- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Tuesday, 13 January 2015

Mixed Signals and Oil Break

The bulls had a very bad day yesterday, and on the daily chart there was a conviction break below the 50 DMA and the middle band, as well as breaks of lesser support at the 100 DMA and already broken rising wedge support. Generally speaking after a break of this kind I'd be looking for a touch of the daily lower band before another break back over the middle band, and if we are to see that then that is currently at 1975, just above the December low (and double top support) at 1972. SPX daily chart:
Also lost was support at the 50 hour MA. That's now at 2036 and I'll be looking for some resistance there this morning. There may be a falling channel now from the all time high and I'll be keeping an eye on that. SPX 60min chart:
On the 15min chart, by contrast, I'm showing the also not unimpressive short term bull case here. The pattern from the last high is a nice looking falling megaphone, and a short term double bottom has formed that would target the 2049 area on a break over 2036. I have declining resistance from the all time highs now in the 2050-5 area and if that were to break up I'd be looking for a retest of the highs. SPX 15min chart:
Oil finally hit my main support trendline from the 1998 low yesterday, and broke it with some conviction. We may well see a bounce into the 46s today after yesterdays's epic 7% decline on CL, but I'd be looking lower after that. WTIC weekly chart:
The signals on SPX here should clarify in the first hour today. If we see SPX break back over 2040 then I'd be looking for 2050 and a possible retest of the highs. A hard fail in the 2035-40 area should deliver a move to 2000 and possibly considerably lower.

No comments:

Post a comment