- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Friday 30 December 2016

Goodbye to 2016

It's been an interesting year on equities this year, with plenty of thrills and spills, and with some extremely dull periods where volatility almost vanished. Not the easiest year to trade, but generally something interesting happening, even if that was only a record-challenging period of very little volatility like the one we saw in the summer.

There were some big surprises over the year. the UK voted to leave the EU unexpectedly and the expected equities meltdown that the financial news had been talking about endlessly only lasted a couple of days. Donald Trump won the Presidency unexpectedly, and the expected meltdown that the financial news had been talking about endlessly only lasted a couple of hours. What did this mean? Mainly that watching the financial news is generally a waste of time, but most of us already knew that.

My January stat system called another flat to down year this year and we didn't see that. The closing print of 2015 was 2043.94 and while there was a bit of leeway of up to 3% up on the year, that only extended the target window to 2105. Depending where SPX lands at the close today the 10% rise target at 2248.33 is definitely within range, though the AM action so far isn't that encouraging for longs today. This is the first fail on this stat in 44 years, but it was also the first signal to fix the year after another signal so maybe that was it. As with any statistic though, the track record only remains perfect until you reach the first exception. In markets and trading there is really very little certainty, and what little there is is mainly the (almost) certain knowledge that anyone promising certainty is a fool or a fraud, or both (generally a politician in that case :-).

Coming into the open today the prospects for today were looking decent for bulls, with a perfect bull flag channel formed on ES and a decent looking (bullish leaning) triangle on TF. The support trendlines for both died shortly after the RTH open though, which is not promising for bulls next week. Those support breaks haven't followed through so far today, but they may well follow through next week. The next obvious target areas below on ES are the 2225 then 2215 areas, and on TF the next obvious support is possible full flag channel support there, currently in the 1340 area. ES Mar 6omin chart:
NQ has broken 4900 area support at the open and has gone deep enough to fail the fixed 60min buy signal there. NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF retested the three week low at 1352.50 on the opening move and that's still holding so far. TF Mar 60min chart:
On the last trading day off the year volume is low, interest is low, and after the first couple of hours volatility is apt to just dry up and blow away for lack of interest. Were these trendline breaks still significant regardless? Yes. Will ES & TF follow through hard today? Probably not. Little of interest has happened since the breaks and I won't be holding my breath this afternoon waiting for fireworks.

I'm going to leave you with a thought-provoking proposal for boosting the US economy attributed to Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report.
Could this be what Trump has in mind to revitalise the US economy in 2017? I've certainly heard worse proposals over the last ten years. It reminds me of the reply that George Best, a famous UK football player once made in response to a question asking what had happened to all the money he had made in his career. He replied that he'd spent a lot of money on drink, women and fast cars, but had just squandered the rest. A great english wit who has been sadly missed since his death from liver failure in 2005.

I'm working on a post I'm hoping to have out this weekend. I'll be posting the link on my twitter. Everyone have a Happy New Year and my next daily post here will be on Tuesday morning.

Thursday 29 December 2016

The Low Before The High

Just when you think the tape has gone into a persistent vegetative state it can sometimes surprise you, and ES did that yesterday with an unexpected trend down day. This is good news from a technical perspective as there is usually a spike down shortly before a significant high, and I was thinking that ES most likely didn't have the juice to manage that this week. We call this the low before the high, and, if this is that move, then we are looking for a low shortly into a retest of the all time high and likely marginal new high. If that marginal new high can be managed this week then the first day of 2017 may be the start of a significant decline.

Last night I was looking at the support trendline options and it looks as though first support may well hold, as yesterday's low was retested overnight with a marginal new low and a 60min buy signal has now fixed. If we see lower lows today then I have possible flag channel support in the 2238/9 area and I am expecting one or the other of these levels to hold. A break under 2235 opens up the downside and broken support turned resistance at the weekly pivot at 2260 is now resistance on the upside. ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ also delivered a marginal lower low and 60min buy signal overnight. NQ Mar 60min chart:
No lower low on TF but I'd like this to be a triangle, and my preferred triangle support trendline would have been broken by a lower low. If that holds then the next obvious target would be triangle resistance, currently in the 1381 area. If it breaks then we could see a move to possible flag channel support in the 1341 area. TF Mar 60min chart:
I won't be around much in the morning today as I have guests up.

