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Friday, 31 October 2014

BOJ Bombshell

Well we looked very close to a high at the close yesterday but with the gap over strong resistance likely at the open we could see an extension further upwards. On a sustained break over the rising wedge resistance trendline on Dow then we are forming a new pattern that is not yet clear. The same applies on SPX. Dow 60min chart:
So where is resistance? There is resistance at the current all time high at 2020, and the daily upper band which may well be hit in the same area near the open. That could be a wave high, but more likely we would see a retrace shortly and at least a test of the highs. SPX daily chart:
The move up has been far faster and harder than I expected, and I'm struggling to find a comparable past example. What I would say though is that there is very hard trendline resistance in the 2040-60 area and it is the kind of long term resistance that rarely breaks. If we see a move to that area then this would generally be a termination move before a much larger retracement than the correction to 1820. SPX weekly chart:
I'd suggest not blind shorting this move. I'm expecting a retracement back into the 1990s or high 1980s today and that retrace will most likely be setting up a dip to buy for at minimum a retest of the all time highs. 

Thursday, 30 October 2014

The Flagging Dow Industrials

Only three charts today as I've had a lot on this morning.

One reason I do my optic run views on my seven main US equity indices is because while SPX is often the technical leader, by which I mean not that it moves fastest, but that it is delivering the cleanest trendlines/patterns and fibonacci retracements, that is not always the case. That leader at the moment is the Dow Industrials, and my first two charts will illustrate why that is.

The rising wedge on SPX that I tweeted on Tuesday night hit the very well defined wedge resistance (tweeted at the high yesterday) and then broke down on the frankly very predictable not really news that QE3 had ended in October as planned, and the usual assurances that the Fed would be fighting hard to keep interest rates near zero until the stars fall from the sky. Now those of you who have been looking at my work closely for a while might have wondered why I was giving strong weight to a pattern on SPX that was mediocre due to the poorly defined support trendline, and the answer to that question is of course that .......... SPX 15min chart:
....... it was supported by a far better and directly equivalent pattern on the current technical leader index, which is the Dow. The pattern on Dow is very well formed, overthrew slightly at the high yesterday, and then broke down and retested broken wedge support at the close. At least the main part of this move up from the 1820 SPX low is over, and that overall move may well have topped out, though if so then we may well retrace, retest highs, then retrace more as part of the usual formation of a decent sized H&S or double top.  Dow 15min chart:
Are there any other implication from Dow being the technical leader here? Yes. I posted an SPX daily chart the other day considering the possibility that the double top that broke down and failed to make the 1789 SPX target was actually a bull flag forming. I see these initially misleading setups a lot on the intraday charts, though they are rarer on the daily and higher timeframes. SPX overshot the ideal theoretical bear flag channel target but here's how that looks on Dow as at yesterday's high. Obviously this setup is leaving the possibility open that the October low might be taken out if a retrace here should run away, though it wouldn't be likely to be broken by much of course. Dow daily chart from 1110:
On a break under 1969 SPX today I'd be looking for a target in the 1946.50 area. If seen we might see a strong reversal there to retest yesterday's high as a larger reversal pattern forms at these highs.

Wednesday, 29 October 2014

USD Dollar and FOMC Today

SPX broke strong resistance levels at the 50 DMA and the 1976-8 levels yesterday to close at a very impressive 1985. That break up over the 50 DMA opens up the daily upper band as a target and that closed yesterday at 2003. With FOMC today it seems unlikely that Yellen can say a great deal to cheer the markets, QE3 has ended and is unlikely to be even temporarily revived, and the Fed has made so many soothing noises about future interest rate rises already that it's hard to see what they could add to that. Nonetheless some more soothing noises today might just get SPX to that target at the upper band. SPX daily chart:
The structure of this move up has been unclear since 1950, when the initial rising wedge from the low broke down but failed to deliver more than a small reversal. SPX finally established a new support trendline yesterday morning and so I now have a larger rising wedge from the low. We could see an overthrow as high as the daily upper band today if Yellen manages to come up with something to say to give SPX a boost. SPX 60min chart:
I saw a even longer term USD chart today than the chart from 1980 that I have posted many times. I saw on that chart that the overall setup here is a falling wedge, with the wedge support trendline coming from a low in 1977/8. This makes the overall setup here on USD even more bullish long term. USD monthly chart:
What are we likely to see on USD in the short term? I'm expecting USD to retest the recent high and possibly make a marginal new high, but if there is any more than that then I have two decent trendline targets to shoot for here. The first is possible rising wedge resistance in the 87.6 area, and the second is rising channel resistance in the 88.6 area. Either would break falling wedge resistance from the 1985 high and be bullish longer term, but when a high is found then I'd be looking for a decent retracement that may well reverse back down into the low 80s. USD daily chart:
Silver looks close to a low. It could still go as low as 12 but I have an alternate trendline with decent support in the 15 to 15.5 area. I'm watching this closely as we may well see a very big bull move again on silver when a low is finally in. Silver weekly chart:
This move up from the 1820 low has been incredibly powerful, and may not be ending yet, though there is a decent chance that it might top out at or after FOMC today. The main remaining bear option here is one that I mentioned in the first couple of days of this move, and that is that SPX is making the second high of a much larger double top as a precursor to a much larger move down. We are now in the usual range for that second high to be made.

