- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Tuesday, 7 July 2015

A Flat Earth Society of Greeks

Well the Greeks called the EU's bluff at the weekend, and after all the tough talk last week it appears that either the EU was bluffing about forcing a grexit, or they're planning to just ignore the vote and try to agree a deal much along the lines of the one that the Greeks just rejected.

There are some great collective nouns out there such as a murder of crows and a pantheon of gods, but as far as I am aware there is as yet no collective noun for a group of EU ministers. This is an obvious gap to be filled and my suggestion for this is a 'shambles of EU ministers'. No doubt this will catch on.

Leaving aside the constant eruptions of wind coming from Europe I've been looking hard at the SPX chart and it seems obvious that a decent rally is coming soon. This would mean that the current H&S that I have marked up on SPX would most likely not be the final topping pattern, and if so, then I have a suggestion that would be a significant technical upgrade.

On the 60min chart I have left the current H&S pattern marked on it and the possible H&S pattern that has formed with a target in the 2114 area on a break over 2085. If we see that break over 2085 before making a new retracement low then I'd be taking that seriously, given that SPX would already have broken over the 50 hour MA in the 2083 area. SPX 60min chart:
That would be one option for a larger H&S here, but the other (and my preferred) option would involve a new retracement low testing and holding the 2039 area. If so that would set up a right shoulder bounce with an ideal high in the 2115-20 area with a possible fail under the 50 DMA in the 2100 area. I like this scenario a lot and if we should see a test of the 2039 area with a decent bounce that should set up a stronger 60min buy signal, a possible daily RSI 5 buy signal and a very nice topping pattern with an obvious target at the 61.8% fib retrace of the rising wedge from the October low. We'll see how that goes. SPX daily chart:
My post is late this morning as I needed to take my older son to the dentist this morning among other things, and SPX has been racing ahead of my writing this. At the current LOD at 2055.19 there are now daily RSI 5 and 15min buy signals brewing and the 60min buy signal is still fixed with divergence getting stronger. This would be an acceptable (though high) low on my second scenario above, though I'd prefer a low much closer to the 2039 area. Either way there is most likely a strong rally coming soon.

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