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Wednesday 11 September 2013

911 Anniversary

A thought this morning for all the dead from the 9/11 terror attacks, and all those who have died and are still dying in the conflicts triggered by that attack. It is a cheery thought at least though that Osama Bin Laden will not be seeing any more 9/11 anniversaries.

SPX did not make either of my two immediate overhead targets yesterday and they are still open slightly above yesterday's highs. Those targets are the open breakaway gap at 1685.39 and the daily upper bollinger band which should close today in the 1688 area. I am seeing 1685-90 as a very strong resistance zone and if we are to see a retracement before the 2013 highs are tested, then we may well see that there. If we do see a retracement there then I have yesterday's opening gap at 1671.71, and if SPX can break back below broken resistance at 1669/70, I have an attractive triple target and very strong support level in the 1658 area today. SPX 60min chart:
On the SPX daily chart you can see the high yesterday was six points short of the upper band target and we may well see that tested today, though if the 1685.39 gap fills I'd see that as a technical hit of that target. If we see some retracement at resistance today then I have 50 DMA support in the 1668 area, and the middle bollinger band in the 1655/6 area. The weekly middle bollinger band is in the 1652 area so I would be very surprised to see any retracement below 1650, and a break below that would cast my bull scenario back into doubt. SPX daily chart:
On other markets ZB is trying valiantly to break up from a declining channel and may manage it. I have serious doubts about a rally on bonds here but from a pure technical view it still looks very promising. ZB 60min chart:
I am expecting EURUSD to reverse back down hard soon, and if that's going to happen, declining resistance in the 1.329 area should hold. As long as that trendline holds my double-top target on EURUSD is still 1.295. If the declining resistance trendline breaks that would be a strong warning signal for Euro bears. EURUSD 60min:
CL is testing decent support in the 106.70 area, and is rallying at the moment. I don't really have a strong preference for whether 106.70 holds or breaks. This could easily go either way. CL 60min chart:
GC is nearing the bottom of the rising channel I posted last week and on the bull scenario that would ideally hold. If it breaks the bear signal from that would be weakened by the possible large IHS that is forming on GC. I posted the possible IHS on SI a couple of days ago and the ideal right shoulder low there would be in the 22 area. GC 60min chart:
Ideally I would like to see SPX fill the open breakaway gap and then reverse between there and 1690 in a sharp retracement that should then find support in either the 1968-75 or 1656-9 areas. Anything above 1691 today would be a bullish break. Anything below 1655 then 1650 would be a bearish break. I will be posting an AAPL chart on twitter after the open.

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