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Friday, 11 April 2014

Are We Having Fun Yet?

Well I was saying yesterday morning that the bears needed to reverse Wednesday's break up quickly yesterday and so they did. It's been a while since I saw a decent bull setup like that trashed as thoroughly and quickly as that was, and that is certainly food for thought.

After the break back under the daily middle band we returned to the original schedule that I outlined on Tuesday morning, which was that the move into Wednesday's close was a rally, to be followed by a new wave down resulting in a lower low, and so here we are this morning.

We now have a pattern for this move down from 1897 SPX, and it is a falling wedge. I posted it last night on twitter and here it is on the SPX 60min chart below. You can see that falling wedge support is currently intersecting the theoretical alternate rising channel support that I showed on Wednesday morning, and if this is just another pullback, then the obvious low would be at that intersection in the 1825-7 SPX area today. We could see SPX go lower, as falling wedges sometimes underthrow before breaking up, but the low would need to be a few points lower at most.

Falling wedges are 70% bullish of course, so classically the odds of a break up targeting a retest of the 1897 SPX high are 70%, and the odds of a break down targeting (in effect) the 1737 SPX low are 30%. Considering the overall background I'd be inclined to put that closer to 50/50 in this case. SPX 60min chart:
The close today is very important on the weekly chart as it is of course the weekly close. The weekly middle band is at 1830 SPX and bears want a conviction break below it today. Ideally 1820 SPX and lower but at least under 1825 SPX. SPX weekly chart:
On the SPX daily chart I have redrawn the current channel again, and am showing my best candidate, though I'm still not 100% happy with it. This version would favor a break down here towards a test of 1737 and likely reversal there. That level is a decent H&S neckline candidate of course, though it is also support on a decent looking possible double-top. Either way the downside target would be the 1575 area, which would be a hit of the ideal technical target for any strong retracement this year, at the retest of broken resistance at the 2000 and 2007 highs. SPX daily chart;
I have a nice looking rising wedge on CL here, but there is also a possible-double-top forming that needs to be considered because of the negative daily RSI divergence on the last high. You can see that over the last five similar signals all signalled reversals that hit oversold (from sell signal) or overbought (from buy signal), and that this last one hasn't made that target yet. It may not of course, but if we see CL drop back under 100 I have a double-top setup to take CL back to 90. CL daily chart:
This is a technically important day, and we will most likely see either a break down towards a retest of 1737 SPX, or the start of a break up towards a retest of the 1897 SPX area. This could very much go either way in my view so I'm not planning to get married to any positions before this clarifies.

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