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Monday, 31 March 2014

1795 or Boost

To an extent Friday went much as I laid it out in the morning. SPX overshot the perfect retests of the daily middle band and the 50 hour MA by a couple of points, but on the NDX and RUT patterns I was looking at we saw perfect tests and reversals at pattern resistance. This gives the bears the edge as long as resistance on those patterns holds, and gives me two excellent marker patterns to watch as we wait to see whether the double-top on SPX is going to break support at 1839/40. 

While these last I'll be posting both of the NDX and RUT patterns every day, and on RUT the next obvious target is the double-top target in the 1130 area, the 61.8% fib retrace just above at 1132, and falling channel support which is currently in the same area. RUT 60min chart:
On NDX the H&S target in the 3500 area is now a decent fit with falling wedge support and the obvious next move is to that area. NDX 60min chart:
So far, so bearish, but the setups on SPX and ES are much more ambiguous here, with an impressive three bullish patterns established towards the end of last week, all of which must be broken before the double-top can play out. Two of those patterns were established on SPX, and they are a new rising channel from the 1737 low, and a 70% bullish ascending triangle. If that triangle breaks down then the 1795 area target is the same as the double-top target, but if it breaks up the target would be the 1933 area. SPX 60min chart:
The other bullish pattern is on ES and that is a rising channel from the low last week. Channel support is currently in the 1852 area and channel resistance is currently in the 1868 area, which if we were to see it would be yet another test of 1874/5 resistance on SPX. ES 60min chart:
On the SPX daily chart the close today is important. The high on Friday was a decent retest of the daily middle band. If that holds then the next target is a retest of the lower band, now at 1840, and if SPX can break back above the middle band then the upper band is now at 1886. SPX daily chart:
On other markets the EEM chart was mentioned to me a couple of times last week, and I've been neglecting that chart lately because it has been, and remains, rather uninteresting. EEM has been forming a large symmetrical triangle since the 2011 high, and is moving back towards triangle resistance. The available range within this triangle is now less than 5. I'm also not keen on triangles as I've mentioned before and while this triangle is telling us that we should expect to see a test of range resistance at 47.5 or range support at 32.5 in the not too distant future, it's hard to say which of those is more likely, though I'm leaning long on the basis that the last test of one of those was a test of range support. EEM weekly chart:
ES is at 1861 as I write, and if that holds into the open then the patterns on NDX and RUT will most likely break up. If that happens then we might well still see a test of the lows there, but the technical odds would be shifting significantly in favor of the bull side overall. On the bigger picture SPX is either topping out or consolidating here, and if we don't see a break down soon, then we're going to see SPX break up instead. 

Friday, 28 March 2014

Topping Spectrum

I was asked yesterday what odds I would give to the Spring high already being in and a retracement towards a retest of the 1550-1600 having already started. I replied that if this was a bullish setup I'd be giving odds and 90% +, but as it was a bearish setup I'd be thinking 70/30. That may be too cautious, but the bears have been having significant performance issues in recent years.

On the SPX daily chart the opening spike down tested the lower bollinger band, and made the low for the day there. At the time of writing ES has rallied about 12 handles from there and the obvious resistance levels are in the 1848 and 1856 areas on ES (1855 and 1863 on SPX). The obvious target for a strong bounce off the daily lower bollinger band is of course the middle bollinger band, and that is currently at 1863 SPX, the higher of those two resistance levels. SPX daily chart:
On the SPX 60min chart double-bottom support is at 1839/40 and that has not yet broken down of course. If we see a bounce to test the daily middle band at 1863 SPX then it's worth noting that the 50 hour MA closed yesterday at 1864 SPX. That 1863/4 resistance should now be solid and if we should see a break over it now then may still just be trading a range rather than topping out. SPX 60min chart:
I've been running Dow, TRAN, NDX and RUT charts to get a spectrum of what is happening on US equity markets and these all have clear topping setups but are at different stages. Dow is the strongest of the four, having broken the declining channel there now but still testing double-top support on the smallest of the three nested double-tops on that chart. Dow 60min chart:
TRAN is just a little weaker, trading under first double-top support, having broken the rising channel there on the same day as Dow. TRAN 60min chart:
On NDX and RUT the process is more advanced and they have clearly broken down from their topping patterns. On RUT the double-top has broken down with a target in the 1130 area, and a falling channel has formed from the last high. The next obvious move within that falling channel is a bounce to test falling channel resistance, currently in the 1170 area but falling fast. RUT 60min chart:
On NDX the H&S has broken down with a target in the 3500 area. A falling wedge has formed from the high and the next obvious move within that wedge is a test of wedge resistance, currently in the 3610 area and falling fast. NDX 60min chart:
There is clear bull/bear line today on SPX at 1863/4, which is 1856/7 on ES. My ideal day would be a morning test of that level, followed by failure that would break SPX down through 1839/40 double-top support. There is decent resistance at 1855 SPX however and it may be that any rally today might stall there.