Wednesday 28 December 2016

Low Volume Yawnfest?

The tape has been impressively dull, particularly in the afternoons, but everything is still on track, just moving really slowly.

ES has established good support at the weekly pivot at 2260 and the next obvious move is a retest of the high. If that doesn't happen in the first 90 minutes today though then locating a buyer and a seller to keep the tape moving might be a problem, judging from yesterday's action at least. The ATH is only six handles away at the time of writing, but on the tape we saw yesterday I'd describe that as deceptively close. ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ is testing the 5000 level. Expecting a retest of yesterday's high if ES manages an ATH retest, but the first test of a big level like this is often very strong resistance. NQ Mar 60min chart:
Triangle resistance on TF wasn't quite hit yesterday. Expecting to see that today and that's currently at 1382. I wouldn't expect a break up from the triangle in the absence of another reversal at that test but it's possible the triangle is complete. Trendlines on triangles can be rough. TF Mar 60min chart:
There's no particular reason not to expect a boring day today but I'm hoping we can at least manage a full test of the ATH on SPX/ES.

Tuesday 27 December 2016

Looking for Survivors

I hope everyone had as relaxing a weekend as I did. I had a very relaxing holiday weekend, though we've now reached the usual point of starting to clear up and looking dubiously at the usual mountains of leftovers.
I did a premarket video this morning and posted that on my twitter before the open. If you missed that you can see that here. I do these as part of our Daily Video Service at theartofchart.net with premarket charts, and updated charts in the evening. Stan does a video after the close. If you're interested in trying the service we do a two week free trial and you can find that here. We've now posted our 'Twelve Trades of Christmas' this year for subscribers only. Last year we scored a 75% win rate though we're not expecting to manage that every year. We'll be posting the results for this year's trades in March.

I posted the ES chart (for subscribers) on Friday night looking at a possible IHS with a target at 2271. Obviously that's looking pretty good so far. ES Mar 60min chart:
I mentioned on the NQ chart that the longer NQ failed to break down through clear double top support, the more likely it was that there was unfinished business above, and NQ has delivered a new ATH since the open. NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF is close to a test of possible triangle resistance at 1383.2 area. TF Mar 60min chart:
I'm not really expecting to see much of interest this week. I'm leaning long into a retest of the ATH on SPX/ES unless we see the weekly pivot at 2260 ES broken and converted to support. Volume and interest are likely to be low all week.

Friday 23 December 2016

Twas (The Day Before) The Day Before Christmas and ....

My expectations for the tape today aren't high. Volume will be low and we may not see much of interest on any markets before next week. Indices might avoid the vague upward drift we see on days like this so often, but it's unlikely there will be much in the way of nice intraday setups, and if you've been waiting for a low interest day to catch up on other work you're a bit behind on, paperwork, or even just some quality hours watching paint dry, then this might be a good day to do that.

Still, here we are, and I did a premarket video today that I posted on my twitter at the open. If you missed that then you can see that here. If the tape doesn't do the holiday drift up or just stop moving altogether, I'm leaning modestly bearish as long TF stays under the weekly pivot at 1370.50.

ES has been fighting over the weekly pivot since yesterday morning. Bulls looking as though they have a slight edge at the time of writing. ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ has barely moved in days. Looking at the AMZN, FB & AAPL, comprising 22% of the NDX weighting, the first two are in bearish leaning triangles and AAPL is testing strong resistance so it may well not move much today either.  NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF is the very bearish leaning chart today as TF broke below the weekly pivot yesterday morning and hasn't yet retested it. If TF doesn't break back above today then I'll have my eye on the possible flag channel support in the 1345 area that I mentioned yesterday. TF Mar 60min chart:
My schedule has been so busy this year that I've done hardly any of the weekend posts that I used to do regularly. I miss doing those and while I'm going to be using much of my free time from my lighter schedule into January for family and R&R, I'm also doing weekend posts this weekend and next to inform and entertain. The one I'm planning for tomorrow will be longer on the entertain side and I'm hoping will put a smile on a lot of faces tomorrow. I'll be posting that at the blog at theartofchart.net, which you can find here, and will post the link on my twitter after it's published.