How seriously should this possibility be considered? Well seasonality is against the bears here as October ends, and in any case it would be hard to take that seriously until after we saw SPX break back down under the 200 DMA (currently 1910) with confidence, but the other thing to say is that the usual range for that second high of a double top to be made stretches from 1960 to 2080, so even if a larger double-top is forming here, that isn't necessarily of immediate interest.

For now I'm watching that rising wedge on SPX and expecting a short term high to be made soon, very possibly today. After that I'd be looking for a 38.2% to 50% retracement of this move up from 1820, and would be looking for the 200 DMA (currently at 1910) to now be strong support.

Tuesday, 28 October 2014

1976 and Bust?

I was talking yesterday about the 1976 SPX target and the trendline resistance that may well be there. SPX is likely to gap up today and we will see whether that target is hit today and if so, whether the trendline holds. SPX daily chart:
Supporting that 1976 SPX target is a triangle that formed on the SPX 1min chart yesterday. It made a false break down, as triangles often do, and is now resolving up towards the target, which is also at 1976. SPX 1min chart:
What will happen at that 1976 SPX test? Hard to say but a look at foreign indices suggests strongly that there may be another strong wave down starting shortly. Whether that would have the strength to carry SPX past the 1820 low from here is debatable of course. DAX weekly chart:
I haven't posted a USD chart in a few days. The obvious next target is still a retest of the current high before a larger pullback. USD daily chart:
The 1976 SPX should be tested today. If we are to see a test or more of the 1820 low I would expect a strong reversal very near there at the trendline I have drawn on the daily chart. If we are to just see a retrace of the current move then SPX may run up another few points but that retracement is likely to start soon. Any significant downside on the 60min charts would now be likely to trigger 60min sell signals across the board.

Monday, 27 October 2014

Flags and Double Reversals

SPX closed the week on the weekly middle band at 1964. This is a very significant resistance level and the key thing that bulls would like to do this week is to break back above it. Only the weekly close matters for this so we could see SPX trading above it intra-week without that being a bullish break. SPX weekly chart:
I've been giving some thought to the circumstances in which we could see the IHS target in the 1976 area made this week, and it would be very close indeed to possible falling channel resistance from the high. On the bigger picture this would be a bull flag channel of course, SPX daily chart:
The pattern setup from the 1820 low continues to favor short term reversal here. There is strong support and an obvious target if that gets going in the 1926-31 area. SPX 15min chart:
Looking at intraday patterns I often remark that a double top after a strong trend that fails to break down is generally a bull flag, and that happens a lot. You see it on the larger timeframes too and there's a very nice example on the AAPL daily chart where that bull flag broke up last week. When this happens there are two main options, the first being that the second high of a larger double top is being made. That's probably the more likely option here given that AAPL is close to resistance on a larger and very nice looking rising megaphone. The second is that the flag is a mid-point consolidation in a larger move up. If the megaphone breaks up that would give a target in the 125 area. AAPL daily chart:
I find that USO makes a reasonable oil proxy and the 60min chart here shows the trendline setup on oil here. There is very well defined and and strong declining resistance above, and at some point USO will rally to at least test that. I have cautiously drawn in a possible falling megaphone and if that's right, USO may be basing for that rally now. For now however I am not confident in that lower trendline and the consolidation is looking rather like a bear pennant for continuation downwards. Oil is still a brave and possibly doomed long at this level. USO 60min  chart:
I am expecting to see a strong retracement on SPX soon, and that should start this week. It may be that won't start until after the Fed on Wednesday, but as I strongly suspect they won't have much 'good' news to report in terms of QE, the Fed may well trigger that retracement. I am expecting SPX to close flat or negative this week overall.

