- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Thursday, 20 December 2012

Winding Down

So much for statistics, as we did see a significant retracement yesterday, and that has opened up the possibility that we may now see more. If we do see more I'll still be looking primarily at NDX. The retracement yesterday stopped at the first obvious support level. If we see more then the next big support level is in the 2660 area, and I would expect that to hold:
If we do see more retracement there is a very nice looking little short term double-top on the AAPL chart that targets the 516 area on a break below 525. The overall bullish setup on AAPL still looks good so I'd be treating that as a buy the dip opportunity:
On SPX the close back below the daily upper bollinger band has opened up the possibility of a deeper retracement. Main uptrend support is in the 1414-18 area, with the 50 and 100 DMAs and the middle bollinger band all in that area:
ES made a nice looking low overnight, with a little W bottom on positive 15min RSI divergence that has since played out. If we are to see continuation upwards then ES will clear 1437 area resistance. If we are to see failure I would expect it at or before that level, and in that case there is a sloping H&S formed on ES with a target at 1408 on a break below the overnight lows:
On other markets there was a nice move up from CL yesterday after the break of the declining channel.  As & when the resistance area around 90.2 is broken I will have an upside target in the 94.8 area, but until then this is an obvious area to see some retracement:
EURUSD broke down from the rising channel from 1.29 overnight, and I think EURUSD is now into a short term topping process. The obvious target on a retracement is a 50% retracement into the broken resistance in the 1.31 area:
Everything is winding down for the Xmas holiday including the fiscal cliff negotiations, which seem to be winding down without any agreement being close. If there is no fiscal cliff agreement then the market reaction to that could make mincemeat of the nice overall bull setup here over the next few weeks. That's very hard to call. I'm not feeling any strong directional bias this morning, if we see the overnight lows broken we may well see a test of the 1410 ES area, if 1437 is broken then a retest of the highs.Unless I see something particularly interesting I think I'll be taking the rest of the day off.

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