Thursday, 27 March 2014

Testing Range Support

SPX held 1874/5 resistance yesterday morning and then declined strongly to close eleven points under the daily middle band, which is a definite break downwards from the middle band. The next target is the lower bollinger band at 1841, just above double-top support at 1839/40. SPX daily chart:
Now that SPX is near the bottom of the current range again the question is whether SPX can break below strong support at 1850 and test double-bottom support at 1839/40. If we do the same today as we have in the last few days, with an AM high followed by a strong decline, then we will no doubt find that out this morning. Worth mentioning that AM high followed by weakness is a bear trend characteristic just as AM low followed by strength is a bull trend characteristic. SPX 60min chart:
Yesterday morning I was saying that if we are in a consolidation range rather than forming a double-top, then I would expect another swing down to test rising channel support on TRAN. That rising channel support was tested at the close yesterday (buffs fingernails modestly). If this is a consolidation range then this channel support touch should be the springboard for the next move up. If this is a double-top on TRAN, Dow and SPX, then channel will break. I'll be watching that with interest this morning. TRAN 60min chart:
Strengthening that channel support setup on TRAN is the rising channel on Dow, which is close to retesting channel support for the fourth time in two weeks. it's worth mentioning that repeated trendline retests in a short timeframe like these generally result in a break downwards. Dow 60min chart:
On other markets Gold is at an interesting stage. The strong rally from the last low topped out on negative daily RSI divergence, and the retracement from that doesn't look finished yet as the daily RSI has not yet tested the 30 level. Gold is now retesting the very important 150 DMA however and that is an obvious level from which to see a strong rally. Gold daily chart:
The GLD 60min chart looks encouraging for a rally here. The rising megaphone from the low has broken down, which strongly suggests more downside later, but in the short term the 60min RSI is oversold and showing increasing positive divergence. GLD may well rally here. GLD 60min chart:
I continue to lean towards a break down and then those double-tops playing out, but we could see a last rally first from here before that happens. one way the other though, SPX will break up or down from this range in the near future, and when that happens the direction of the break should be respected.

Wednesday, 26 March 2014

Double-Top or Range?

SPX closed back over the daily middle band yesterday but only three points above. In effect that is a close on the band as was the close on Monday, so SPX is consolidating around the middle band before a break either way. I'm still leaning very much towards a bearish resolution here, but I may be mistaken. SPX daily chart:
The question here is whether SPX has formed a double top, or is just consolidating sideways in a range. A double-top would resolve down, and a consolidation would most likely resolve up. I have marked up the range option on the SPX 15min chart below and if we were to see another break over strong resistance in the 1874/5 area again then this would most likely be a range. I'm not expecting to see that, but if the spike into a marginal new high last week was a false break, then it should not really be retested. ES is just below that main resistance level now, so we'll see how that goes this morning. SPX 15min chart:
Even if this is just a consolidation range, there is a downside target that I'd expect to see hit before the next leg up, and that is rising channel support on TRAN. That would suggest at least one more leg down within this range. TRAN 60min chart:
On other markets DX is looking as though it may finally break up hard. If so then I would expect the current IHS forming on DX to complete and break up. The rising shoulder is well advanced on that pattern and I'm watching to see which way this will go. DX 60min chart:
The double-top setup here is technically excellent, nested double-tops into the obvious target for the summer retracement. If this was a bullish setup then it would almost certainly deliver. As a bearish setup it should deliver, given the timing, QE tapering etc, but it's hard to have much confidence in the bear side after the last few years. As it is I have confidence in this setup, but we'll need to see some signs of life on the bear side soon, and the setup would be significantly weakened by any break up over strong resistance at 1874/5 SPX.