Friday, 24 October 2014

The Air Is Getting Thin

SPX broke above the daily middle band yesterday and tested the 100 DMA. More importantly though, the high yesterday was within a couple of points of testing the weekly middle band. Given that today is Friday that may well be formidable resistance today, and while I'd quite like to see a test of yesterday's high today, I'm very doubtful about seeing a move significantly higher. This is closing resistance, so only the closing price today is important for that. We could see a move somewhat higher intraday. SPX weekly chart:
So what about all the patterns that broke down on Wednesday? They are all still in play here, and I'm showing the patterns from the lows for SPX, Dow, TRAN, RUT and NDX below to show where they all stand as at the close yesterday.

SPX formed a rising wedge that broke down on Wednesday and brutally retested broken rising wedge support yesterday. There is a decent looking double top setup here, and if we can see enough confirming weakness today the strong negative divergence on all the 60min RSIs on these five indices may trigger strong sell signals. This is not a chart I would see as in any way an attractive long here. SPX 15min chart:
The setup on Dow is very similar to the setup on SPX. INDU 15min chart:
The setup on RUT is very similar to the setups on SPX and Dow, though weaker, as RUT is still lagging the other indices badly. RUT 15min chart:
TRAN formed a very decent rising channel from the low that broke down on Wednesday and retested yesterday. Again there is a nice looking double top in play here. TRAN 60min chart:
NDX is the strongest of these indices and only pinocchioed the rising channel there on Wednesday. For now I'm treating this pattern as intact and there isn't an obvious reversal pattern formed yet, though there may be an early stage H&S forming. NDX 15min chart:
I was asked about oil yesterday and I'm going to post a few charts over the next few days showing where I think we might be on oil. What I would lead with though is the reason that I am unenthusiastic about arriving early to the oil long recovery party.

I posted this WTIC (oil futures in trading hours) chart in July last year, and have posted it a few times since then. What this showed was a triangle on oil that then broke up, which is when I added the note that triangles often break one way before resolving the other way, and then broke down hard. The triangle target would be the 50 area, just above the long term support trendline from the 1999 low.

Am I treating 50 as a serious target on oil? No ..... not yet, but it's in the mix here, and I'm not wild about oil as a recovery play here until I see some solid evidence that it is really ready to turn back up. That would normally take the form of a strong positive divergence on the daily chart, and I don't see that yet. I'll be posting more on the short term oil setup next week. WTIC weekly chart:
So what's the likely story on equities today? Well I'm not too concerned about Ebola, but then I don't really do news. I'm aware of the IHS targets overhead (SPX at 1976) that have not yet been hit, but I don't think we're likely to see those hit today, and it's possible that they won't be hit at all, as these were all secondary reversal patterns, and the first series of reversal patterns that I called on all these indices have all already been hit.

The pattern setups on these equity indices from the lows look bearish across the board, with the arguable exception of NDX, and it wouldn't take much weakness today to move the negative divergence on their 60min RSI 14s from being a concern to being outright sell signals. We'll see how it goes today, but after this amazing run up from the lows, regardless of whether we are in an overall bull or bear trend, the short side is now looking a lot more interesting than the long side for at least a retracement soon.

Thursday, 23 October 2014

Another Educated WAG

At the point where SPX broke hard through the 50% fib retrace the overall trend shifted from bear to unknown in my mind, and it's still in unknown territory now. I'm not assuming that this will resolve in either direction until I see some stronger evidence, but I'll be calling the shorter term likely moves, which at the moment look a decent fit with either bull or bear overall trend.

Looking at the pattern setup at the close yesterday, and the recovery overnight, I have a new educated guess for the direction on SPX over the next few days. I'll lay that down here and we'll see how that goes.

  1. We see a retest of yesterday's high or a marginal new high today to make the second high of a short term double top
  2. SPX then (38.2% fib) retraces to retest the 1900 area and the 200 DMA just above at 1907
  3. SPX then moves up further to retest the 50 DMA in the 1967 area and possibly make an IHS target at 1976
  4. At the test of the 50 DMA we see whether SPX fails hard there into at least a retest of the recent lows, or breaks higher into new all time highs