Everyone have a great holiday and, in the event that you are not sensibly taking next week off,  my next post here will be on Tuesday morning. :-)

Thursday 22 December 2016

Ho Ho Ho Hum

The tape is low volume and has been pretty dull this week on indexes, particularly on NDX/NQ. Volume is unlikely to increase much before next week and the tape may well remain boring, though at the time of writing ES and TF are making a spirited attempt at converted the weekly pivots there to resistance, and if that attempt is successful then this might get more interesting, though it might just establish a tape just as boring with a different underlying bias.

Until we see ES and TF convert their weekly pivots to resistance my overall lean is towards seeing retests of the all time highs. Even in that case I'd note that the downside targets on ES and TF to establish ideal bull flag channels (to then retest the all time highs) would currently be in the 2238 and 1345 areas respectively. On weekly pivot conversions today then those (moving) targets would be the obvious next targets. If the indices head there then that move might be just as dull. I tweeted my premarket video today looking at the setups on ES, NQ, TF, DX, CL, NG, GC & ZB. As usual the indices were among the least interesting looking instruments to trade today. You can see that video here.

ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF Mar 60min chart:
I haven't mentioned the offer that we are running this week at theartofchart.net for discounted annual memberships as it's mainly to allow existing subscribers to lock in long term lower subscription prices, but it is available to anyone, so I should mention it here. We usually give two months free on all annual memberships but on only annual subscriptions made through December 26th we are giving an extra 20% discount using the discount code shown on this page here.

As I am finishing this post ES is testing support at the 2254 bull/bear line I gave a couple of days ago. If that breaks with any force then the odds of reaching the flag channel targets I gave above are high in my view. What happens at this inflection point likely decides the day today.

Tuesday 20 December 2016

The Inchworm Cometh

I didn't manage a post in RTH today, but I thought I'd use this opportunity to do an after-market post looking at the strong resistance that is (very slowly) being retested here on RUT and TF, and to review the shorter term setups forming as the market vaguely meanders towards those retests. 

On RUT the original rising channel expanded by a third into a new channel. This also intersects longer term rising wedge resistance on a pattern from the 2009 low. This is formidable resistance and I'm assuming this holds until demonstrated otherwise. I'd note here that while wedges and megaphones routinely overthrow at highs, channels tend not to. RUT daily chart: 
On SPX the current all time high is at rising wedge resistance. That too looks pretty solid. On the bigger picture SPX is currently slightly overthrowing decent looking rising wedge resistance on a pattern from the 2009 low, suggesting that a possible bull market high from that 2009 low is forming here. SPX daily chart: 
The tedious action today was a retracement of the overnight ramp. That formed a clear bull flag that should deliver at least a retest of this morning's high. SPX 1min chart: 
On ES this is the thrust up from the triangle with an obvious target at the retest of the all time high close above. The action so far is resolving into a rising wedge so far that is suggesting a retest and fail. ES Mar 60min chart: 
Overall the setup here is suggesting retests of the all time highs on Wednesday on SPX and NDX, and possibly RUT, though a lower high would be ok there and is a possibility. A retest and fail at the all time highs or at marginal new highs slightly above would set strong daily sell signals brewing and, on SPX/ES, would set up double top patterns looking for the 2218 area on SPX and the 2215 area on ES on a sustained break below Thursday's low at 2248 on SPX. The tape might be too slow to reach that target area in what remains of 2016, but my expectation is that target would likely be reached not long after. 

Monday 19 December 2016

Triangles within Triangles

Friday didn't go as I expected, with the bullish triangle breaking down and backtesting broken triangle support at the close. That was a distinctly bearish setup but the overnight action made it clear that all we have been seeing is since Friday morning is Friday morning's bullish leaning triangle evolve into a larger bullish leaning triangle. That has broken up at the open today and the normal sequence here would be a backtest back into the triangle, currently in progress, and then the main triangle thrust up with an obvious target at a retest of the all time high, and then after that thrust up completes, not necessarily at that retest, the thrust should be entirely retraced back to the 2257/8 area.

