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Tuesday, 16 July 2013

Low Volume Crawl Upwards

I understand that yesterday was the lowest volume day of the year on ES, and in these low volume doldrums ES tends to inch upwards as it has been doing since Thursday morning. SPX closed almost five points under the daily upper bollinger band yesterday, though it's still in the right area and I'm not seeing that as a significant sign of weakness yet. SPX daily chart:
On the SPX 60min chart rising support from the 1604 low is now in the 1678 area, and I'm expecting to see that tested today. Ideally that would hold and SPX would then hit rising channel resistance in the
1690-5 area before a decent retracement began. My target for that retracement would be rising channel support, currently just under 1655. The 60min RSI is very very overbought and could use a retracement soon. This is the most overbought the SPX 60min RSI has been in 2013 by quite a margin. SPX 60min chart:
Negative RSI divergence is continuing to build on the ES 60min chart and a rising support trendline has arguably broken, though it isn't a high quality trendline. As long as ES doesn't break below the 50 hour MA, currently in the 1684 area, there isn't a lot to see on the bear side here. ES 60min chart:
On other market I noted yesterday at the break of the rising wedge on CL that we might well see a test of the highs before any follow-through downside and well, here we are. We may well see a new high made on CL here and I'll be watching for signs of the next reversal forming as that could well be a significant decline. CL 60min chart:
On GBPUSD the retest of broken channel resistance has held and I'm expecting the rally from the current low to go higher. The setup since the current rally high is an encouraging looking bull flag. GBPUSD 60min chart:
I posted the GC chart on twitter yesterday and am posting the larger version here today. I know a lot of people have called a low on gold already but I'm not convinced. There's no daily RSI divergence at the current low and GC has not yet reached the obvious target at the 61.8% fib retrace of the 2008-11 wave up. I have GC in a short term declining channel and the next obvious move is a test of declining channel resistance (currently 1350 area) before a reversal downwards to make a marginal new low in the 1135 (GC chart) to 1155 ($Gold chart) area. If we are to see a low on gold anytime soon, that is my highest probability area to see that. GC daily chart:
There's been a decent move up overnight on ZB, and at minimum I'm expecting a test of wedge resistance, currently slightly over 136. RSI is strongly supportive of a break up from this wedge and on a further break over 137 I have the W bottom target just under 142. As I have been mentioning frequently, this could well be the start of a strong rally lasting months on bonds. ZB daily chart:
I'm expecting to see a 20-35 point retracement starting this week, though I think ES could rise another ten to fifteen points before we see that. If SPX reaches channel resistance in the 1690-5 area today or tomorrow I'll be seeing that as an good short entry, albeit I'm not expecting a major top there as I explained yesterday. That retracement would relieve the monotony of the last few days. A firm break below the ES 50 hour MA should confirm that retracement is then in progress.

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