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Monday 31 December 2012

Testing Main Support

SPX was testing the daily lower bollinger band again on Friday, and that isn't far above the main support level for SPX at the 200 DMA at 1390. We could well see that tested today:
On the SPX 15min chart the decline seems to be resolving into a bullish broadening descending wedge. The upper trendline only has two hits but the lower trendline has three, and so is of good quality. Wedge resistance is now in the 1414 area:
On ES there was a very significant decline after the SPX close on Friday. That made it as low as 1382.5, but I'm seeing this overall as the test of the 1388 area that I was talking about on Friday morning. I have declining resistance on ES in the 1405 area and since I capped this chart ES has spiked back into the mid-1390s:
Vix has been riding above the daily upper bollinger band for some days now. Looking back the closest equivalent I can see is during the equities decline in August 2011. That example is suggesting that downtrend should be respected as long as this lasts, but that a decent low may well be made when Vix closes back within the bands:
CL is still holding the 90 area. This may hold, but if it breaks then channel support is in the 89.3 area, and the double-top target is in the 88.5 area
I've been looking at the DX chart this morning. I was talking last week about seeing a hit of the IHS neckline and possible channel support trendline in the 78.9 area. That didn't happen and DX has rallied into the 80 area from a near miss. That near miss looks bearish to my eye, as these are generally followed by a break of the missed trendline in my experience. I'm watching with interest to see whether DX can break back over 80:
If the declining resistance (and wedge) trendline on SPX in the 1414 area can be broken today I will be looking for a low. Downside risk is obviously very high however, as there is still no sign of a fiscal cliff agreement, and we may well see the SPX 200 DMA tested at 1390 today. Fiscal cliff permitting I will be very cautiously looking for a possible low around there, but if we see a conviction break below we could well then see a test of the November lows not long afterwards. If we are to see a low around here I would like to see a decent low with positive divergence on the 60min RSI, as there is obviously a very real risk of a waterfall decline on US equities as we move into 2013 without any budget agreement. Everyone have a good New Year's Eve and a great new year in 2013. :-)

Friday 28 December 2012

Double Tops

This has been an ugly decline on equities so far, in the sense that there hasn't been much that has developed in the way of trendlines and therefore patterns. That is ominous, as I often see this near the start of a strong trend, before the large trendlines for that trend have started to clarify.

SPX bounced at the daily lower bollinger band yesterday, and bounced back almost to retest the middle bollinger band. A daily close back above that middle bollinger band would look bullish, but we haven't see that yet, and that was at 1422 at the close yesterday:
I was talking about the possible major double-top on SPX on Monday and last week. I've stripped that out from my main daily chart to have a closer look at that today. You can see that there is a clear rising wedge from the October 2011 low that has broken down and, as I said when it broke down in November, the first break generally signals the start of a topping process.

When this happens you look for a reversal pattern to develop, and in the case of SPX, that would generally be an H&S or a double-top. We now have that viable double-top, and a strong second break below rising wedge support would look potentially very bearish. I'm seeing the make or break level for the bears here at the 200 DMA at 1390. A close and hold below there invites a test of the November lows. A break below the November lows targets the 1210-15 area, which is also the area for this rising wedge to evolve into a rising channel. I'm not wild about the seasonal timing for this, but I'm definitely taking this scenario seriously:
A test of the 200 DMA at 1390 SPX would fit with strong support on ES in the 1388 area. This is a key support area. Short term, while ES is making lower lows and highs, this downtrend needs to be respected, and there is as yet no positive divergence on the 60min RSI:
NDX broke below 2620 support yesterday and that was a significant looking lower low. Looking at the NDX chart there was obviously a bullish IHS that formed, broke up, and failed. This often leads to a strong reaction in the opposite direction. If AAPL loses the 500 support level, this setup is arguing for a test of the November lows:
I was looking for a test of the last highs on EURUSD, but there is already a viable possible double-top in place on EURUSD. The target is the strong support area around 1.30 on a conviction break below 1.3157:
On CL the decline yesterday found support at former resistance in the 90.2 area before making a marginal new high. RSI negative divergence is very strong, and on a break below 90 there is a double-top target in the 88.5 area, though to get there strong rising channel support at 89 would need to break:
SPX hit daily lower bollinger band support yesterday, and that's only 11 points above the 200 DMA at 1390. We may well see that 1390 level tested in the next two or three trading days, and that is a very key level both as the 200 DMA, and for the strong level support in the same area. That level is make or break for the bear scenario here in my view.