SPX daily chart:
Every one of my seven US optic run indices broke rising support from the lows yesterday. I'm looking for reversal patterns to form and then fib retracements of this move up from the lows across the board. The stall at this area on SPX is close to the 61.8% fib retrace target. SPX 60min chart:
The pattern on SPX was unclear yesterday morning but resolved into a very decent rising wedge that has broken down. A small H&S broke down with a target in the 1910 area in the afternoon, but I think SPX is likely to retest the highs this morning to develop a better quality double top that will almost exactly target the 38.2% fib retracement at 1900. SPX 15min chart:
NDX was the last to break down yesterday and may or not manage to fill Tuesday morning's gap close to the 38.2% fib retrace target. NDX 15min chart:
I posted this EURUSD chart early last week looking for a retrace to retest the 1.25 low, and that's going well. I'm expecting EURUSD to make the second low of a double bottom there before a larger rally begins. EURUSD daily chart:
There's been a lot of talk this morning about the strong futures overnight meaning that another leg up is starting. The pattern setup here says that's unlikely (though as always still possible), and a retest of the highs on this pattern setup is generally an excellent short entry level. Once we see that or a marginal new high in trading hours, I'll be looking for a retest of the 1900 area.

Wednesday, 22 October 2014

Advantage Bulls

Yesterday went pretty much as I expected, except for the direction of course, which was up rather than down. There were an impressive list of bullish breaks over the course of the day, starting with the gap back over the 200 DMA, then a break over the 50% fib retracement level at 1920, the daily middle band (closed at 1933), and the day closed at the test of the 61.8% fib retracement level at 1943.

There is one more big resistance level above, and that is the very important 50 DMA at 1967, but in practical terms any sustained break over the 61.8% fib retracement level at 1943 will greatly increase the chances that the retracement low was made at 1820, and on a sustained break over the 50 DMA, there would be a clear target back at a test of the 2020 highs. SPX daily chart:
Also worth noting is that declining resistance from the highs on SPX was also broken yesterday. That's not unusual in a B wave, but adds another significant card to the hand the bulls are holding after yesterday. My personal feeling here, backed up by the obvious (not marked up on the chart below) IHS that formed at the 1896 neckline, is that this move is targeting a test of the 50 DMA area around 1967, and that we will be seeing that test soon. SPX 60min chart:
Short term however, I am watching the patterns that have formed on some major indices since the low. If we are to see any significant retracement before a test of the 50 DMA on SPX, then the first sign will be a break of the support trendlines on these patterns. Until we see those breaks there is nothing much interesting on the bear side here in the short term. I'll be watching these and calling support breaks on twitter, though I'll mention now that the first thing I look for on such a break is a possible retest of the high made before that break.

There is a very high quality rising channel here on NDX. NDX 15min chart:
Dow is either forming a rising wedge or megaphone. I'm leaning towards a wedge but we should find out this morning. INDU 15min chart:
There is another very high quality rising channel here on TRAN. TRAN 15min chart:
In summary a test of the SPX 50 DMA in the 1967 area is looking likely in the next week or so, and that could happen as soon as today. At that point any question as to whether we are still in an overall downtrend should be answered. We may well see a sharp retracement on the way to that target, and the first sign that such a retracement might happen would be rising support breaks on the patterns I have posted above. There is a lot of negative divergence on the 15 minute RSI 14s at the close yesterday and we may well see those retracements start today. The stats lean towards consolidation or retracement today as yesterday was a trend day.

Tuesday, 21 October 2014

1920 SPX Rally Target In Sight

Last Wednesday night, after some seriously wild action had settled down a bit after hours, I made some educated guesses in my trading room about what ES/SPX might do over the next few days. Some of these I also talked about on twitter then and the next morning, and reviewed the status of all of these on Friday morning. They were as follows from ES 1842-3 at the time:
  1. ES was making the second low of a double bottom targeting the 1855 area (topped at 1857)
  2. That move should make the second high of a double top (target 1821 area) (bottomed 1815)
  3. An (Thursday) AM low would be made on SPX in the 1830-40 ES area (low was 1828)
  4. SPX would then break up from an IHS with a target in the 1920 area (to be hit today?)
  5. That 1920 area would be reached on Thurs/Fri this (now last) week (rally too slow)
  6. SPX would reverse back down hard to hit the 1789 double top target (pending) 
  7. That double-top target would be hit Tues - Thurs next (now this) week (ambitious)
Janet Yellen wasn't as much help as I had hoped on Friday morning and while it seems very likely that my 1920 SPX will be hit in trading hours today, this is obvious a solid two days later than I had expected. Does that make the outlook here more bullish? Possibly yes. I'm looking for a test of my 1920 SPX target in trading hours this morning and then I would like to see a very hard rejection from that high. We'll see whether I get that.

