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Thursday, 7 March 2013

Either Way Day Again

ES consolidated yesterday and overnight without delivering much in the way of retracement. Will it retrace more definitely today? Well the setup is there but these can get steamrollered by a strong trend upwards, and I think we are in one of those here. We shall see. The setup is there for a possible retracement into the 1525 area if the current high isn't broken with confidence:

The setup is also there on the SPX 15min chart with encouraging negative divergence that would normally result in a move to 30 on the 15min RSI. The same caveats apply though:
On the slightly bigger SPX picture rising channel resistance is in the 1560 SPX area. Obviously this is a moving target and by the time it is reached this may be in the same area as the 2007 high:
SPX closed up slightly almost exactly at the daily upper bollinger band. This is a magnet level for a move like this so although that band can rise 4 or 5 points per day during the move, progress is slightly to be slow and frankly dull unless we see some two way action involving some retracements. This favors the small retracement setup I've outlined here:
CL broke down to test the lows yesterday and the bottoming setup I've been looking at there is now much stronger as a result, with a clear double-bottom setup targeting 93 on a clear break over 91.2:
DX made a marginal new high yesterday without changing the bias towards consolidation or retracement here. Decent support levels now established at 82 and 81.5:
I'm very much in two minds today. The retracement setup looks decent, but the strong trend and the short term setups on both CL and DX favor the bulls. I'm leaning slightly towards retracement, if only because it would make the trading day today more interesting. if we see a retracement into the 1528-33 SPX area that would be a definite dip buying opportunity. I'm expecting a test of the 2000 high at 1553 within days.

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