- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Friday, 17 January 2014

Retracement Support Levels

SPX/ES retraced as expected yesterday and ES bounced at established support in the 1834.50 area. The 50 hour MA, now in the 1840 area, isn't holding as support so the retracement is ongoing and I'm looking today at some support in the 1830-3 area including the 38.2% fib retrace and the weekly pivot at 1831, and strong established support in the 1825-7 area. Anything lower than 1825 ES would invite a retest of Monday's low. ES 60min chart:
On the SPX daily chart I'm watching the middle bollinger band at 1833, and that is obvious support. Main support is at Monday's low at 1815, which is now close to rising support from 1646 and the rapidly rising lower bollinger band, currently at 1810. I'm still thinking that there is a possible retest of Monday's low ahead here. SPX daily chart:
On other markets my attention was drawn to GBPUSD this morning. I've posted some very bullish longer term charts on GBPUSD in recent weeks, but it has now broken rising wedge support from the last bog low. That's not bullish, though this might yet turn out to be a bullish underthrow before the wedge breaks back up. Watching this develop carefully. GBPUSD 60min chart:
I mentioned the possible H&S forming on TNX on Wednesday morning and it was fully formed at the close yesterday. On a clear break below 28.2 the H&S target is in the 36 area and I have a possible larger double-top scenario developing that could take TNX back to the 19 area. TNX 60min chart:
On the SPX bigger picture here I am bullish with a wedge target in the 1965 area sometime in the next three or four months. I'm going to be expanding on that this weekend with a post looking at that target and with my current preferred scenario for the next two or three years. Short term I'm seeing key support today in the 1825-8 ES area and would be surprised to see a break below that. If we do see that break then trendline support from 1646 SPX would be the obvious target and that's now close to Monday's low. 

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