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Wednesday, 20 August 2014

IHS Update

Another grinding day up yesterday, and the Dow IHS has also now made target. At this point, of the main US indices, NDX has made and far exceeded the IHS target there, Dow has just made the IHS target and WLSH has made the double bottom target there.

That leaves four of these main index bullish reversal patterns that have not yet made target. The first of those is the IHS on SPX. That came within six points of the IHS target at 1987 yesterday and could make that today if we have another grind up. SPX 60min chart:
The NYA IHS is also close to target and could make it to target on a strong day today. NYA 60min chart:
The same applies to TRAN. TRAN 60min chart:
RUT has been the problem child IHS from the start and is the one that I'm thinking might not make target. If it does make target then would most likely do that in the context of significantly higher highs on SPX. RUT 60min chart:
So what happens after the remaining IHS patterns, with the possible exception of RUT, make their targets? My lean is towards new highs on SPX that could go as high as rising wedge resistance in the 2015 area. That new high should be the second high of a double top before a larger move down.

Will it be the second high of a double top? Well the bears have been run over repeatedly over the last couple of years, and while the pattern setup strongly favors that scenario, I'm not ruling out a bullish break upwards. If we do see that wedge resistance trendline broken with any confidence I'll be working up targets for that break, but not before.

Short term we could see a retracement today, and if we were to see that I'd be looking for decent support in the 1968/9 area at the last retracement low and the 38.2% fib retracement level for this move. I'd be looking for a long entry there.

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