- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Tuesday, 1 October 2013

Cats and Dogs

Well there was no budget agreement yesterday, which wasn't much of a surprise really, as no-one seemed particularly interested in talking .... to each other, or compromising. The Republicans seem more likely to be more damaged by this shutdown and may well blink first and soon to avoid serious electoral damage, but I would expect at least a couple more days of posturing and empty rhetoric before a face-saving formula is found.

I did read a suggestion yesterday that the US should trade the whole lot of these clowns for a dog and then shoot the dog, but there are obvious practical and ethical problems with this proposal. For starters it seems most unlikely that any dog owner could be persuaded that the trade was worth doing without large additional financial incentives, and secondly this seems unfairly hard on the dog. Hopefully a better formula can be found.

Meanwhile the market was jittery all day yesterday and prone to move rapidly on rumors of progress. Obviously that may persist for the rest of the week. SPX closed at the 50 DMA, and that is a possible reversal level on the daily chart, though I'm expecting SPX to break through to the 100 DMA in the 1660 area this time. SPX daily chart:
There was marked positive RSI divergence on the ES 60min RSI yesterday warning of the likely bounce that we saw yesterday. This morning that has played out and we now have marked negative divergence on the ES 60min RSI. We might see another run at the 1680-5 resistance zone, but after that I'd be looking for more downside. ES 60min chart:
I mentioned yesterday morning that gold might be about to start another leg down. That has started since I looked again at GC this morning and as I mentioned yesterday the key short term question is whether the recent lows in the 1290 area can hold. I suspect not. Here's the setup shown on the GLD 60min chart:
CL has broken down from a double-top as I was showing on the CL chart yesterday morning. I'm showing that on the WTIC chart this morning to show the obvious target trendline in the 92 area. WTIC daily chart:
ZB has been looking toppy the last couple of days and has failed so far to break over 134. I'm considering the possibility that a larger IHS may be forming and I've shown that possibility on the chart below. ZB 4hr chart:
I'm expecting more downside today and for yesterday's opening gap to remain unfilled. Obviously there is a high degree of political news risk today and if that gap is filled I would take that as a serious warning signal to bears that the obvious downside targets may not be reached.

No comments:

Post a comment