I gave three levels to watch on the upside in my Friday morning post. The first was the 38.2% fib at 1898 SPX, and that was the high on Friday. The second was the 200 DMA at 1905/6, and that was the high yesterday. The third is the 50% fib retracement at 1920 and that should be hit today. If SPX breaks that target with confidence there is a fourth level to bear in mind, and that is the daily middle band that closed at 1936 last night and that I'm expecting to close in the 1932 SPX area today. SPX daily chart:
I'm posting the SPX 60min chart just to show the fib retracement levels and to show also that SPX converted the 50 hour MA into support yesterday. That closed yesterday at 1886 and if we see a strong reversal at my 1920 SPX target, then that will be an important level to break on the way back down. SPX 60min chart:
I ran the 15min charts on the main US indices last night to look at the patterns from the lows and three of those, WLSH, NYA and (unusually) SPX, have no clear support trendline established here and therefore no clear pattern. The other four however all have clear patterns and, as is the case with all seven of these indices, have not yet reached their double-bottom or IHS targets from the lows. I will be watching these four with particular interest today as the first sign of serious weakness will be when the support trendlines on these patterns start to break.

On Dow there is a rising megaphone with a high quality support trendline. INDU 15min chart:
On RUT there is a rising megaphone with a high quality support trendline. RUT 15min chart:
On TRAN there is a rising channel with a high quality support trendline. TRAN 15min chart:
On NDX there is a rising wedge with a decent quality support trendline. NDX 15min chart:
Do I have any bullish scenarios here where the low has already been made? Yes, a low that came close but failed to hit pattern support or the double-top target wouldn't be untypical in a situation where a larger reversal pattern was now forming. In that scenario we would see new highs to make the second high of a much larger double top and then a fail with a target in the 1580-1620 area that, as I was noting last Friday, would be an ideal technical target for any more significant retracement from this area.

I'm not expecting that yet though. There wasn't any serious positive divergence on the daily RSI 14, or daily RSI 5, or hourly RSI 14 at the low and while I am certain that there must be previous examples where a 5%+ retracement made such a divergence-free low, I can't recall seeing any in recent years. Until I see strong evidence to the contrary I am expecting at minimum a retest of the current lows.

Ideally I am looking for a hit of my 1920 SPX target in trading hours this morning and then a very strong rejection from there over the next couple of days.

Monday, 20 October 2014

In Between Days

SPX moved away from the daily lower band on Friday and the rally I was looking at is on. The obvious targets on the daily chart are the 200 DMA at 1906 and the daily middle band at 1940. SPX daily chart:
I mentioned the possibility that this rally might fail at the 1898 SPX area on Friday morning, and we have seen a reversal there. I'm a bit concerned about that, as that was a reversal at the 50 hour MA, and a possible IHS neckline. The double bottom target is still the 1920 area, but on a decent break above 1900 there may be an argument for an IHS target in the 1956 area. SPX 60min chart:
Supporting the rally going further up on SPX are the double bottoms on RUT and TRAN. As with SPX there is a possible larger IHS forming on RUT. RUT 60min chart:
There is no obvious IHS forming on TRAN. TRAN 60min chart:
We may see some more retracement from Friday's high this morning, but until I see strong evidence to the contrary I'll be looking for that 1920 SPX target after that. I'll be keeping an eye on these possible IHS patterns and it should be easier to assess those when the low today is made and I may at that stage then have enough data points to identify the rally patterns.

Friday, 17 October 2014

The Shadow of 1987

On Wednesday night, after some seriously wild action had settled down a bit after hours, I made some educated guesses in my trading room about what ES/SPX might do over the next few days. Some of these I also talked about on twitter then and yesterday morning. They were as follows from ES 1842-3 at the time:
  1. ES was making the second low of a double bottom targeting the 1855 area (Topped at 1857)
  2. That move should make the second high of a double top (target 1821 area) (bottomed 1815)
  3. An (Thursday) AM low would be made on SPX in the 1830-40 ES area (low was 1828)
  4. SPX would then break up from an IHS with a target in the 1920 area (pending)
  5. That 1920 area would be reached on Thurs/Fri this week (pending)
  6. SPX would reverse back down hard to hit the 1789 double top target (pending) 
  7. That double-top target would be hit Tues - Thurs next week (pending)
So far those predictions have been doing ok, and we shall see whether SPX can hit the 1920 area and reverse there today. Assisting me in moving SPX to that (50% fibonacci retracement) target today may be my gnome assistant Janet Yellen, who will be making a statement an hour before the open today. That target would need to be reached in trading hours, and is supported by a double bottom target on ES in the 1913 area.