Thursday 27 December 2012

The Looming Cliff

I read on Bloomberg this morning that the Federal Government will reach the borrowing limit on December 31st, and that Geithner will start using extraordinary measures to finance the federal deficit into early 2013. A reminder that unless some sort of bipartisan deal is reached in  the next couple of months, the Federal Government will start to shut down due to lack of funds.

It did strike me though that a possible alternative for Obama is to write off some of the large stock of US treasuries now held by the Fed. I wonder if that would be legal without congressional approval? It could extend the Federal government's borrowing ability considerably further, though it would tear aside the thin fiction that at some point the Fed will release these back into the market, and hasn't been printing money in part to finance these huge deficits.

Be that as it may, on Xmas Eve SPX closed slightly below the daily middle bollinger band and the 100 DMA. It may hold there, though there is further support below at the 50 DMA at 1413. On a break below that the lower bollinger band is at 1400:
On the SPX 60min chart there is obvious no support trendline from the November low, and since the first push up from there, no such trendline of any weight has formed. However there are shorter term trendlines that are in play, with most likely either a broadening ascending wedge or a sloping H&S forming on a three week support trendline. As long as that holds that looks short term bullish with a target in the 1440 area if a sloping H&S is forming, and at a retest of the September high area if it is a broadening wedge:
EURUSD is on the way back to retest the last high in the 1.331 area. There is big resistance there as that test should complete the H&S forming on DX. At that point I would expect either a break through or a strong reversal, and in the case of reversal there is obviously now a possible double-top forming for that test:
CL bounced strongly at the short term support trendline I was looking at on Monday, and that may well be the lower trendline on a rising channel. If so CL has hit channel resistance and is showing considerable negative RSI divergence here, so I am looking for a reversal into channel support in the 88.8 to 89 area:
Obviously much depends over the next few days on whether a deal can be struck on the fiscal cliff and the federal debt ceiling. I'm doubtful about that, and a recent poll quoted on Bloomberg says that 48% of the US public don't expect one in the near future. I'm leaning bullish for the rest of this week if ES can recover over 1417.50 by the open and hold over it. If that doesn't happen then I'll be looking for support at either the 50 DMA in the 1413 SPX area or the daily lower bollinger band at 1400 SPX. I would be surprised to see a break much below 1400 without a decent bounce first.

I'm still in holiday mode, hence the shorter post than normal. Of the markets I've looked at this morning only CL is offering a nice looking play, though I'll be watching the likely EURUSD retest of the highs for signs of resistance. A strong break above 1.331 would have big implications for USD into 2013, but until we see that I'll be looking for reversal there.

Monday 24 December 2012


Just a short post today, as I have no plans to trade until after Christmas and I have some last minute Christmas shopping to do. The first thing to say is that I mentioned the 1417.50 ES support level on Friday morning and that has been holding since. It was the low overnight and as long as that holds I'm leaning bullish today. I don't think there's either much time or the seasonality for a definite break downwards to happen today. Dow has been up 5 of that last 5 Christmas Eve trading days and I'm not expecting much different today:
One thing I do want to talk about today is the large amount of downside risk here. When the markets were dropping in November I was saying repeatedly that there was no viable topping pattern on SPX as yet to suggest that the September QE high was of much significance. I mentioned on Friday, and I'll repeat today, that is no longer the case. SPX generally tops out with either an H&S or a double-top, and there is now a technically valid possible double-top between the September and December highs. The target would be in the 1210-15 area on a break below the November lows and it's striking that if the rising wedge from October 2011 were to evolve into a rising channel, then channel support is currently just under that target.

