- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
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Thursday, 30 April 2015

US Dollar Testing Main Uptrend Support

The markets haven't been behaving quite as I expected the last couple of days, and I'm wondering whether the spring high might already be in. If so we might well find that out today.

Bulls want to get this back over the 50 hour MA into the next move up, either directly from here or ideally from a test of rising channel support, now in the 2088-90 area. If they can't hold that support then the uptrend is called into very serious question. Triangle support is now in the 2060 area but main support is at the double top support low at 2039.69. On a break below the spring high was most likely made at 2125.92. Until we see a break below rising channel support at 2088-90 though, the bulls still have the technical edge here. SPX 60min chart:
USD tested main rising megaphone support yesterday, and broke it slightly overnight. The short term low looks in or very close and I'm expecting a big rally, but the overnight break may have big implications and I'll be looking hard at that today. USD daily chart:
Bulls have to perform today and defend channel support in the 2088-90 area. A break below might mean that the correction expected soon has already started.

Wednesday, 29 April 2015

The Magnificent Seven

The low in October was a very important technical low on all equity indices, and one of my daily optic run folders shows all of the patterns formed on my main group of these since that October low. I know that there are many wondering why I think that a significant high is imminent, and hopefully this will shed some light on this for them. Am I right? Well there's only one way to find out for sure, time will tell as always.

It has been obvious to me for years that there is a lot of crossover between my classical work and Elliot Wave (EW). EW has taken  a reputational beating from the forecasting antics of Prechter's Elliot Wave International over the last decade, but I follow or work with several outstanding EWers who don't work for the EWI clown show, and there's no doubt in my mind that EW is a very powerful, though complex and tricky tool. For the sake of clarity and simplicity I'll explain the chart below from an EW perspective.

From an EW perspective I have the October low as the wave 4 low of the primary three wave up from October 2011, and as with many wave threes it has been a doozy. Wave 5s often form rising wedges, known as ending diagonals in this context, and on the first six of the seven charts below clear rising wedges have formed since the October low.

Three of these rising wedges have seen daily closes under rising wedge support in recent weeks. SPX is one of those and NDX and WLSH are the other two. This puts these three, and most likely all of these indices into topping processes at the moment. SPX daily chart:
Dow has been particularly weak relative to most, and has pinocchioed wedge support four times, closing back above the trendline on each occasion. When we do see a daily close below wedge support that should be a good signal that the topping process is ending or ended. My upside target here is a retest of the 18288 high to make the second high of a double top. INDU daily chart:
The Wilshire 5000 is the broadest US index and again has a very nicely formed rising wedge showing obvious signs of weakness. WLSH daily chart:
Another clear rising wedge showing signs of weakness on NDX, though for clear trendlines I prefer the broad Nasdaq index COMPQ. NDX daily chart:
On COMPQ there is a very clear and currently unbroken rising wedge. COMPQ daily chart:
I was saying yesterday morning that I was looking for a hit of rising wedge support on RUT yesterday and there was a perfect wedge support hit at the low. Assuming that holds I'm now ideally looking for a hit of wedge resistance in the 1290-1300 area. RUT daily chart:
TRAN spends a lot of time in a parallel universe and so spends long periods not correlating much with the other indices. At the moment TRAN made the last all time high in November, against the end of February on Dow. This means that there is a bearish Dow Theory non-confirmation at the moment that will last until TRAN makes a new all time high. That should persist through this spring high and the subsequent correction. In pattern terms TRAN has been forming a descending triangle since December and these, as with rising wedges, break down about 70% of the time. I have TRAN in a short term rising megaphone which I am watching carefully, and I'm thinking TRAN might just manage another touch of triangle resistance in the 9120 area, depending on when that small megaphone breaks down. TRAN daily chart:
I wasn't entirely happy with the low yesterday, as it didn't reach my SPX channel support, though it did retest the daily middle band slightly above, and tested rising wedge support on RUT. I'm giving the low a provisional pass as long as SPX can hold the 50 hour MA, which closed yesterday in the 2108 area, equivalent to 2102 area on ES. With ES at 2096 at the time of writing that's a maybe for today. If SPX opens well under the 50 hour MA then we may well see another decline to finish the job, and my SPX rising channel support is now in the 2086 area (about 2080 ES).

I'll round up with a few other instruments. GC has been very choppy this week, but I am still leaning towards at least a test of the 1142 low as long as the last significant high at 1224.5 isn't broken

ZB has been declining as expected and is getting close to the initial target zone I gave on ZB in the 158 area. I'll be looking again at bonds today for the decline structure, though bonds have been very choppy the last few weeks.