If we should now see a break below triangle support, currently in the 2252 area, then something else is happening, but for now my working assumption is that this triangle scenario will play out over the next day or three. ES Mar 60min chart:
On this scenario NQ should at least retest 4960, but unlike SPX/ES and RUT/TF, NQ has not found resistance at a major resistance trendline. There is strong resistance not far above the all time highs on the other two but not on NQ. NQ could potentially therefore go considerably higher and that's worth bearing in mind. NQ Mar 60min chart:
I don't have a good read on TF here, but I would say that on this setup I would normally expect to see a retest of 1352/3 next. That obviously wouldn't be a good fit with this ES triangle setup, and is a potential warning signal for bulls. Correlation between TF and the other two isn't strong though and often vanishes altogether for a day or two. TF Mar 60min chart:
Christmas is on Sunday and this is very much a holiday week. Volume will be light and getting lighter as the week goes on, Obviously the tape may slow down considerably.

Stan and I did our 2017 forecasts at theartofchart.net in webinars on Thursday and Friday and the recordings for those are posted on this page here. This week's free weekly call is posted here.

Friday 16 December 2016

Retest, Probably

No retest of the highs yesterday, but I'm still optimistic about seeing that today or Monday. ES and TF both look encouraging for seeing that, though NQ is showing a more bearish lean.

On ES there is a likely bullish triangle forming that should deliver a retest. I have triangle support currently in the 2253.5 area and will be looking for support there if reached. ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ is the joker in the pack today, with a perfect double top setup with an ideal target at the 38.2% fib retrace target. if we are going to see high retests on ES and TF without breaking this setup on NQ, then NQ is going to have to underperform the other two significantly today. That said, so far today NQ has been significantly underperforming against the other two. NQ Mar 60min chart:
Since I capped the TF chart below TF has broken up to 1380 and should be on the way to that high retest attempt. This is a bull flag break up which will make it close to the retest 80%+ of the time, though I'd note that on a conviction break above, the secondary flag target would be a lot higher.  TF Mar 60min chart:
SPX already made the ideal December high target earlier this week, so why is a retest important? Well without that retest on SPX there can be no negative RSI divergence on the daily RSI. On an exact retest of the high or better some really nice RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals start brewing on SPX. A lower high on RUT would be ok though, as there are already daily sell signals brewing there. A retest also delivers a lower risk short entry of course.

Stan and I did our webinar at theartofchart.net with forecasts on indices, currencies and bonds for next year and beyond yesterday, and if you missed that, the recording has been posted on this page here. We are doing a second webinar an hour after the close tonight with our forecasts for energies, metals and commodities and if you'd like to attend you can register for that on this page here.

Thursday 15 December 2016

Meanwhile, Back on Earth

Same old FOMC yesterday with a lot of wind, a lingering smell, and a vast amount of analysis of a move that was difficult to detect without a microscope, and is largely irrelevant to real world interest rates in any case. Moving on ...

SPX tested my target trendline for this move on Tuesday and I was watching for likely resistance there. With the 29 handle decline into yesterday's low from there I think it's fair to say that there is resistance there, and SPX may now be in the topping process for the December high, and as I've mentioned, we are expecting this high to last well into 2017.

SPX hasn't broken short term rising wedge support, and the action so far is suggesting we may well see the high retested today. My working assumption would be a marginal new all time high into lower lows under yesterday's low. SPX 60min chart:
TF spent all night under the weekly pivot but then broke up towards falling megaphone resistance. That has now broken with a target at the retest of the all time high. as with SPX, RUT is at serious trendline resistance so that may well be the second high of a double top. TF Dec 60min chart:
A retest of the all time highs on SPX/ES and RUT/TF today or tomorrow could well make the December high, and we're expecting that to be a significant high that won't be tested again for several months. We're actively looking for that high now & are doubtful about extensive further upside, though we do have some possible targets a bit higher on all of SPX, NDX and RUT.

Stan and I are doing public webinars with forecasts on a wide variety of instruments (including bonds) for 2017 at theartofchart.net an hour after the closes today and tomorrow. These are public and free to all and if you'd like to attend you can sign up for those on this page here.

Wednesday 14 December 2016

The Fed Wind Always Blows

FOMC day again today and as ever I'm astounded by the number of people hanging onto Yellen's every word, and what a market moving event this tends to be. Even more amazing is the importance that everyone seems to attach to the Fed's 'control' of interest rates, and in the event that they show a small sliver of backbone today and take the tiny step of increasing the fed rate from almost nothing to a little more than almost nothing, then this will be extensively debated over coming weeks as though it really matters.

