- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Friday, 25 September 2015

Backtest

I'm feeling much improved today, which is a great relief as I've really been feeling under the weather for almost the last two weeks. I'm expecting to have thrown this off entirely by Monday :-)

Stan and I did a free webinar looking at bollinger bands and RSI yesterday. The hour ran out quickly and we'll be following it up soon to add what we didn't have time to talk about yesterday. If you're interested you can see the recording of that webinar here, and much of what we are talking about on RSI you cannot see anywhere else, as Stan and I have developed or strongly refined ourselves most of the methods we are looking at. We also had some things to say about trends and TA that you will find interesting if you are at all interested in TA.

SPX bounced in the area that Stan and I identified in the morning, the expanded falling wedge I was looking for formed and then broke up, and at the time of writing SPX has retraced almost 38.2% of the move from 2020 to 1908. I'm favoring a bit higher before a failure into a lower low under yesterday's low, and the important resistance levels today for me are as follows:

  1. 1945 - 5 day MA (daily closing resistance)
  2. 1949 - Last significant high
  3. 1952 - 38.2% fib retracement
  4. 1956 - Daily middle band (daily closing resistance)
  5. 1960 - 50 hour MA
  6. 1965 - 50% fib retracement
  7. 1971 - 100 week MA
  8. 1978 - 61.8% fib retracement
  9. 2000 - Main falling channel resistance

Somewhere in the 1949-78 range I'm looking for a reversal into a move that should then test the 1867 low on SPX and most likely break it. SPX 60min chart:
Is the opening high going to hold today? Very possibly as that was a perfect retest of broken rising support on ES from yesterday's low. I would ideally like to see a retest of the globex high in the 1960 (SPX) area this morning but that may not happen. ES 5min chart:
TGIF! Everyone have a great weekend :-)

No comments:

Post a comment