CL is in a big inflection point where it can break up over 58/9 towards my target in the 66-8 area, or break below 53.5 to resume the downtrend. break. I'd like to see the higher target made but technically don't have a strong lean here.

I posted a DX (USD) chart on twitter last night with a strong bullish bias. The falling wedge I showed is breaking down at the moment and I'm expecting this to be a bullish underthrow. I might be mistaken of course.

Tuesday, 28 April 2015

A Brother From Another Mother

SPX reversed hard in the 2124-8 zone I gave yesterday morning, and we are seeing whether it can reach rising channel support, which should be in the 2085-9 area today depending on the time it would be reached. The daily middle band closed at 2092 last night. There is still some unbroken support at the 50 hour MA at 2104.5. SPX daily chart:
Quite a few readers over the last few weeks have struggled a bit with the idea that the SPX rising wedge has broken down, that I am regarding this as a current and important pattern that should deliver a decent decline, but that I have still been forecasting new highs that have been made.

I think a good way to illustrate why this is is to show you the RUT daily chart, with a still unbroken sibling to the rising wedge on SPX. These can often be useful as a kind of distorted reflection to judge where in the topping process a related pattern is, and in this case the RUT wedge is suggesting strongly that SPX is still in the topping process. Targets are also clearer on unbroken wedges and on this RUT pattern I think we might see a move to wedge support in the 1240 area next before a final move to hit wedge resistance in the 1290-1300 area. If seen those hits may give me the approximate start and end of the final move up on SPX as well. I'll be watching this carefully. RUT daily chart:
I'm expecting to see a lower low today than yesterday but the day may well still close green overall. There's the Fed tomorrow of course and I'd expect that to keep the market from dropping too hard. If we do see a decent decline today I'l be looking for a low to buy into the final move up to the SPX spring high.

Monday, 27 April 2015

Pushing Up From The Triangle

SPX made the second day of a daily upper band ride on Friday, and might do a third today. Until demonstrated otherwise though I'm leaning towards seeing a decent retracement in the near future. Short term rising channel support is in the 2124-8 area today, and if we should then see a retracement to channel support, that is currently just under the daily middle band in the 2085-90 area. SPX daily chart:
If we do see some rejection in the 2124-8 area, there is still significant support at the 50 hour MA, which closed Friday at 2103.5. SPX 60min chart:
I think GC is on the way back to retest 1142, and very possibly make a new bear market low after that. I'm looking for a hit of declining resistance in the 1187-9 area this morning and, as long as GC doesn't break over 1190, that should be a very nice short entry range. GC 60min chart:
I like a retrace here, but may not get it. If I don't then I'd note that the weekly upper band is now at 2136 and is the next decent resistance on a break over both the daily upper band and rising channel resistance.

Friday, 24 April 2015

After The Break

Apologies for the late post today. I have had a very intense morning for one reason and another. I'll just do a single chart post today as the setup on SPX here is straightforward.

Obviously the triangle broke up yesterday. SPX made a marginal new all time high and so on. I have a possible channel resistance trendline drawn in on the chart below that hasn't been tested yet and may well hold. I have open 5min and 15min chart sell signals triggered at the highs yesterday and a rising wedge from the 2072 low. If we see weakness today there is obvious support at wedge support and broken triangle resistance in the 2110 area. On a break below there I would have main rising support in the 2080-5 area, but I'd be surprised to see a move there before a hit of rising channel resistance in the 2123-5 area. After that hit I'd be looking for a likely retracement to channel support before the next, and very possibly last, move up. SPX 15min chart:
I don't believe that the SPX spring high is made but I would note that in the case of a hard fail here there is now a perfect double top setup on SPX. On a break back below rising support in the 2080-5 area the high could be in. Until then I'm looking higher into either the 2140-50 or 2170 areas to make that spring high.

Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Thursday, 23 April 2015

The (Seemingly) Eternal Triangle

We've now seen an epic six tests of triangle resistance on SPX. I'm expecting it to break up but starting to wonder if I'll live long enough to see that happen (j/k). Expecting to see another run at that today and hopefully this time it will break up. SPX 60min chart:
Triangles do eventually have to break of course, and the TLT triangle broke down yesterday. That move also broke the double top and I'm expecting to reach pattern targets in the 125-6 area. I would then expect to see a lower low under 122.71 on the way to targets much lower. TLT 60min chart:
I'm leaning towards a bull break over triangle resistance today. If we see a hard reversal down instead I'd note that a break below yesterday's low at 2091.05 would trigger a double top target in the 2072 area at a retest of Monday's low at 2072.37. A break below that would invite a test of triangle support in the 2055 area. I'd be surprised to see that but it's worth bearing in mind.