I posted the possible IHS forming on SPX yesterday morning, but the move yesterday was ambiguous, with a rising wedge having formed from Wednesday's low. There are three main options here and I have listed those on the chart, but my preferred option is still that rally to the 1920 area and failure there. We shall see how that goes today. SPX 5min:
There are a couple of possible speed bumps on the way to that target. The first is Tuesday's high at 1898.71 SPX, a whisker above the 38.2% fib retracement target at 1897. The second is broken support at the 200 DMA, now at 1906, but I'd be expecting any move back above the 200 DMA to be an intraday move only in any case, and no major technical damage to my scenario above would be done by a close today at or near that level. A hard fail into the close today would of course be better however. SPX daily chart:
If everything goes to plan,then where should the next (most likely final retracement) low be? Well my preferred target is the 1789 area, and on the weekly chart below you can see that as well as being the double-top target, it is also very close to rising megaphone support from the October 2011 low, and the 23.6% fib retracement of the move from that low. There is strong support in that area. If that support fails then there is strong support at the January low in the 1737 area and that would have a very good chance of holding. SPX weekly chart 2009-date:
Both of these targets would be defined by the current rising megaphone from October 2011. In the first case SPX would be bouncing at megaphone support and heading back to megaphone resistance, now in the 2050 area and rising. In the second case the megaphone would break, and we would most likely then see a retest of the highs to form a larger double top before declining further. Both of these targets should be fairly easily made, but would most likely result in the next move up being limited by megaphone resistance, and therefore fairly boring.

There is a more interesting option that I've been looking at for a few months, but haven't mentioned here before because I was concerned that the men in white coats might then show up at my door, put me in a straitjacket, and take me away to spend some quality time gibbering and drooling with the other deranged unfortunates who have publicly expressed doubts about the existence of an omniscient and omnipotent supreme being ..... that runs the Federal Reserve and will never allow a significant decline in equities to happen again.

This is just an option, and most likely won't happen, but something similar has happened before in another October long ago, and the similarities with the setup here are at least thought-provoking. Now that we have seen enough market turbulence that people have started to remember that markets can sometimes go down rather than up, here is my chart of the 1980-7 period so that I can point out the areas of similarity with the setup today. SPX chart 1980-7:
The points of similarity with the setup in early October 1987 here are as follows:
  1. A five year strong bull run during which time the SPX more than tripled - CHECK
  2. A extreme level of complacency at the highs - CHECK
  3. Two main patterns in that 5 year run, first a rising wedge and second a rising megaphone - CHECK
  4. An established support trendline at a 50% fib retracement level - CHECK
  5. A clear weekly RSI 14 sell signal that was still far short of the 30 level target as megaphone support was approached - CHECK
  6. A double top with a target at megaphone support that has broken down but has not quite hit megaphone support - CHECK
Why that last one? Because SPX never did hit that megaphone support trendline in 1987. SPX almost made it, so close that I dare say that some traders had already started scaling in long in anticipation of the next move up. We most likely won't see a repeat of the 1987 'crash' (just a fast bullish retracement  really) here but the resemblance between these two setups is eerily close, and at the least I would suggest waiting to reverse long until megaphone support is actually hit, and definitely not rushing to buy the dip on a gap below megaphone support. 

That 1550 area target is also attractive because it would do two other important things. It would break the current rising megaphone, which looks like comforting support now, but would quickly become confining resistance if we see a retracement low there. It would also retest massive broken resistance at the 2000 and 2007 highs, and the secular bear market pattern, for which those two highs defined the resistance trendline, that broke up in the first part of 2013. The target for that pattern is the 2450 area, and I posted that in June 2013. You can see that chart here. Again I was fairly quiet about that target then as I was already getting strange looks about the more modest 1965 wedge target that I announced with more fanfare then as well. If we were to see that 50% fib retrace and pattern retest, the obvious pattern target for the next move up would then be that 2450 SPX target, which would be a lot of fun. 

Back to the situation this morning I'm disappointed to see that this current small correction after SPX has tripled in five years has failed to panic Yellen into action this morning, so if SPX is going to make 1920 today, it will most likely need to manage that without Fed assistance. The current 25 point gap up from the close yesterday looks cautiously encouraging, and we'll see whether that can be done. I would warn that any longs are still counter-trend here in my view