We haven't yet seen a clear second break below the rising wedge as yet, but we are testing that trendline. If the is no fiscal cliff agreement and we see that clear second break, then there is a clear technical pathway back into the low 1200s on SPX, and that would very much need to be borne in mind:
The Vix chart was very striking on Friday. Vix opened with a two to three standard deviation move up past the daily upper bollinger band, and then retreated for the rest of the day to close just above the upper band. This may be setting up a Vix Buy (equities) Signal but I'd be more inclined to take it as a signal that confidence here is very fragile. The last move that was at all equivalent however did mark a significant low and I've marked that on the Vix daily chart below:
I'm not sure what's happening on EURUSD today, but I will post the CL chart, where the retracement on Friday bottomed out where I expected and a strong short term support trendline has been established. As long as that holds I'm leaning bullish short term. A break below that trendline would invite yet another test of key support in the 85.15 to 85.75 area:
There is a lot of downside risk here, and a failure to agree an alternative to the fiscal cliff could provide the downside trigger for a very significant decline on equities in January. Right now the prospects for such an agreement look dim. I would be very cautious about being heavily long here though, for today at least, the odds favor a sideways to up day as long as 1417.50 holds on SPX. Everyone have a great Xmas or holiday and my next post will be on Thursday :-)

Friday 21 December 2012

Peering Over The Cliff

I was writing a few weeks ago that it was all too easy to see a situation where the fiscal cliff was allowed to happen. The republicans could avoid agreeing to politically difficult tax rises, the democrats could blame the republicans for being too inflexible to compromise. An agreement early in the New Year could mitigate the effects with spending and tax cuts that eliminated most of the cliff and those tax cuts would henceforth be known as the Obama tax cuts.

Over the last couple of weeks it seemed that nonetheless an agreement was likely, but this wasn't the case, as it seems that Boehner couldn't muster the votes yesterday for an agreement that included any tax increases at all. It seems equally unlikely that the democrats and Obama would allow any agreement that doesn't include tax increases, so it seems likely now that the fiscal cliff will be allowed to happen, and that negotiations in early 2013 will be about what will replace the fiscal cliff agreement.

What does this mean for markets? A lot of uncertainty over the next couple of months, and it seems doubtful that the bullish looking setups here will survive that, but we'll see.

There was a most impressive drop on ES overnight, finding support in the 1417.5 area, but with an intra-hour pinocchio down as far as 1391.25, a drop peak to trough of fifty points in four hours. As it happens this established a nice looking rising channel on ES from the November low, though I'm doubtful about that holding. The important support levels for today at 1417.5 and 1405.45, and significant resistance is at 1424 and 1432.5:
On SPX the close yesterday was at the upper bollinger band. Given the scale of the move overnight a test of main support in the 1414-19 area today or Monday seems likely. That is at the cluster of the middle bollinger band (1419) and the 100 and 50 DMAs, and main uptrend support is there. On a break below there the lower BB is at 1394 and the 200 DMA is at 1389. If SPX should get that far that would be a second conviction break of the rising wedge support trendline. That would obviously look significantly bearish and set up a possible double-top with a target in the 1215 area on a conviction break below the November low at 1343:
On NDX I'm looking at 2660 area support today. On a break much below that I would be writing off the bullish rectangle targeting the 2770 area:
On EURUSD there is now a possible double-top formed with a target in the 1.307 area on a clear break below 1.318. There is some decent support in the 1.31 area:
CL is retracing as expected from 90.2 area resistance having formed a nice little double-top there on negative RSI divergence yesterday. The obvious target is double trendline support in the 88.1 area. On a break below that there is very strong support in the 84.5 to 85.5 area:
Vix has been hinting at trouble on equities for the last two closes, with both of those at the daily upper bollinger band. I have possible triangle resistance in the 18.8 area somewhat higher:
Gold broke well below the 150 DMA yesterday, and this is a signal for further weakness. Short term gold is close to declining channel support in the 1630 area:
It is the silver chart that really draws the eye here however. The summer low was a perfect touch of a support trendline from the late 2008 low. That is now in the 28.5 area and a break below would look very bearish indeed:
What is the big picture view here? When people were talking about the possibility of a major top having been put in at the September post QE Infinity announcement spike, my response was that it would be an odd looking top, and a key reason for that was that most major highs and lows on SPX are signaled with either an H&S or a double-top. My preferred kind of double-top has a slightly higher high on negative RSI divergence, but on many double-tops the second high is lower, with the key requirement for a decent double-top being that the two highs be within 3% of each other, though this can sometimes stretch to 5&, and I prefer to see a difference ideally under 2%. The difference between the September and December highs at the moment is slightly over 1.8%.