Wednesday, 22 April 2015

Too Many Triangles Lately

Very late post today as I was out much of the morning and I've had a busy open.

SPX failed just under triangle resistance yesterday and I have open 5min & 15min sell signals here. I'm looking for SPX to most likely test the globex low in the 2083-7 area before another test of triangle resistance. If Monday's low at 2072.37 is broken, that would open up a test of triangle support in the 2055 area. SPX 15min chart:
After yet another time-consuming triangle TLT has finally broken down this morning. If that break holds then the target back in the 125/6 area should just be the start of a big move down that I'm expecting to reverse the whole of the move up on bonds since the end of 2013. TLT 60min chart:
ES has traded as low as 2091.05 and as high as 2103.82 since the open. My open sell signals are suggesting strongly that there is still more downside to come so I'm working on the assumption that we will see a lower low under 2091 before the next test of triangle resistance.

Tuesday, 21 April 2015

Testing Triangle Resistance - Take #5

After the strong day yesterday SPX is close to a test of triangle resistance in the 2110 area. If the triangle breaks up, as I'm expecting though not necessarily today, then bulls also need to take SPX over the last high at 2111.91, and then the current all time high at 2119.59. The 50 hour MA, which closed yesterday at 2098, is key support and any significant or sustained break below it would be a warning signal that the bulls might be unravelling for today. SPX 60min chart:
I've had a few questions about why I'm expecting to see a test of the 2170 area here, and there are a number of reasons but a key one is this. I'm expecting a retracement this summer that will either test the monthly lower band or at the least trade well under the monthly middle band, currently at 1934.

Historically such a move on SPX either comes directly from a hit or near miss of the monthly upper band (majority of cases) or a hit in the previous few months without a strong further move up. . An exception was the 1937 top where the upper band had not been tested at 11 months and well below, but that was a major top before what was, in effect, a crash. The monthly upper band on SPX was last tested 17 months ago in the 1850 area, and unless we are to see something historically unprecedented on SPX this year, the upper band should be tested before this decline begins. The monthly upper band is currently at 2171. SPX monthly chart:
I'm leaning bullish today, though we may see a retracement from the first test of triangle resistance. If there is a hard break below the hourly 50 MA today then we could be seeing a serious reversal back down towards triangle support.

Monday, 20 April 2015

Two Triangles and A Megaphone

SPX fell hard on Friday, made the smaller double top target and broke down from the larger double top. Shortly after the LOD SPX broke up from a falling wedge that I called on twitter, and closed the day at a retest of broken larger double bottom support. The retracement low may be in, and if we are to see a fail without another test of triangle resistance in the 2011 area then I'll be looking for resistance at the 50% and 61.8% retracements on the falling wedge, in the 2092 and 2096.5 areas respectively. The 50 hour MA closed Friday at 2096 and is key resistance today. SPX 15min chart:
Instead of failing at the obvious double-top setup TLT has formed a triangle and tested triangle resistance late on Friday afternoon. In context, as with the SPX triangle, this is very arguably a bull flag and has at minimum a bullish lean. A break up should deliver a retest of the all time high at 137.66, a break down should take out the March low at 122.71. As ever with triangles there may be multiple false breaks before the triangle makes the genuine break higher or lower. TLT 60min chart:
DX is forming a falling megaphone from the last high. An IHS has formed and broken up and if falling megaphone resistance breaks then I'll be looking for a last run up that may well make the double bottom target at 105, before a big retracement starts that should take DX back into the 90 area. DX 60min chart:
ES opened strong and is already testing obvious resistance at the 50 hour MA and the 61.8% fib retracement of the falling wedge. If we see a break over triangle resistance at 2011 then I'll be looking for a test of the all time high at 2119.59.

Friday, 17 April 2015

The Long and Winding Triangle

SPX set up a small double top yesterday and has fallen hard overnight. It seems obvious that we are now in the final wave E of this triangle, and there is a clear path back to triangle support in the 2050-55 area if bears can manage it. Support and trigger levels are clear so let's see what happens today.

