a number offering it too but as far as I'm aware they're all fools, or frauds, or both. What we have instead of certainty is an ability to consider the relative odds of particular outcomes, and the odds are very much stacked against the bulls managing to take this rally much higher from here. Could the much lower probability outcome happen anyway? Of course it could. That is the nature of relative probabilities, but it isn't likely.

SPX rising wedge support is now at 2032 and I'm expecting to see that level tested and very possibly broken today or tomorrow. We'll see how that goes.

ES rising wedge support is currently in the 2024 area and the ES weekly pivot is slightly above at 2026.40 (2035 SPX area). I'm watching those levels with great interest today. ES Jun 60min chart:
On thing I'm not seeing yet is the reversal pattern that should form before the large decline that should be coming our way soon. I think we'll be forming that this week and we may yet see a higher high made as part of that process. I'm looking for an AM high and strong fail from there today.

An announcement for this week. On Thursday after the close Stan and I are doing a free public webinar on 'Trader Psychology - Pitfalls and Remedies' with Mike Vacchi of www.princetontrader.com. That should be interesting and entertaining as well as educational and all are welcome. If you are one of the many under the impression that there is any such thing as certainty in trading then I would strongly recommend that you attend, though we'll be talking about several other trading delusions and trader psychology fails in the webinar as well. You can sign up for the webinar at the bottom of this page here.

Monday, 21 March 2016

Some Retracement Likely Today

The ES weekly pivot is at 2025 this week and that is in the SPX 2034 area. I'm leaning towards a test of that area today or tomorrow morning because this generally gets tested during a trading week, and the RSI sell signals on the 15min chart and the RSI 5 sell signal on the 60min SPX chart are suggesting that we likely see that test in the next few trading hours before any significant further upside progress.

Longer term though there is currently no negative divergence on the 60min RSI 14 or on the daily chart RSIs so that is suggesting that the rally high is not yet in. SPX 60min chart:
Resistance at the 200dma has been broken and unless SPX breaks back down through that quickly then the big target above is the IHS target in the 2082 area. SPX could well now make that target. SPX daily chart:
The short summary for last week was that the weekly pivot was tested early, held as support, and SPX then trended up for the rest of the week. I'm expecting an early test of the weekly pivot this week as well, and if it holds as support again, we could see a rerun of last week. I'll be watching that test carefully.

Friday, 18 March 2016

Engine Trouble

I was saying yesterday that SPX was in an inflection point, and the direction of the resolution was important, and the bears then immediately dropped the ball at the open to allow the cycle trend day to deliver a strong trend up day. This has brought SPX up to another inflection area in the 2040-50 range that was range support February through July last year, and that is being tested hard this morning. If bulls break through it that opens up the IHS target in the 2082 area and a possible retest of the all time high at 2134.

Very late post today as I was having engine trouble this morning and only got to my desk about an hour before the open. To keep any further delay to a minimum I'm going to use the seven futures charts that I posted for theartofchart.net subscribers this morning, and I like to post these here every so often in any case to give an update of where the other main instruments DX, CL, GC and ZB are, as I no longer cover these regularly on this blog. If you are trading DX, CL and ZB particularly I'd recommend that you have a careful look at the respective charts below. If you'd like to see these every morning you can subscribe to our daily video service (also including nightly video updates from Stan) on this page here.

ES Jun 60min chart:
NQ Jun 60min chart:
TF Jun 15min chart:
DX Jun 60min chart:
CL May 60min chart:
GC Mar 60min chart:
ZB Jun 60min chart:
Bears aren't inspiring much confidence so far today, and if that continues into bulls converting 2050 SPX into support then this could squeeze quite a bit higher today. Until we see 2050 converted though the setup and stats for days following trend days favor at least some retracement today and that's what I'm looking for today. We'll see how that goes.

Stan and I, and also Mike Vacchi from www.princetontrader.com are doing a free educational webinar next Thursday on Trader Psychology - Pitfalls and Remedies, and that should be well worth attending. You can sign up for that on this page here. On the same page are also videos from the monthly public Chart Chat Stan and I did on March 6th and others that you might find of interest. Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Thursday, 17 March 2016

Returning To The Scene Of The Crime

The overnight high on ES was at 2027.25, which was a close match with my target range high at 2026/7 that I gave in my post yesterday morning. A 60min sell signal fixed on ES at the high and ES has made a candidate rally high there in my view. We'll see whether the bears can follow through on that in the next few days by breaking the rising channel, forming a large reversal pattern and then breaking down from that reversal pattern. Time will tell.