Tuesday, 25 March 2014

SPX Rising Channel Broken

The rising channel on SPX broke yesterday and I'm leaning towards the view now that the Spring high was made last Friday and that SPX has started the move to retest broken resistance at the 2000 and 2007 highs that I've been expecting to see this summer. Obviously the bears have dropped the ball a lot of times in the last few years, but I would expect this setup to resolve down. SPX broke back below the daily middle bollinger band yesterday and as long as that holds on a daily basis then the next target is the daily lower bollinger band in the 1837 area, currently just under smaller double-top support at 1839/40. SPX daily chart:
Now that the SPX rising channel has been broken the next step is to break below the 1850 range floor that held yesterday and then break double-top support at 1839/40. that would open up the double-bottom target at 1795. The bounce yesterday stalled at the retest of broken channel support and the 50 hour MA. That resistance may hold today but we may bounce higher without weakening the overall topped or topping setup here. SPX 60min chart:
One other priority for bears here is to break the rising channels that are still intact on Dow and TRAN. Dow tested rising channel support with SPX last week but has outperformed since. Dow 60min chart:
On other markets I have charted up FVX (5yr treasury yields) over the last twenty years and would like to show the inflection point approaching there. Overall the setup is bullish and the bull market from 1980 most likely ended in 2012. However there is no bottoming pattern yet and there is a possible double-top forming that would retest the 2012 low area. This of course would be a good fit with the face-ripper rallies on bonds seen at the ends of QE1 and QE2. I'll be watching the RSI 5 on a retest of the current rally high at 18.88 to see whether we are likely to see reversal there. FVX weekly chart:
For today we may see a bounce higher and if so I'd be looking for strong resistance in the 1874/5 area. Key support is at yesterday's low at 1850.

Monday, 24 March 2014

A Modest Proposal

SPX gapped up hard over 1874/5 resistance on Friday morning, and if that had held then that would have been a very bullish breakaway gap. Instead SPX made a very marginal new high before failing hard and filling the gap, and that was not at all bullish. If bears can follow through this week then there will be a very real possibility that the Spring high was made on Friday slightly earlier than usual.

To follow through the bears must break back below the 50 hour MA, currently at 1866, and the daily middle bollinger band, currently at 1861, and rising channel support, currently in the 1659 area. If they can do that then there is now a perfect double-top that would target the 1794/5 area on a break below the last low at 1839.57. That would be an almost perfect 61.8% fib retracement of the move up from the 1737 low, but there is also a much larger double-top in play that would target the 1592 area on a break below the 1737 low, and I'll be looking at that possibility today.

For now on the daily chart SPX is still holding above the middle bollinger band in the 1861 area, and if SPX breaks back below that then the obvious next targets would be the lower band, currently at 1837, and the 50 DMA, currently at 1832. Worth noting on this chart is that main primary rising channel support is now in the 1780 area. SPX daily chart:
On the SPX 60min chart bulls really need to perform here to stay within the current rising channel. On a break below there is now a perfect double-top targeting 1795 on a break below 1839.57. If SPX was to overshoot and break the primary rising channel support trendline in the 1780 area then there is also a larger double-top in play targeting the 1592 area on a break below 1737. That would be very close to a 38.2% fib retracement of the move up from the October 2011 low at 1074. SPX 60min chart:
Is there any support for this overall setup on other US indices? Yes, particularly on Dow where there is a very similar setup, though where SPX has made a series of marginal new highs since the late December high, Dow has made a series of three marginal lower highs. Again I'll be watching the current rising channel for a break. Dow 60min chart:
How would this fit in to my longer term view on SPX? Not badly at actually. My charts would look at bit neater if my 1965 wedge target was to be hit before the next big retracement, but could equally be hit afterwards, and I have a larger scenario that I showed in passing in one of my Brave New World posts last summer, and that I'll talk about more now.

The secular bear market pattern on SPX that formed between the high in 2000 and the break up over secular bear market resistance in early 2013 was a right-angled and descending broadening formation, or BFRAD for short. I've had very good results from these patterns in the past and the technical target for this pattern is in the 2450-2500 range on SPX. My thoughts last summer were that we would see a sharp move up to make my wedge target, and then a sharp retracement to retest broken BFRAD resistance in the 1550-1600 area, and then we would see a new wave up to make the BFRAD target in the 2450-2500 area and complete a five wave sequence up from the March 2009 low.

