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Monday, 13 July 2015

Tantalus Ate My Lunch

I was hoping that we would see much or all of the move to the triangle target on Friday as otherwise I feared that SPX would gap up into the target on Greek news. Annoyingly that's what happened so the Greeks ate my lunch again.

Is the Greek negotiation saga finally over? Well maybe. The deal struck however is harsher than the one rejected by the Greeks in their referendum two weeks ago, and it remains to be seen whether Tsipras can sell it back home.

Is this a good deal for the Greeks? Not as far as I can see. As far as I am aware almost all the money will go to paying interest and rolling over existing debt. The Greek economy will continue to be sacrificed on the Euro altar, when the truth is that the best way for Greeks to start on the road back to prosperity is to default on the huge debts that they can never hope to repay, leave the Euro and make a new start outside the Euro straitjacket. In the meantime Greece is like the ancient Greek mythological villain Tantalus (possibly the inspiration for the fictional Dr Hannibal Lecter), who was damned in Tartarus to be in eternally close proximity to food and drink that he could never reach.
On SPX the triangle target was made at the open, and the larger falling wedge that broke up on Friday has now retraced 61.8% of the falling wedge move. The key resistance zone that I was looking at on Friday morning runs from the daily middle band at 2088 to the 50 DMA at 2099, and the HOD at the time of writing is at 2097.87. This could be the high or close to the high of the current move, and when this thrust up ends we should see shortly afterwards a full retrace of this thrust back into the 2075-80 area. SPX 15min chart:
Regardless of whether we see that retrace of the thrust out of the triangle however, this move up may well not be close to finished. Neither the daily RSI5_NYMO sell signal nor the hourly buy signal have yet made target and I'd generally expect these to. If bulls can recapture the 50 DMA then the smaller double bottom target at 2103 and the larger double bottom target at 2123 come into view. SPX daily chart:
I'm expecting a return to retest Friday's close at 2076.62, most likely today or tomorrow. If that move happens before the 60min and daily buy signals make target (at the 70 levels on their respective RSI 14s), then I'd expect another push up afterwards into either the 2103 or 2123 targets.

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