Needless to say much of the interesting action happened while most were asleep. It's been that kind of a week. When I sat down at my desk this morning at 5.15am EDT, and logged into my RTH trading office at www.princetontrader.com,  the morning crowd was still a little thin to say the least, and this was the full comment stream over the next hour:

  • shjack_charts (05:15:27 AM): ES on a 5min sell signal
  • shjack_charts (05:16:41 AM): On this break below 23 the small double top target is 18.75
  • shjack_charts (05:17:37 AM): On a break below 19 the larger double top target would be 10.75
  • shjack_charts (05:22:23 AM): 5min sell trying to fix at target
  • shjack_charts (05:27:02 AM): The 5min sell signal made target
  • shjack_charts (05:46:54 AM): shjack_charts (05:16:41 AM): On this break below 23 the small double top target is 18.75 - TARGET MADE
  • shjack_charts (06:12:30 AM): shjack_charts (05:17:37 AM): On a break below 19 the larger double top target would be 10.75 - TARGET MADE
  • shjack_charts (06:12:54 AM): .... and everyone still asleep. It's been that kind of a week

That was the sweetest hour of tape all week in my view and it would have been friendlier if ES had delivered that in regular trading hours. That's the way of the world though. If you'd like to come and trade with the team at Princeton Trader, or you just like making more money while you trade, you can take a two week free trial from this page here.

One thing you can generally count on after an FOMC that has moved the markets significantly, even when the news has been as huge as (ahem) Yellen's announcement yesterday that the four proposed interest tiny rate rises this year (that were never likely to actually happen) have been scaled down to two proposed tiny interest rate rises this year (that are never likely to actually happen), is that within 24 hours there should be a 'Return To The Scene Of The Crime' retest of the level before the news event. That level is at 2002 are there was a determined attempt to reach it overnight. Decent odds that we see that retest today:
The short term setup at the close yesterday was pretty bearish, as you can see on my SPX 15min chart. There's a similar setup on NDX. This was one of the fifteen or so Wednesday update charts that I did last night for subscribers at theartofchart.net, and the wedge support test was at the 2014 level at the close last night. Obviously that trendline is rising so a test this morning would be at a lower level than a test this afternoon. SPX 15min chart:
The main channel support trendline on SPX closed the day yesterday in the 2008 area, and that is rising at 9-10 handles per day. The top priority for the bear side this morning is to break that trendline. If it can be broken then I would be reading this as a likely rising wedge break, as an alternate possible wedge resistance trendline has been established and would be confirmed on a break below what would then be wedge support. A powerful daily RSI 5_NYMO sell signal is brewing on the SPX daily chart now but bears need to deliver some support breaks before it can fix. SPX daily chart:
Today is a cycle trend day, so there are 70% odds that the day will be dominated by either buyers or sellers, though this does not always mean a full trend day up or down. As this is an inflection point it is particularly important to both sides to try and capture the day. The bears start with the advantage today. We'll see if they can manage not to drop the ball.

Wednesday, 16 March 2016

The Fed Often Barks But Rarely Bites

FOMC is the big wild card today of course and it seems fairly clear that the market isn't expecting a rate rise for quite a while. I suspect that's exactly right but that is the likely reality rather than the perception. From the Fed perspective they have at least demonstrated last year that they can remember how to raise rates, and the credibility from that tiny uptick then gives any barking they do now about the possibility of them biting again with another tiny rate rise at least some credibility. The guidance given before this meeting today suggests that Yellen will be talking tough today on possible interest rate rises coming and if she follows through on that guidance then there may be a negative market reaction at 2pm. We'll see.

