- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Tuesday, 19 August 2014

The 50 DMA Breaks Up

The daily RSI 5 closed back over the 70 level and my RSI 5 / NYMO buy signal has now made target, now making that 16 of the 18 such signals since the start of 2007 to make that target, with the other two failing just above 60. The 50 DMA broke up with conviction yesterday and both that, now at 1958, and the daily middle band, now at 1952, should now be strong support. The next bollinger band target is in the 2000 area and I am expecting this move up to fail under rising wedge resistance, now in the 2015 area. The pattern setup here is suggesting strongly that on the bigger picture we are making the second high of a double top before a larger retracement coming sometime soon. SPX daily chart:
The IHS target on SPX is at 1987 and I am expecting that to be made as the minimum upside target here. SPX 60min chart:
The uptrend has the support for the moment of IHS patterns that have broken up across all the main US indices. Only NDX has made target so far and all the others have some distance yet to cover. One of the nicest looking IHS patterns is on RUT, though that is also the weakest index. The IHS target is in the 1190-5 area and if that target can be made then we should see new highs on most other indices while that happens. RUT 60min chart:
There are three indices where I am doubtful about new highs being made, and they are RUT, Dow and NYA. These all have IHS targets well short of new highs, and the bigger picture on Dow looks to me as though the main high may have already been made there. NYA is the index of all stocks listed on NYSE so makes a good very broad index to keep track of. NYA 60min chart:
I'm not seeing anything to suggest that we might be close to a high on this uptrend, and as long as the SPX holds above the 50 DMA and daily middle band over the rest of the week I'll be assuming that the short term uptrend is solid. Most indices are forming bull flags on the 60min charts, and I'm leaning towards seeing another day of consolidation with a mild upward bias today.

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