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Wednesday, 22 May 2013

No Shorts Tuesdays

Yesterday was up yet again and I have been reading that the last twenty five or so Tuesdays have all closed in the green. That's not true on SPX, as that dropped 4 points on Tuesday 19th March,  and another four points on Tuesday 12th March, but the run of positive Tuesdays has still been impressive.

There is still negative divergence on the 60min RSIs on ES and SPX, though it's hard to get excited about that while ES is holding above the 50 hour MA, now in the 1665 area. If that should break we may see a move to test rising support on ES from the 1531 low, and that's now in the 1650 area:
On SPX we saw a marginal higher high yesterday on increasingly negative RSI divergence. That looks promising for retracement and I have support on this perfect rising channel on SPX in the 1650 area:
Will we see some retracement here? A small one certainly looks promising from the COMPQ chart where a rising wedge is breaking down, again on increasing negative 60min RSI divergence:
Not much to add to that on equity indices today so I'll move on to other things. First up is the AAPL chart, which looks guardedly bullish here, with the bullish falling wedge broken up and retested, and now a very promising IHS forming at the low. If AAPL can make a higher high over 463 then we should see a bounce back into the 500s. The IHS target would be in the right area to test the 200 DMA, now at 527.71:
Next up is gold, where I have been looking at two trendlines on the weekly (LOG) chart. The first is being tested and could hold, though I'm not expecting that. The second runs from 2001 and is a better prospect, and that's now in the 1050 area. if the first trendline breaks I'll be expecting a move to the second over the next few months:
I'm posting the CL chart today mainly to show the possible double top there on the July futures. Not much has happened there since yesterday morning:
The last chart today is the EURUSD chart, where in addition to the large H&S almost formed there at the moment I would also point out the upsloping H&S that broke down in late 2011. The rally from last summer and failure at 137 could have been a retest of that H&S neckline. I have to say I don't like either H&S, as they both started earlier in the preceding trend than I like to see, but the support trendline on the overall falling wedge from 2007/8 is now in the 110 area, and if EURUSD can beat the 2012 low then I think that we may well see that hit over the next year or so:
ES is kicking around the 1670 area as I write, and has held the 50 hour MA on the last small retracement. I'm not holding my breath for a break below 1665, but if we see that the established support levels are in the 1660 area and at rising support in the 1650 area.

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