The truth is though that the fed rate only really impacts very short term interest rates, and that anything longer term is determined by markets in the form of the yields on the ten year (TNX) and 30 year (TYX) treasuries. The Fed has little influence over these as far as I can tell, and doesn't appear to employ any technical analysts good enough to allow the Fed bigwigs to comment intelligently about them. On a good day their forecasts for these are fairly random, and on a bad day (late 2013) almost perfectly inaccurate. Anyone genuinely interested in bond yield direction should be watching Chart Chat at theartofchart.net twice a week, or at minimum coming to our December forecast for the next year, which this year (for indexes, bonds and currencies) is after the close tomorrow and free to all. You can register for that on this page here if you're interested.

In the event that a Fed analyst makes it to that webinar tomorrow, and then puts in a lot of follow up work on the high level TA we use, it's possible that in time he/she might improve enough as a bonds analyst to aspire to make coffee for the much better bonds analyst who is worthy to aspire to shine shoes for Stan and myself, but I doubt it. Apart from any other considerations I suspect that anyone at the Fed who shows signs of developing real world forecasting skills finds themselves having to find employment somewhere else before too long, to preserve the consensus they seem to value so highly there. Sheep are always happiest in a flock of course.  :-)

Some of you noticed the almost perfect test yesterday of the ideal December high target for SPX that I gave earlier this week. The reversal there strengthens that as a resistance area and it's now possible that SPX/ES and RUT/TF are topping out under their respective resistance trendlines. Unless we see those break up with confidence further upside on both is now very limited. I won't post those today as I looked at those in my premarket video at theartofchart.net this morning, and it would be better to watch that. You can see that here. I also look at DX, CL, NG, GC, ZB & GC in the video.

A test of rising support on ES is badly overdue. That's now in the 2256 area and would be an obvious target this morning, before we start getting wild FOMC spikes this afternoon. All three charts are the ones I used in the premarket video today. ES Mar 60min chart:
Not much change on NQ since I capped this chart three hours before the open. NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF is starting what should be a bullish underthrow of falling wedge / bull flag support, as long as key support at the weekly pivot at 1361.8 can't be broken and converted to resistance. the next obvious move would be a retest of the all time high on TF, and likely failure there. TF Mar 60min chart
We don't think the December highs are in on SPX/ES and RUT/TF yet, but unless we are going to see some strong trendlines break to open the upside, any higher highs this month are likely to be marginal.

Stan and I are doing webinars with forecasts on a wide variety of instruments (including bonds) for 2017 at theartofchart.net after the closes on Thursday and Friday. These are public and free to all and if you'd like to attend you can sign up for those on this page here.

Tuesday 13 December 2016

Still Watching RUT

Some bouncy action at the open this morning but not so much on RUT. The next obvious target on RUT is at wedge support, and RUT looks likely to hit that today. What happens there we'll have to see. RUT 60min chart:
On ES I was wondering about a retest of the high before the open and we've seen that. If ES breaks rising megaphone support that could be setting up a test of the weekly pivot at 2228/9, though I'm doubtful about this retracement going that deep.  ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ has made a higher high with real confidence. On a sustained break above megaphone resistance, currently 4965, NQ could make a run at 5000. Until then megaphone support, currently 4860 area, looks like unfinished business. NQ Mar 60min chart:
The obvious target on TF is the weekly pivot test 1361.8. The flag-like structure of the decline so far is suggesting that support should hold. TF Mar 60min chart:
Trading volume is likely to fall off dramatically after tomorrow into Xmas. That usually favors bulls to an extent at least.

Stan and I are doing webinars with forecasts on a wide variety of instruments for 2017 at theartofchart.net after the closes on Thursday and Friday. These are public and free to all and if you'd like to attend you can sign up for those on this page here.

Monday 12 December 2016

Canary In A Coal Mine

I posted the RUT 60min chart on Friday morning showing RUT testing a decent looking rising wedge resistance trendline and obviously expecting that to hold. If you were just watching SPX and NDX over the rest of the day you might well have assumed that the RUT wedge resistance was demolished by the bulls, but actually it held, and anyone shorting RUT from the Friday morning high had a pleasant if unexciting day.

What does this mean. Well firstly it's a reinforcement of something I mention regularly, in that correlations are hit and miss for trading purposes. If I think USD is headed higher I won't short GC, as the inverse correlation might fail even if I'm right about USD. I would always go long USD and cut out the middleman. That's why I didn't short ES on Friday because TF was hitting serious resistance, I shorted TF and had a pleasant day.

