- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Thursday, 23 July 2015

Topping Pattern Options

Back on the morning of Tuesday 7th July I drew the arrows below on the SPX daily chart as a possible path for the strong rally I thought we were likely to see in the near future. The rally went a little higher than I expected, but so far that has been a pretty decent guide for the market action since then. Have we therefore now seen a significant high? Maybe, but we'll need to see whether bears can break back down below 2044 to trigger the double top target in the 1954 area. In the short term I'm looking for a topping pattern here to take SPX lower to an area from where we might see that double top support test. SPX daily chart:
How's the chart I posted yesterday looking? Well SPX broke below the 50 hour MA yesterday and established a short term floor at 2110. If that holds then I'll be looking for a retest of the highs before another leg down towards the 2086-8 area on a break back below 2110.

Stan & I have been looking at SPX this morning and the path we think would be more likely is a test of the 38.2% fib retrace area (and possible H&S neckline) at 2101/2, then a rally to an ideal high in the 2114/5 area (that may well also retest broken channel support), then a break back below the H&S neckline with a target in the 2070 area (near the 76.4% fib retrace).

There is a third option where the 2101/2 area is hit and then the highs area retested and if we see that then the chances that we see a bullish breakout at the highs would be highest. SPX 60min chart:
I'm trying to answer tweets during the day but I'm only really checking the markets before the open and often don't have an internet connection here. I'm just running a few swing trades this week which are short ES from 2118 (2125 SPX), short DX from 98.2, and I just added long CL from 49.35. The DX and CL trades have been covered in Stan's videos posted on theartofchart.net. Stan and I are running open (to all) webinars looking at various markets including equities, oil, forex, precious metals on the next few Sundays and you can sign up for the first one on Sunday afternoon at theartofchart.net.

1 comment:

  1. eToro is the #1 forex broker for new and pro traders.

    ReplyDelete