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Thursday, 15 May 2014

Who Knew?

SPX held the SPX 1min rising channel for a while yesterday, but then it broke and we have been seeing a more substantial retracement. Could the Spring high now be in? Yes, but we're really going to need to see some more evidence before assuming that, and that's what I'll be looking at today. 

There's not much to say on the NDX chart other than to reiterate that a failure at this week's high would be an ideal right shoulder high on the very large H&S that has been forming there. I'll therefore start with RUT where RUT is now back within the falling channel that broke up on Monday. That situation isn't at panic stations yet and a low near yesterday's close in the 1100 area would be an ideal right shoulder low on a possible IHS, and a  low in the 1080-90 would make a possible second low on a possible larger double-bottom. Under there the bullish options get much thinner, but until then the bullish scenario is still in play. RUT 60min chart:
On SPX I've been saying since the break up on Monday that the breakaway gap at 1878.48 SPX needs to remain intact until the breakaway move is complete. That is therefore very important support today and if that gap is filled that will look pretty bearish. If that is filled then I have rising support from 1814 in the 1873-5 area, and rising support from 1737 in the 1850 area. If 1850 is broken then then next target on the road to 1570 will be double-top support at 1814. SPX 60min chart:
The daily middle band closed yesterday at 1878 so with the unfilled breakaway gap 1878-80 is very important support today. If we see a break under the middle band then support at the 50 DMA is at 1868. If 1868 is broken then the spring high is most likely in. SPX daily chart:
I posted the beautiful rising channel on AAPL from the lows on twitter yesterday and thought I should post that again here today. Rising channel resistance is in the 640 area and the current consolidation looks like a bull flag. What does this tell us about the broader market? Not much, correlation has been strong over the last year, but there was little on no correlation the year before that. AAPL daily chart:
TLT is still progressing towards the falling megaphone resistance that should be the key inflection point for the rest of the year. Not far away now. Here is the updated projection I did in January. TLT daily chart:
On this last chart I've been reading with some bemusement articles about the strange move on bonds in recent months and laughed aloud when I read yesterday night about Jeff Gundlach's crazy prediction back in January that bond prices would do since then what they have done. I predicted the same and I haven't even had to move any arrows. How have Jeff and I achieved this forecasting miracle? Well that's a pretty obvious falling megaphone, and unlike almost everybody else, when consider what might happen to bond prices as QE3 winds down, I and I assume also Jeff, looked back to see what happened at the ends of QE1 and QE2. So far things are playing out now much as they did then. Who knew?

Do or die for the bulls today. If Monday's breakaway gap is filled then further downside will open up, and every step down will make it more likely that the spring high was made on Tuesday, and that we now have months of retracement ahead of us. I'm expecting a test of support at 1878-80 SPX today, and we'll see what happens there. 

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