The first level of support is yesterday's low at 2100, and the break of that at the open targets 2088. That opens up a test of Tuesday's low at 2083.24, and that is the key level today as it is double top support, targeting 2054.57 on a break below it, and the 50 DMA and daily middle band are also both at 2084. This is a very strong support level and it may hold. SPX 15min chart:
On a sustained break below 2083/4 the double top target is at 2054.57, triangle support is currently in the 2053 area, and the daily lower band is at 2051. Again a clear target at again very strong support. SPX daily chart:
The setup here couldn't really be much clearer. Let's see how it goes. There is a very real possibility that SPX will trend down today and the top priority for anyone trading this today should be to avoid becoming counter-trend roadkill. Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Thursday, 16 April 2015

Testing Triangle Resistance

SPX tested triangle resistance yesterday and didn't break through it. There is a possible setup here for a reversal back into triangle support in the 2055 area and that's shown on the chart below that I posted on twitter last night. We'll see how today goes, but if triangle resistance holds again today then we will most likely see at least a test of Tuesday's low at 2083.24. SPX 15min chart:
My double bottom setup on oil broke up yesterday. I like this setup a lot and a short squeeze could deliver this quickly, but equally it's very important to remember that when these setups fail, that tends to happen at or just over double bottom resistance. A break back below 53 now would be a warning flag, and a break back under 50 would most likely resume the primary downtrend. Any longs on oil here are counter-trend on the bigger picture. WTIC daily chart:
Triangle resistance was hit yesterday, and what a long and winding road it has been to get there since I called that target at the end of March. Now that it has been reached SPX is at a major inflection point & we'll see what happens here. Regardless of the short term I'm leaning bullish overall  into at least a full retest of the all time highs unless the 2039.69 low is broken. If that happens then the spring high was most likely made at 2119 & I'll be looking back to the 1800s or lower for the summer retracement.

Wednesday, 15 April 2015

Uptrend Support Tested and Held

SPX found support just at the 50 hour MA yesterday and bounced from there into the close, though not with great conviction. I posted the chart below on twitter last night noting the rising channel that had been established, and that as long as that channel held this morning then the next obvious target is now a retest of the all time high at 2119.59.  SPX 15min chart:
There was another key uptrend support level yesterday at the 5DMA. That held on SPX as well, opening and closing above the MA with a pinocchio down to test the 50 hour MA intraday. SPX 5DMA chart:
The very nice double top setup here on TLT here is starting to look doubtful. I'm wondering about a triangle here, and if that triangle was to break up I'd be thinking that a retest of the February high at 137.66 might well then be on the cards. I'm watching this carefully. TLT 15min chart:
SPX is going to gap up at the open and as long as my rising channel on the top chart holds I'll be looking for a test of triangle resistance at 2111/2, and then a retest of the all time high at 2119. That would be a possible high area, though I'm still thinking a break up over it is more likely.

Tuesday, 14 April 2015

Big Moves Coming Our Way

I was talking yesterday morning about the negative divergence on the SPX 15min RSI and that has delivered a retracement.  If rising wedge support breaks this morning then I have strong support at the 38.2% fib in the 2085 area, as that is very close to the 50 hour MA. I have alternate fib retracement targets in the 2078 and 2071 areas. SPX 15min chart:
This retracement should be the final E wave within the triangle. If so then there are three main options here. My preferred option is that the triangle breaks up with a target in the 2185 area and very strong resistance there. I'd be looking for a hard fail there if seen to make the spring high and kick off a likely 15% to 25% retracement from there. The second option is that the triangle breaks up to fail hard in the 2119 high area. The third option is that this retracement reverses all of this last move up. For  the last two options I'd then be expecting a break down through the 2039 low, triggering a double top target in the 1950-60 area. SPX 60min chart:
I'm watching oil with very great interest here. WTIC broke up from the wave 3 falling megaphone last month and has formed a very nice double bottom targeting the 66 area on a strong break over 54.24. As I have the 38.25 fib retrace at 67.29 and falling channel resistance in the 69 area I'm thinking that we may well see that double bottom play out in the next couple of weeks. WTIC daily chart:
SPX is at a major inflection point here, and whichever way it breaks we should see a big move very soon. I'm leaning towards the (short term) bull scenario but if we see a break below 2039 it has gone the other way and 2119 was the spring high. Either way I am expecting a very strong retracement this summer.

