- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Monday, 16 March 2015

Uncertain Low

I was saying on Friday morning that in all of the three instances since the start of 2014 when SPX broke back below the 5 DMA within two days, then a new low has been made before new highs were made. I had a look further back and that was also true in 2012 and 2013, though in both instances there was one instance that went one to make short term higher highs before those new lows were made.

That's a concern for bulls here as SPX tested the lows on Friday but did not make a lower low. This low is therefore uncertain and the rally from it may fail, most likely at the open today, the test of the Thursday high, or a test of the daily middle band.

On the SPX 60min chart the rising wedge support trendline from the October low held again, although it's starting to look somewhat frayed. On a break over Thursday's high at 2066.41 the double bottom target would be in the 2093/4 area. It's worth noting that double bottom resistance at 2066.41 is a match with the 50 hour MA at 2067 and the double bottom target is a match with the daily middle band at 2092.  SPX 60min chart:
Friday was day three of a daily lower band ride. To make today the fourth day SPX would need to reach the 2036-9 area at some point to test the daily lower band. SPX daily chart:
The setup is pretty straightforward today. Bulls want to beat Thursday's high to open up a test of the daily middle band. Bears want to take this back down to the lows to test the daily lower band and try to break rising wedge support for the third time. The failure to make a lower low on Friday favors new retracement lows being made before a serious attempt at a test of the all time highs is made.

No comments:

Post a comment