Secondly it means that this has all likely been short term topping action for the retrace that I'm looking for, and I think that's starting now, though these highs might still need a retest before the main retrace begins.

That said my expectations are modest. The retracement should only take a day or two and should be followed by a higher high, with an ideal target in the SPX 2277 area to make a high that should last a few months. We'll see how that goes.

RUT 60min chart:
As I'm using futures charts more often now and that's unlikely to change I've had a couple of queries from readers unfamiliar with the price differential from ES to SPX, NQ to NDX, or RUT to TF. I'm given that some thought and the best place to put the adjustment number is on the charts themselves. I've started doing that today and that adjustment number is on each of the charts below. Strangely the adjustment to apply to NQ for the NDX price today appears to be zero. That may well not be the case every day as these do vary a bit.

ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF Mar 60min chart:
Our working assumption here is that all the three indices are topping out for a modest retracement before the last leg up, and that this swing high should be made before Xmas or at the latest between Xmas and New Year. That may not be true on TF though, as the resistance it is stalled at here is actually the convergence of three resistance trendlines on timeframes running through into the monthly chart. TF may be making that swing high here, and if so will start to underperform the other two, as it was doing on Friday. in that case I'd be thinking TF would just retest the high there on the last leg up for SPX and NDX.

Stan and I are doing webinars with forecasts on a wide variety of instruments for 2017 at theartofchart.net after the closes on Thursday and Friday. These are public and free to all and if you'd like to attend you can sign up for those on this page here.

Friday 9 December 2016

Show and Tell

This has been a very impressive move upwards, particularly on RUT/TF, and I've heard a lot of talk that resistance is now irrelevant and that equity indices can now head to the moon without restraint. 

As it happens there is an opportunity to test that theory today, and I'm watching what happens here on RUT with great interest & I'm showing why on the third and last charts below. 

60min sell signals have fixed on all of ES, TF and RUT here, and ES is in a decent rising channel. The next obvious move is to channel support, currently in the 2229 area. ES Dec 60min chart: 
NQ is in a decent rising megaphone, and the next obvious target is megaphone support, currently in the 4810 area. NQ Dec 60min chart: 
I posted this rising wedge from the November low on Wednesday morning on RUT, and wedge resistance was tested at the open this morning. We'll see if that holds today. RUT 60min chart: 
RUT is also testing bigger picture resistance here. I drew this wedge on the RUT monthly chart in June talking about upside targets on RUT for the expected wave up that we are still in now. RUT is testing the high quality wedge resistance that I drew in then. RUT Monthly chart: 
We really should see equity indices retrace today or at least stall for a retracement on Monday. We shall see whether RUT will turn here at resistance or not. A break above could be a bearish overthrow of course, but sustained trade over 1400 would likely be a genuine break up over resistance. Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Thursday 8 December 2016

Looking For Retracement Here

Yesterday was a an unexpected trend day. Usually trend days arrive on Stan's cycle trend days but not always and yesterday was one of those exceptions. The double bottom targets that I gave on Monday morning for ES, NQ & TF have now all been made, and obviously this move is developing faster than I was expecting. This increases the odds of making the next significant high in mid to late December rather than January.

The trend day yesterday clarified the pattern setup here nicely on NQ & TF. Less so on ES, but that too is likely setting up for some retracement here. The obvious target would be rising support, currently in the 2218 area. ES Dec 60min chart:
NQ also likes a retracement here. NQ Dec 60min chart:
The main pattern that I'm watching here though is the beautiful rising wedge on TF. Wedge support is currently in the 1363 area and a break below should signal that the retracement is in progress. Until we see that break I have rising wedge resistance currently in the 1376/7 area, and that may be tested or overthrown before we see that break down. TF Dec 60min chart:
I'm looking for some retracement here, ideally today into the 2120-5 area on ES, and I'd expect a reversal there into higher highs. We'll see how that goes.

I tend to post the premarket video that I do for Daily Video Subscribers at theartofchart.net on twitter once or twice a week and I did that this morning. If you'd like to see that the link is here. That covers DX, CL, NG, GC & ZB as well of course.

Stan and I are doing a couple of webinars this month covering our expectations across a wide range of instruments in 2017. We are doing those after the close on Thursday and Friday next week and if you'd like to attend then you can register for those on this page here.