SPX didn't make the obvious target at the 2000 retest yesterday and isn't showing much sign so far of testing that today. Rising channel support close yesterday at 2000 so unless that test is in the first 90 minutes today that test would then be below channel support. That said, the rising channel on RUT broke down yesterday and I'm not expecting the SPX rising channel to survive the end of this week.
SPX 60min chart:
I'm still expecting at least a retest of the 2015 high on ES today but I am wondering about the setup on NQ below where the setup is looking like a possible rally high. We'll see how that goes today. NQ Jun 60min chart:
My ideal day today would be a run up to new rally highs on ES and SPX this morning before a hard fail on FOMC that would then break the rising channel and set up a possible retest of the last short term swing low and possible H&S neckline at 1969. Will that happen? There's only one way to find out for sure. :-)

Tuesday, 15 March 2016

The Low Before The High

SPX is doing the retrace I was looking at yesterday morning and I have a small double top target in the 2000 area, with possible support on the way in the 2003/4 area at the weekly pivot. Unless bears can convert the weekly pivot to resistance, and then break rising channel support in the 1990 area, then I'm expecting this retrace to be a final retrace before the move to the possible rally high, ideally under the 2035 SPX ceiling that I was talking about yesterday morning, but possibly just a retest of yesterday's high at 2024.57 and marginal new high, before at least a strong retracement and very possibly a rally high. SPX 60min chart:
ES Jun 60min chart:
What are the odds that SPX will make a rally high here rather than in the 2082 IHS target area? I'm thinking about 65% yes to 35% no, but either way I think we should see a significant short term high here. How far the retracement from that high goes we would then see.

I'm going to be doing a bit of promo work on theartofchart.net this week, highlighting a few of the very nice calls we've been making there in recent weeks on bonds, gold, SPX, USD, nat gas, sugar etc etc. I'll go through some of those in more detail tomorrow but in the meantime there are some excellent free videos on our March Trader Education page and if you're interested you can see those here.

Monday, 14 March 2016

Testing the 200dma

I've been working on various charts over the weekend and the first thing to mention today is that both of the rising wedges from the lows on SPX and RUT have now evolved into rising channels. That means that while there are still good reasons for both to reverse back down in this area, that there is no longer a pattern reason to expect either to be topping here, and on a sustained break over the current resistance areas on both, then there is another obvious target area above on both. I'll walk through the levels on each below.

On SPX resistance here is at the 200dma at 2020, the monthly middle band at 2032, and the 50 week MA at 2033. On a sustained break above these the obvious next target area would be around the IHS target in the 2082 area, which would be a decent match with the daily upper band, now at 2075. SPX 60min chart:
On RUT resistance here is at the the current rally high at 1094.50, possible falling channel resistance from 1205 currently at the same level, the weekly middle band also at the same level, and the 100dma at 1098. On a break above this area there is a bit of possible resistance at the 61.8% fib retrace in the 1105 area and the daily upper band in the 1108 area, but the next main target and resistance cluster would be around 1150, with declining (channel) resistance from the all time high there, joined by the 200dma at 1152, and backstopped by the 50 and 100 week MAs in the 1167/8 area, and the monthly mid band also in the 1167 area. RUT 60min chart:
The NDX wedge has not evolved into a rising channel and has formed a decent double top, so that supports a turn in this area. We shall see. If we are to see a turn in this area I'd ideally be looking for some retracement and then a marginal higher high that did not exceed 2035 on SPX or 1097 on RUT.

Friday, 11 March 2016

The Ugly Ducklings

Late post today as I'm not feeling great. TGIF :-)

I'm having trouble with stockcharts today so I'm going with the futures charts that I posted before the open for subscribers at theartofchart.net. These make the point that I want to make today pretty well in any case.

That point is that on the three indices that I chart in detail on both RTH and their futures equivalents, the rally has delivered much the same pattern setup, albeit with them at slightly different stages. Mother duck, as it were, is SPX/ES, leading the others in this rising wedge that has broken down, formed a bull flag channel or megaphone for a likely retest of the high as part of a topping pattern, and then broken up from that flag. NDX/NQ and RUT/TF, the ugly ducklings trailing behind, both also need a retest of the high and likely marginal new highs to complete the structure. Neither are too far away now, but if they do that SPX may well be driven up into the 2020s. ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF Mar 60min chart:
Either way we should be very close now to at least a short term high. The 200dma is at 2020 on SPX today and I'm not expecting to see a strong closing break over that. We'll see how that goes as so far this has been developing as a classic trend up day. Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Thursday, 10 March 2016

Retesting The Rally High

I'm using two of the charts that I did for theartofchart.net chart service subscribers last night and things are running pretty much according to plan, though we should still see a retest of the current rally high in regular trading hours (RTH), and obviously that can't happen before the start of RTH. The rally may fail at that retest or run a bit higher, but so far this week everything has gone according to the roadmap that Stan and I were laying out in the public Chart Chat we did last Sunday. You can see the recording for that here, and the section on equity indices is at the start. So far the roadmaps on DX, CL, GC, ZB, NG and SB all looking pretty good as well, though the standout pattern for me was the falling wedge / bull flag setup I was showing on TLT which has been delivering beautifully.