That we now have a topping pattern part formed on SPX that would target that ideal BFRAD retest area is most definitely something to bear in mind if short term rising channel support on SPX and Dow should be broken here. SPX monthly chart:
For now we are at a very important inflection point. Bulls need to run SPX up to new highs and away from support, and bears need to break that support. A strong showing from either side could set the direction for the next few weeks.

Friday, 21 March 2014

Going for Gold

Today is a very important day on SPX. Yesterday the bulls rallied it all the way back up to range resistance at 1874/5, the level seen at the last two rally highs and the neckline for what looks a lot like an IHS, but isn't because the decline into it is too short. Nonetheless if that level is 1874/5 level is broken the 'IHS' target in the 1910 area will most likely be made. Looking at ES we may will see a gap over that resistance at the open, and as long as bulls can avoid that opening gap being filled, I would see that as bullish confirmation that the next move up towards my 1965 target from last June has now started. I have rising channel resistance in the 1910-20 area and rising steadily. If we see a big fail at this resistance today then my alternate bear H&S scenario is still in play on a break below the rising channel. SPX 60min chart:
SPX broke back over the daily middle bollinger band yesterday and as long as SPX can break up through 1874/5 today the next target is the upper band, currently at 1887. SPX daily chart:
I haven't been posting many gold charts this year, but I was saying in January that the gold bull market might well be resuming and that the most interesting setup this year might well be buying into that. Since I last posted my GLD daily chart on 7th Jan GLD has broken the falling channel and has broken back over the very important 150 DMA. It has now developed and broken down from daily negative RSI divergence and the last seven divergence signals like this marked on the chart all made the setup target, which in this case would be the 30 level on the daily RSI 14. I think this is most likely going to be the last decent retracement before the likely new bull market on gold breaks up hard so I'll be watching this carefully. GLD daily chart:
On the 60min chart GLD has formed a rising megaphone from the last low which broke up slightly from at the last high, indicating a likely break down soon. We may see an H&S form at the possible 127.5 neckline, in which case I'd expect to see a right shoulder rally into the 129-30 area before the break down towards a target in the 121-2 area. I'm watching this mainly for the buy opportunity at that low but this is an interesting short setup as well. GLD 60min chart:
This is an important day for the bulls and at the moment it looks as though they will gap up hard over resistance at 1874/5. If that gap holds today that break up should be respected and I would expect to see 1900 tested and broken in the next few days, on the way to my main wedge target at 1965.

Wednesday, 19 March 2014

There Is No Coin

In the midst of this strange day I saw something very funny on twitter, which was an analyst saying that 'Bitcoin is a virtual currency without any value anchor so ....' As opposed to what I wonder? In a world where vast quantities of new money are being created, and where respected economists are starting to mention seriously the possibility that the Fed could or should buy some or all of the US National Debt back with an even larger flood of newly created digital dollars, one can't help wondering where real currency with a solid value anchor might exist. I am no Bitcoin fan but it's hard in the world we see around us to deny the advantages of a having access to a currency that cannot be debased by central bankers.

Back on the markets today, at the interface where fantasy fiat currency meets at least some real assets, there was a shockwave as Yellen helped participants out with some basic math by telling them that if the Fed continues to taper at the current rate then QE3 will be ending in the Fall. Regular readers of mine may recall me mentioning that some months ago. More damage was done when she suggested that interest rates might be raised from zero to slightly above zero sometime next year. I gave two support levels on SPX in my post this morning and the first at the SPX 50 hour MA was tested to within 0.3 points on the move after the Fed announcement, and the second at rising channel support from the 1737 low was tested perfectly on the plunge after Yellen's explanatory comments. Rising channel support on Dow was tested at the same time.

So what does this mean? Well firstly I'm giving some thought to adding my post this morning to the Hall of Fame section on my blog, but there were also some technical implications that I'd like to look at, and as the rubber may be meeting the road in earnest on either of my bull or bear scenarios here tomorrow, I'm publishing this post tonight rather than as usual tomorrow morning.