With rising wedges the first break below the support trendline is generally just a signal that the topping process has begun. If a topping pattern then forms before a second break below that support trendline, that is generally a strongly bearish signal. For that reason if 1414-19 area support fails to hold on SPX that will be a very bearish looking development. We'll see if that area can hold. If it doesn't we could well be looking at the start of a very major decline here, and it's worth noting that the 1215 possible double-top target is just under the 61.8 fib retracement level for the advance from the October 2011 low.

In other news today is the 21st December 2012, and according to some, this is the scheduled date for the end of the world according to the ancient Mayan calendar. If so I'll be hoping that this will be late in the day on EST, so I will have time to see The Hobbit with my kids later on today. If perchance the world doesn't end today, and for those who are signing off until after the holidays, have a great Xmas or holiday! I expect to be doing a post on Monday morning.

Thursday 20 December 2012

Winding Down

So much for statistics, as we did see a significant retracement yesterday, and that has opened up the possibility that we may now see more. If we do see more I'll still be looking primarily at NDX. The retracement yesterday stopped at the first obvious support level. If we see more then the next big support level is in the 2660 area, and I would expect that to hold:
If we do see more retracement there is a very nice looking little short term double-top on the AAPL chart that targets the 516 area on a break below 525. The overall bullish setup on AAPL still looks good so I'd be treating that as a buy the dip opportunity:
On SPX the close back below the daily upper bollinger band has opened up the possibility of a deeper retracement. Main uptrend support is in the 1414-18 area, with the 50 and 100 DMAs and the middle bollinger band all in that area:
ES made a nice looking low overnight, with a little W bottom on positive 15min RSI divergence that has since played out. If we are to see continuation upwards then ES will clear 1437 area resistance. If we are to see failure I would expect it at or before that level, and in that case there is a sloping H&S formed on ES with a target at 1408 on a break below the overnight lows:
On other markets there was a nice move up from CL yesterday after the break of the declining channel.  As & when the resistance area around 90.2 is broken I will have an upside target in the 94.8 area, but until then this is an obvious area to see some retracement:
EURUSD broke down from the rising channel from 1.29 overnight, and I think EURUSD is now into a short term topping process. The obvious target on a retracement is a 50% retracement into the broken resistance in the 1.31 area:
Everything is winding down for the Xmas holiday including the fiscal cliff negotiations, which seem to be winding down without any agreement being close. If there is no fiscal cliff agreement then the market reaction to that could make mincemeat of the nice overall bull setup here over the next few weeks. That's very hard to call. I'm not feeling any strong directional bias this morning, if we see the overnight lows broken we may well see a test of the 1410 ES area, if 1437 is broken then a retest of the highs.Unless I see something particularly interesting I think I'll be taking the rest of the day off.

Wednesday 19 December 2012

Breaking Up

This has been a very impulsive move up from the low last Friday. Statistically yesterday should have been a retracement or consolidation day but instead we saw a strong move up and SPX punched through the daily upper bollinger band and closed well above it. So where does that leave us this morning?