Monday, 13 April 2015

Approaching Triangle Resistance

Another strong day on SPX on Friday, and the very obvious target at triangle resistance and the daily upper band in the 2112 area is getting close. SPX daily chart:
Looking at my multi-index charts there is an argument for seeing a retracement before the 2112 target is hit, but it may be that negative RSI divergence on the 15min chart will just build into the 2112 target. Scan 3x SPX INDU TRAN chart:
When 2112 is hit there are three options. My preferred option is a sharp retrace back into the 2070-85 area, before the triangle breaks up towards new highs. The other two options are either that the triangle breaks up towards new highs immediately or heads back to triangle support in the 2055 area. Key support is at the 50 hour MA at 2080 and it's important to remember that a small break above triangle resistance is not strong evidence that a triangle is breaking up, as false breaks are normal on triangles.

Friday, 10 April 2015

Whippy but Bullish

The action has been very whippy this week but the bottom line is that SPX broke back over strong resistance at the 5 DMA, 50 DMA, 50 HMA and the daily middle band, and has very thoroughly and successfully retested those broken resistance levels as support. While that remains the case the obvious targets above are my triangle resistance, still in the 2112 area, and the daily upper band, currently at 2109.54. SPX 60min chart:
I've been asked a few times whether I am ignoring the fact that the rising wedge from the October low has broken down. I'm not, but there is a sequence to these things. First the pattern breaks, then a topping pattern forms that will often deliver a higher high as it forms, and then the retracement plays out.

In my view that topping pattern is probably still forming and the triangle is telling us to expect a last thrust up, possibly as high as the (triangle target in) the 2170 area, to make the spring high and then start the very significant retracement that should be starting soon. Anyone not happy to go 80 handles underwater on this trade should be careful shorting until the situation clarifies. Could I be mistaken? For sure. Is there a good chance that I am right? Yes. I'm watching this triangle develop with very great interest.

Wednesday, 8 April 2015

Retesting Broken Resistance as Support

I was talking yesterday morning about the likelihood that SPX would retest broken resistance as support and it took a while, but that was tested at the close yesterday. We could see SPX go a bit lower this morning but what we saw yesterday may well be all. My bull/bear line is at 2068/9 this morning, with the SPX daily middle band now at 2073.5, the 50 hour MA now at 2072.5, and the 5 DMA at 2070. SPX 5DMA chart:
As long as support holds today I'm looking for a test of triangle resistance in the 2112 area. If SPX trades under 2068 then most likely it is breaking back down again, and I'd be looking for possible support at triangle support in the 2050 area, and if that was broken I'd be looking for a break below 2039.69 shortly afterwards. SPX 60min chart:
TLT is at an inflection point here with two pattern options. My preferred option is a double top targeting 125.34 on a break under 128.91. If TLT can break back below possible triangle support in the 130 area I'd be assuming that short was solid.

The other option becomes much more likely if TLT can recover over 131.5. That option is an ascending triangle which would confirm on another test of 132.48. We might not see a break up then, but these do break up 70% of the time and the target on a break up would be in the 136 area, getting close to a retest of the TLT all time high at 137.66. This option should be making the second high of a much larger double top and while this is not my preferred option, it's worth bearing in mind until we see TLT break below 130 with some conviction. TLT 5min chart:
I'm assuming support will hold here on SPX until demonstrated otherwise.

My vacation internet access is terrible so the next post may be on Friday morning. I will try to get a post out tomorrow morning.

Tuesday, 7 April 2015

Deja Vu

ES had a very strong day yesterday and broke back over resistance at the weekly middle band (now at 2063), the 50 hour MA (now at 2069), the 5 DMA (now at 2072), and the daily middle band (now at 2073.5). The stats are bearish for today and we may well see a retest to establish whether the resistance broken yesterday will now act as support. If so then I would be very edgy about any significant break under the 50 hour MA at 2069 and on any break under 2067 I'd be expecting a full reversal candle breaking back below the daily middle band today.

I've written a few times in recent weeks about the unusual 5 DMA setup here. I've looked back as far as the start of 2007 without finding a single example of a decent break over the 5 DMA, that was reversed within two days, that did not then deliver a lower low before higher highs. As SPX stands here we have had two such breaks in the last four weeks and since then SPX has neither made a low under 2039, nor a higher high over 2119. SPX daily 5DMA chart:
Either we break down to take the 2039 low out in the very near future or the triangle I have been looking at is forming, and we will most likely find out which at the retest of the daily middle band today. If the middle band holds, then I have triangle resistance in the 2112 area, and if the middle band folds then I'd be looking for a break back below 2039 in the near future, most likely this week.
SPX 60min chart:
The support zone this morning is in the 2067-73 range, and bulls need to hold it to go higher. Any break back below it, even intraday, is most likely a bearish break that will follow through. Overhead resistance, which I'm not expecting to see tested today but might be in any case, is at 2088.97 and if bulls can break over that level they will have made a significant looking higher high.