On the bull scenario on SPX (and Dow) rising channel support was tested again today and held, leaving the trendline stronger and as long as that trendline continues to hold then the uptrend is ongoing and we should see a retest of the highs in the near future. On this scenario we would most likely see a decent rally tomorrow. SPX 60min chart - bull view:
On Dow the setup is very similar, down to another perfect test of rising channel support there. Dow 60min chart - bull view:
So what if rising channel support doesn't keep holding? Well the touch today was a two edged sword. It strengthens the trendline, but it also makes a trendline break more likely, and if we see that rising channel break, it will now look more serious and be more likely to be followed through to the downside. That matters because in the absence of the channel I have a largely completed upsloping H&S forming on SPX, and while the current 1839 low failed to hit any fib area of significance, this H&S would almost exactly target the 61.8% fib retracement at 1794 SPX. SPX 60min chart - bear view:
How would that look on Dow? Pretty similar but with minor differences. The H&S would be downsloping, and while the fib target would be in an acceptable 76.4% fib retrace area, Dow already made a perfectly decent 38.2% fib retrace at the current low. The H&S is decent quality though and if the rising channel is broken then it may well play out. Dow 60min chart - bear view:
So which way will it play tomorrow? Well as long as the rising channels hold the bull scenario is more attractive. If they break down then these bear scenarios will become my primary scenarios and on a break below the H&S necklines then they should play out to target. That wouldn't break the SPX main uptrend, as I have primary channel support in the 1775 area, though it would bring SPX dangerously close to testing that.

I may post another couple of charts before the open tomorrow but I've stayed up late to post this, so very possibly not.

Rising Channels established on SPX and Dow

SPX broke up through both falling megaphone and 50 hour MA resistance yesterday morning, and as I said yesterday morning, that break targets at least a test of the current highs and most likely higher. The next target on the SPX daily chart is the daily upper bollinger band, currently at 1887. SPX daily chart:
Three weeks ago as SPX was first hitting the weekly upper band I commented that the weekly upper band was historically formidable resistance, and that we were likely either to consolidate under it or have an impulse move up that moved only at 10-15 points per week. Since then we have in effect consolidated, and the weekly bands have been pinching together, which should allow a slightly faster move up if we rise directly from here. The weekly upper band is currently at 1882, but if the rest of the week is strong that could close the week as high as 1890-5. SPX weekly chart:
So what is happening on the shorter term charts? Well I was having a look at all the main US indices yesterday looking for clues for what comes next and the first thing to say is that a rising channel has now established from the 1737 low. That gives this current uptrend structure and support, so the key short term support levels on SPX are now the 50 hour MA, currently at 1863, and rising channel support in the 1845 area. I am expecting that this channel will hold until this (most likely) final move into the Spring high is either topped or topping, most likely after at least a very serious attempt to reach my wedge target at 1965. SPX 60min chart:
To back up that SPX rising channel there is also now a rising channel from the same low on Dow. That is further backed up by the double-top on Dow that failed just after breaking below double-top support. This would generally indicate a sharp reaction in the opposite direction. Dow 60min chart:
The only reversal pattern worth the mention at the low this week was on RUT, where an IHS formed at broke up targeting new highs. I've mentioned the possibility that might make the second high of a double-top, but given the overall picture I think that's doubtful. RUT 60min chart:
Overall I'm pretty confident that a move to new highs has started, and my eye is on my wedge target in the 1965 area. As long as the SPX rising channel remains unbroken then this uptrend is well supported and there is little reason to think that a high is imminent or even very close. Buy the dips until further notice. Fed day today so we may well experience the usual Fed turbulence.

Tuesday, 18 March 2014

Back at the SPX 50 Hour MA

Last Thursday morning SPX was looking like it might gap up over the very important support/resistance level at the 50 hour MA, and I was saying that a gap over that should be respected unless the opening gap was then filled. SPX then tested the 50 hour MA at the opening print and fell 30 points or so after the failure there.

We have a similar setup this morning, and as was the case then, a gap over the 50 hour MA should be respected as an unfilled gap over a resistance level is the strongest kind of resistance break in my view. As with the last time a strong reversal there this morning should be respected as well.

