- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Wednesday, 17 June 2015

The Bottom Line

SPX has held the 2072.14 low and has returned to retest the resistance levels broken late last week and then surrendered on Monday. SPX closed back over the 50 hour MA at 2092.7 yesterday, and just under the 5 DMA at 2098. Above there resistance is at the 50 day EMA at 2100, the 50 day MA at 2104 and the daily middle band at 2107. A close back over the daily middle band opens the door to retest the all time high at 2134. SPX daily chart:
On the 60min chart the 50 hour MA at 2092.7 is now important support and bulls want to break back over falling megaphone resistance in the 2105 area to trigger the megaphone target at a retest of 2134. SPX 60min chart:
The clock is ticking here though. The rising wedge on the 5min chart that I was posting on twitter yesterday afternoon is either:

1. Breaking up towards a target at or above 2115 - bullish
2. Evolving into a rising channel - bullish but less so
3. Breaking down next after a bearish overthrow - bearish

Bulls need to hold that rising wedge support as a break below would deliver a retracement that might well just keep going down and kill off the highs retest scenario. That rising wedge support is now at 2092 and rising at ten handles per day. SPX 5min chart:
I still like the highs retest scenario here. All the Fed needs to do today is make some soothing noises and scatter a bit of dove guano over the market to deliver a last move up into my ideal target and short entry at the important fib level at 2138. The Fed has made doveish statements on occasion in the past and I'm looking for that again today. If the Fed comes across as hawkish instead the retest is most likely not going to happen.

No comments:

Post a comment