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Wednesday, 26 March 2014

Double-Top or Range?

SPX closed back over the daily middle band yesterday but only three points above. In effect that is a close on the band as was the close on Monday, so SPX is consolidating around the middle band before a break either way. I'm still leaning very much towards a bearish resolution here, but I may be mistaken. SPX daily chart:
The question here is whether SPX has formed a double top, or is just consolidating sideways in a range. A double-top would resolve down, and a consolidation would most likely resolve up. I have marked up the range option on the SPX 15min chart below and if we were to see another break over strong resistance in the 1874/5 area again then this would most likely be a range. I'm not expecting to see that, but if the spike into a marginal new high last week was a false break, then it should not really be retested. ES is just below that main resistance level now, so we'll see how that goes this morning. SPX 15min chart:
Even if this is just a consolidation range, there is a downside target that I'd expect to see hit before the next leg up, and that is rising channel support on TRAN. That would suggest at least one more leg down within this range. TRAN 60min chart:
On other markets DX is looking as though it may finally break up hard. If so then I would expect the current IHS forming on DX to complete and break up. The rising shoulder is well advanced on that pattern and I'm watching to see which way this will go. DX 60min chart:
The double-top setup here is technically excellent, nested double-tops into the obvious target for the summer retracement. If this was a bullish setup then it would almost certainly deliver. As a bearish setup it should deliver, given the timing, QE tapering etc, but it's hard to have much confidence in the bear side after the last few years. As it is I have confidence in this setup, but we'll need to see some signs of life on the bear side soon, and the setup would be significantly weakened by any break up over strong resistance at 1874/5 SPX.

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