Monday, 6 April 2015

What NFP Numbers?

An amazing drive up from the open today that has far move than wiped out any globex losses after the horrible NFP number on Friday. Tim Knight of www.slopeofhope.com tweeted out the following image that pretty much sums up the morning so far:
The close on Thursday held the weekly middle band for the fourth straight week. That is still strong support this week and is currently in the 2064 area. SPX weekly chart:
Since I capped the daily chart below the push up from the open has now broken back up over the daily middle band at 2073.l. If that break holds into the close the the bulls are taking back control of the tape here. SPX daily chart:
One thing I always say in an uptrend or a downtrend is that as a strong uptrend should hold the 50 hour MA until it is topping out and a strong downtrend should hold it as resistance until it is bottoming out. The 50 hour MA was at 2068 at the test this morning, and SPX has now broken over 10 handles above that. At the very least this is not a strong downtrend. SPX 60min chart:
SPX is back over the daily middle band and we may be looking at a trend up day here. I would suggest not fighting it and seeing whether SPX can hold this conviction break over the daily middle band at the close. If it can, and this break is not then reversed with a strong punch back below it tomorrow, then I'll be looking for my triangle resistance target in the 2112 area.

I'm going to be in and out this week as I'm taking some time off. I'll try and get a short post up every day and normal service will be resuming on Friday.

Thursday, 2 April 2015

Still In The Balance

SPX broke back below the 5 DMA yesterday and that break triggers the second setup in the last two weeks that requires a lower low before a higher high. I've looked back as far as 2007 without finding an exception to this rule. If SPX is in a triangle here, and the possible triangle is still holding, then that may deliver an exception to this rule. SPX daily 5 DMA:
In terms of the pattern setup the triangle is still intact and SPX is also in a falling channel from the 2114 high. If bears can break triangle support at 2048/9 then falling channel support is currently in the 2025 area. If bulls can break channel resistance, currently in the 2075 area, then triangle resistance is in the 2112 area. SPX 60min chart:
There is a very nice looking reversal setup on TLT here for a reversal back down into what might well be a huge move down. I'm watching for a gap under 131.88 this morning to set the ball rolling. If not then I have two other inflection areas shown on the chart below. TLT is very likely to fail hard at one of these three. TLT 60min chart:
The historical stats for today are strongly bullish, as they were yesterday and as they will also be on Tuesday. I'm reading a lot that the selling season has started at the start of April but that really doesn't get going traditionally until the start of May, and I'd note that since 1950 April has been the strongest month of the year on the Dow.

Everyone have a great Easter Holiday! :-)

Wednesday, 1 April 2015

A Fork In The Road

The bulls had a very bad day yesterday and almost managed an even worse night. The reversal candle back through the daily middle band was conceded at the close and overnight ES ran all the way to 2033.50, then recovered back to 2060.75, and is close to that at the time of writing.

Are the bulls dead in the water here? No. Last time I saw an overnight move like this was in early August last year at the 1906 low, and as I recall Mike Vacchi took a long overnight at about 1882. That low was not tested again until October. It is a myth that overnight highs/lows have to be retested shortly after

What the bulls need here is to respect the bull/bear line at the 2061.02 gap fill that I gave yesterday morning. As long as that holds my primary scenario is the triangle scenario I gave yesterday morning. if that gap is filled then I'll move the bear scenario here up to being my primary scenario, though technically the triangle would still be intact until we see a break below triangle support in the 2048 area. The bear scenario is looking for a break below the 2039 low to open up double top targets at 1980 and 1960.

I've laid out the options and support levels here on my daily 5DMA chart below. SPX daily 5 DMA chart:
SPX also has decent support at the weekly middle band at 2063.32, though that support is strongest at the weekly close tomorrow night. SPX weekly chart:
As I write that SPX gap at 2061 has just filled so I am leaning bearish. On a break below 2039 we may well see a strong follow through to test the last big low at 1980.90. Main channel support is in the 1940 area. it's a wild looking market so trade safe.