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Wednesday 10 April 2013

Fallen Heroes Day 2

I tend to avoid talking politics as my own libertarian views aren't widely shared, but I've been listening with great amusement on the radio this morning to UK Feminists having to acknowledge that Margaret Thatcher advanced the cause of women's rights while criticizing everything else about her. She would have enjoyed that too, as while she was definitely a feminist (small f) in favor of equality for women, she despised Feminism (the political movement) as hopelessly left wing and misandrist (the female equivalent of misogynist meaning hater of women). 

Was she right to despise Feminism as a movement? Definitely, as many leading Feminist intellectuals have for many years been unchallenged within the movement making statements that with a word or two changed, would have seemed entirely at home among extremist Nazis or the Ku Klux Klan. Here are some examples:
  • “I want to see a man beaten to a bloody pulp with a high-heel shoved in his mouth, like an apple in the mouth of a pig.” — Andrea Dworkin
  • “The proportion of men must be reduced to and maintained at approximately 10% of the human race.” — Sally Miller Gearhart
  • “All men are rapists and that’s all they are” — Marilyn French
  • “Probably the only place where a man can feel really secure is in a maximum security prison, except for the imminent threat of release.” — Germaine Greer.
That's only to be expected as a political movement achieves its initial aims and then in senility becomes dominated by those that will never be able to see that, and it's a sad truth of the human condition that hate always sells better than love or justice. Margaret Thatcher was proud to be hated by Feminists, and rightly so. She was born in 1925 and could remember the 1930s when anti-semitism was as widespread and respectable as Feminist misandry is now. Selling hate isn't any more to be respected because the sellers haven't yet had the opportunity to open their own death camps. 

On to the markets where SPX has now tested and slightly exceeded the early April high. There is obviously a perfect potential double-top formed now and on the 60min chart the chances of that playing out would be greatly boosted by a second break below the rising channel from November. That channel support is now in the 1552-4 area:

On ES a shorter term double top is forming as well as the bigger one. We'll need to see yesterday's low broken to boost the bear case. but the negative RSI divergence certainly looks promising:
On the SPX daily chart the high yesterday went slightly over the upper bollinger band. This is the moment of truth for the current bollinger band pinch on the daily chart, which should now resolve into a big move in either direction. As long as resistance holds at the 2007 SPX high that move should be downwards:
What else is there to support a correction here? Well the leaders on the run up on equities from November were RUT and TRAN, and both are underperforming here, with neither even close to a retest of the highs. As with SPX both have also formed rising channels from November that are breaking down, and are showing considerable negative divergence on the daily RSI. Here's how that looks on the TRAN daily chart:
Here's how that looks on the RUT daily chart:
Elsewhere TLT is retesting broken falling wedge resistance and the 200 DMA. This is an obvious level to reverse back up:
I posted a GBPUSD chart last week saying that the obvious rally target was at broken triangle support in the 1.54 area. That's been hit a bit lower at 1.534 but this is the obvious level to reverse back down, and if that can be extrapolated onto USD, for USD to reverse back up:
CL looks ambiguous here as we are either seeing a sloppy IHS that has broken up (bullish) or a rising wedge cum bear flag that has overthrown (bearish). I'm leaning towards the bear side on balance on CL here:
This is an important inflection point, and on balance the odds strongly favor a correction here in my view. Could it go the other way? For sure, technical analysis is just considering the historical odds and if you need guidance from someone with absolute faith, you will need that guidance from a priest rather than an analyst. From the bull side though, regardless of any other considerations, going long here is going long just under major resistance. That resistance could break but the only decent odds entry here is still short. If we do see that major resistance break here though I would expect to see a strong move. 

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