The setup is therefore unusually clear this morning. With the 50 hour MA very close to falling megaphone resistance on my SPX 60min chart, a gap over the 50 hour MA is a gap over double resistance there, and if we see that I would expect at least a test of the current highs in the near future. A failure there would strongly suggest a new swing down to test the strong support range around the 38.2% retrace level at 1827. Technically I'm leaning short here. In practical terms however I'll wait and see what happens at the open. SPX 60min chart:
On the SPX daily chart the close yesterday was within three points (above) the middle bollinger band. My downside targets at the 50 DMA and the lower band have not been tested, but a strong close above the middle band today would suggest that they won't be, and would open up the upper band, currently at 1886, as the likely next target. SPX daily chart:
The TRAN chart conceded the break back above double-top support yesterday and that has allowed SPX to come close to testing megaphone resistance, though that was just missed yesterday. TRAN has formed a falling channel from the highs and a break above that would be bullish. Absent that break the obvious target remains well below at the 38.2% fib retrace. TRAN 60min chart:
On other markets USD is moving towards the retest of 78.60 that I've been mentioning as a possibility for some months now. At that test USD will either reverse back up in a large double-bottom to retest the 2012/3 highs, or break down in an even larger double-top to retest the 2011 lows. Of the two options I think the bull case is much more compelling, but it may go the other way. USD daily chart:
TNX broke up from a small double-bottom targeting a retest of the 2014 highs, and that pattern failed. We may well see a break back down to test major double-top support at 24.71. TNX 60min chart:
Oil broke back below double-bottom support after developing the daily negative RSI divergence that I pointed out a few days ago. Historically we won't see a daily trend reversal back up until the daily RSI has at least touched the 30 level, with that just over 40 at the moment. WTIC daily chart:
I'm leaning short on SPX here, as in my view the obvious retracement targets have not been hit, and the test of falling megaphone resistance here is only what I have predicted as the next significant move on the last two mornings. What would change my view is a break over megaphone resistance and the 50 hour MA, and we could see SPX gap over both at the open. I'll be watching that carefully. If we see a break up then the next swing target is a retest of the highs. If we see a break up but SPX fails to close an hour over the 50 hour MA and fills the gap, then the next swing target will still be at least a retest of the highs, but there will be a serious danger that we will see the current lows retested first. If we see a failure at megaphone resistance and the 50 hour MA then my target area is 1823-9, and it's possible that SPX may go lower.

Monday, 17 March 2014

Wonderful Singing Voices

People really are strange. A former British politician called Tony Benn died a couple of days ago and politicians of all political stripes here have been queuing up to say something nice about him, even though he spent his political life trying to make the UK more like the USSR, happily failing to achieve anything of his main aims. One wonders what nice things might have been said about Hitler, Mussolini, Mao or Pol Pot had they spent their lives trying and failing to enslave and bankrupt the UK, and then died here in frustrated and impotent old age.

Equally with Crimea, which was never part of Ukraine before it was given to Ukraine as a gift in 1954, has never had a ukrainian majority, and has been the main reason both that pro-Russian kleptocrat Yanukovich has been elected to the Presidency twice, and that Russia is determined to keep Ukraine with its 'Sphere of Influence'. You would think that Ukraine would be keen to rid itself of this poisoned gift, but whenever changing borders are discussed anywhere everyone seems to dust off the local version of the Horst Wessel song and start singing it while vowing to make endless war to keep Calais British , or whatever the local equivalent might be.

Be that as it may, ES fell at the globex open on the Crimean Referendum result and then more than recovered. The possible H&S neckline that everyone has been watching has been hit, though a hit and reversal there would look much more significant on the SPX chart, and ES has rallied to test the daily middle bollinger band which was resistance on both ES and SPX on Friday. If ES can break back above then the obvious target would be falling megaphone resistance, currently in the 1860 area. ES 60min chart:
The falling megaphone setup is similar on SPX, with falling megaphone resistance currently in the 1867 area, exactly equivalent to the ES pattern. SPX 60min chart:
Can SPX rally back, however briefly, over the middle bollinger band? Well yes, but that looks like tough resistance, and SPX may fail there again today. The resistance looks all the stronger because on the TRAN the high on Friday was a retest of broken double-top support. The TRAN chart is telling us both to expect lower prices soon, which I'd expect in any case, but also that resistance at Friday's highs may be solid. TRAN 60min chart:
As and when we do see lower prices there is a very clear target area 1823-9 SPX. On a clear break of the daily middle band I would expect a test of either or both of the 50 DMA and the lower band, currently at 1829 and 1823 respectively. With the 38.2% fib retracement target at 1827 we are very likely to hit that target area and the retracement low could well be seen there. SPX daily chart:
The pattern setup on ES and SPX would be neatened up nicely by a rally to the 1860 ES / 1867 SPX area to firmly establish falling megaphone resistance on both charts. If we don't see that happen then most likely we will see SPX trade in a range for the next three or four days until megaphone resistance falls below the daily middle band. In that time the 1823-9 SPX range will also come into range so we could definitely see more downside in that time.