- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Thursday, 22 May 2014

Only Uncertainty is Certain

Bulls beat the stats and repaired a lot of damage yesterday, closing with a clear break above the 50 hour MA. If that turns into support then the path is clear fora retest of the highs. If SPX makes a new high with any confidence then the next upside target would be rising wedge resistance in the 1930-40 area. SPX 60min chart:
How would a 1930-40 target fit with the SPX weekly chart? Reasonably, rising channel resistance from the 2011 low has already been tested twice without a return to test channel support, but while a third test is rarer, it is far from unknown. Primary rising channel resistance is also currently in the 1930-40 area and is rising at about 15 points per month. SPX weekly chart:
NDX closed at 3635 yesterday, and I gave the 3635 area as the ideal right shoulder high on 21st April. A general break up from here would obviously now weaken the H&S setup and invite a test of the current all time highs, which I'd be seeing as the likely second high of a double-top that would target the same area as the failed H&S setup. NDX weekly chart:
RUT has been beaten down so hard lately that the trailing PE ratio has been beaten all the way back down to 73.3 (as of 16th May). Is there a buying opportunity at these depressed levels? Well again, if there is a general break up then it is very possible that RUT may have finished the head on a large head and shoulder pattern. Ideally the right shoulder there would peak in the 1182 area by the end of June. RUT daily chart:
Looking at the oil chart the obvious next target for WTIC/CL is the 105 area. That area is strong resistance but if broken it would open up a test of the 2013 high at 112. A strong reversal could start a slide back into the 80s so 105 is worth watching carefully. WTIC daily chart:
I'm still leaning short here, and don't think that a strong new high on SPX is likely. I'm leaning towards seeing a failure short of the high or a marginal new high before turning back down again. However, the only way to find out for sure is to see what happens here, and as I have detailed above, my alternate scenario is workable and could play out. My preferred scenario is that SPX has already topped or will make a marginal new high in the near future, but as long as bulls can hold above the 50 hour MA on SPX, they have another shot at breaking into the 1900s.

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