- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
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Tuesday, 19 March 2013

ES Bull Flag

The overnight action on ES was not encouraging for the bear side. ES has recovered over the 50 hour MA and that has now held as support overnight. Declining resistance from the high has also broken. We could decline from here still but on a decent break over 1550 a retest of the current highs seems likely:
On the SPX 15min the H&S I've been looking at as a possibility is still in play though. Yesterday's highs would need to hold for this to have a chance of playing out:
We are likely to see a retracement soon and a retest of the current highs may just be setting up a double-top on ES. Looking at other indices they are looking toppy here. TRAN is a good example of that with a hit of rising channel resistance and major negative divergence on the daily RSI:
I'm mulling over the implications of the AAPL break up here. There is an obvious failure level at 485 but if it gets over that the target is 20% up from here at 550. AAPL won't support the market alone of course, any more than it could depress the market alone, but a move of that magnitude on a company of this magnitude would certainly help to support equity indices:
CL held the key support area at 92 yesterday and bounced back to new rally highs. The IHS scenario into the 77.5 area is still in play here, though it has been weakened by the retracement below the right shoulder low and the loss of the rising channel. Still a bullish setup overall however at the moment:
I had two possible H&S necklines on the EURUSD chart if we are to see much more downside over the summer. My preferred neckline was at 1.30 at EURUSD blew straight through it. My second choice was in the 1.288 area and that is the current low. if we see that H&S continue to form the ideal right shoulder high would be in the 1.313 area:
Looking at ES this morning I'm thinking a retest of the highs looks likely now. ES is holding over the 50 HMA, declining resistance from the high has broken, and the overnight action looks like a bull flag. On a break over yesterday's high I'll be expecting a retest of the highs.

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