On the SPX 60min chart I'd particularly note the strong support at the 50 hour MA. That closed yesterday at 1985 and the a serious break of that support MA should signal that this rally high is in. As I said, we should really see at least an RTH retest of the rally high before that happens. SPX 60min chart:
Obvious the weekly pivot on ES at 1976.3 held like a champ. If we see a break below that today or tomorrow then again, the rally is likely over. ES Mar 60min chart (from last night):
I have the SPX 200dma at 2021 and and am looking for a final high for this move ideally somewhere between the current high at 2011 and the 200dma at 2021. A sustained break over the 200dma seems unlikely but would be bullish.

I'll be rolling onto the ES June contract for tomorrow's post.

Wednesday, 9 March 2016

High Retest Likely

The rising wedge on SPX broke down yesterday and SPX should now be in the topping process, though there is still room above for a possible test of the 200dma, currently in the 2022 area. There is a falling channel from the high that is a likely bear flag, and when that flag breaks up on SPX I am expecting at least a retest of the current rally high. Flag resistance is currently in the 1993 area. SPX 15min chart:
On ES the rising wedge has not yet broken down at the time of writing, with rising support and the weekly pivot (at 1976.3) tested together at yesterday's low at 1976. The next obvious targets within the wedge are a retest of the high or wedge resistance currently in the 2018 area. Flag resistance on ES is currently in the 2000 area. ES Mar 60min chart:
Main support today is still the weekly pivot on ES at 1976.30 (approx 1997/8 SPX). Assuming that support area holds I'm looking for a retest of the current rally highs in the next couple of days. Main resistance today is the 1993/4 ES (approx 1994/5 SPX) that has held every attempt to break over it since Monday night, and that resistance needs to break to open up a retest of the rally high. Stan and I are looking for this next high to be the last on this rally. We were looking at that in detail in the public Chart Chat on Sunday, and you can see the recording of that here.

Tuesday, 8 March 2016

Bonus Charts Today

Running late today, the picture on SPX is mixed, and I've been getting a few requests for updated pictures on gold, bonds etc in recent days so I'm reposting here the seven charts I posted for daily video subscribers at theartofchart.net this morning. ES, NQ and TF all looking for a bounce before possible further downside. We'll see how that develops and I'd note that the possible symmetrical triangle on SPX that appeared to be forming at the close yesterday is breaking down this morning.

The last four charts are for DX, CL, GC and ZB with my current take on those. All looking interesting today with all of them close to significant inflection points. If you'd like to see these every morning then you can sign up for the daily video service here. Stan also does that daily video every night and there is a private twitter feed where shorter term updates are posted as well.

If you want a broader view on these instruments there is a video posted of our monthly free Chart Chat that we did on Sunday and you can see that here.

ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF Mar 60min chart:
DX Mar 60min chart:
CL Apr 60min chart:
GC Mar 60min chart:
ZB Jun 60min chart:
I currently have ES rising wedge support in the 1972 area and that is a match with the ES weekly pivot at 1974 (1976 SPX area). Unless that level is broken I'm looking for at least a retest of the current rally high before a possible serious reversal back down.

Monday, 7 March 2016

Retracement Targets

I overslept this morning and am doing a quick post to get it out as close as possible to the open. For a more detailed view I'd suggest watching the recording of last night's public Chart Chat at theartofchart.net, and you can see that on this page here.

There is now a very nicely formed rising wedge on the SPX chart, and the next obvious target within the wedge is wedge support, which closed the week in the 1975 area. For me that's the obvious target today though there is some decent support above that may hold. I'd note that I do have a less well formed variant of this wedge where the wedge has already overthrown bearishly. SPX 15min chart:
For speed I'm using the ES chart I was showing in Chart Chat last night. In the event that it is reached I have ES wedge support in the 1962 area, and if reached, that will likely break. ES Mar 60min:
Stan and I are both thinking that this is just a retracement before a likely test of the 200dma on SPX. That's now in the 2022 area. If wedge support at 1962 ES breaks that becomes less likely. Stan has a support level in the 1986 ES area that has held overnight and could be the low for this retracement if it continues to hold today.