These strong punches above the daily bollinger band are relatively rare, but they still happen fairly regularly. Since July 2011 there have been five previous instances where this happened as I have marked on the chart below. Of these five , three were close to significant highs but not one was immediately followed by a retracement of any significance. Three saw flat closes the next day with the other two closing significantly in the green. Historically there is therefore no reason to think that we saw any kind of significant high yesterday. Here's how that looks on the SPX daily chart:
The weekly chart adds something to that as well. Of the moves with the five strong punches above the daily upper bollinger band, the last four, all in the bull market since the October 2011 low, all topped out at or above the weekly upper bollinger band, and the fifth ended just ten or so points short of that.That weekly upper bollinger band is now at 1473, and would rise slightly by the time we reached it. The obvious target for this move is therefore a test of the September highs in the 1474.51 area before there is much real chance of an intermediate or major top:
I've led with these two charts to give a backdrop for the rest of the charts today, as they are still pointing upwards and I know some were thinking yesterday that the close well above the daily bollinger band was a signal that a significant high was very close. Close perhaps, but not likely to be right here. The odds favor significantly more upside, though we could see an interim or major high in late December or early January. That may favor the bears overall for next year, as the January close is widely watched as the 'January Barometer', and a January that closes red would suggest that 2013 may well also close red.

On the NDX chart the IHS looks unreliable, as I've said before. There is a better version on the COMPQ that I'll show tomorrow though, and this is at least worth bearing in mind. What we did see yesterday however was the bullish rectangle break up and that has a target in the 2770 area. I've found these to be reliable performers in the past:
I was outlining the bullish setup on AAPL yesterday morning and that has now strengthened considerably with a clear break over short term declining (and possibly falling wedge) resistance. I'm expecting more upside. Resistance is in the 555 and 595 areas and on a break over 600 I'll be looking for a double-bottom target at 687:
Just to add to this already disturbingly powerful bull move, my EURUSD rising channel broke up overnight, and I no longer have an obvious target there. I won't show that chart today as I'll show the DX chart instead. I first sketched a path for the possible H&S forming on USD in September after the previous uptrend broke down and the first low of the new downtrend had been made. I've posted updates a few times since but with the break up on EURUSD this pattern has now almost been completed. I have the key support area in the 78.85 to 79 range, and on a clear break below the H&S target is in the 73.2 area. If we see this H&S break downwards I would expect the USD downtrend to continue strongly for several more months. Until the neckline breaks USD bulls still have a shot, though the odds are stacked against them both technically and fundamentally. Previous periods of massive money printing by the Fed have seen major declines on USD, which is only to be expected as money printing is devaluation:
CL tested the resistance trendline on the large declining channel there yesterday, and then broke up overnight. This kills off the bear scenario on CL in my view and the picture there now looks bullish. Overhead resistance is in the 90.2 and 94.8 areas and I'm looking mainly at that upper target:
I haven't been posting shorter term bond charts much recently and that's because there hasn't been much of interest happening there from a trendline or pattern perspective. My overall take on bonds however is very bearish here, and the reason for that can be seen on the amazing 32yr bull market channel on USD (30yr Treasuries), shown below on the monthly chart. As you can see, USD has hit channel resistance from 1980 earlier this year and I've been looking for a last move up for a double-top to form here, or a move back down to the 136.5 area to the possible H&S neckline there. I'm leaning towards the latter scenario,and if USB can close a month below 145 I'll be expecting to see that happen:
Gold has finally made it to my target at the very important support/resistance level at the 150 DMA. That was tested yesterday and is holding so far. If it breaks the next target is declining channel support in the 1630 area, and if it holds then a break above the declining channel should signal that the uptrend has resumed. I remain bullish overall on gold, and if we are to see a big decline on USD over the next few months, even more so:
The odds favor a flat or green close today, and the structure of bull trends favors retracements near the open followed by strength for the rest of the day. Three of the five daily punches that I looked at on the first chart traded significantly above the previous day's close the next day, and only one of those three returned for a flat close. I have some trendline support on ES in the 1439 area, and stronger support in the 1433-4 area which I would expect to hold today.

Tuesday 18 December 2012

Turning Up

Yesterday was a very nice day on the long side. I led with the nice bull setup on ES with a target in the 1427 area in the morning and that target was made by the close. I went long shortly before I capped that chart and closed out after the close so I had a very good day.

What now? Well short term the odds favor gap fill and some retracement today and the short term rising support trendline on ES from yesterday's lows broke a couple of hours ago, so ES may well be topping out short term before that likely retracement closer to the open. Looking around longer term I'm seeing mainly bull setups here, and I'll run through some of those.

On the daily chart SPX is approaching resistance in at the upper bollinger band in the 1435 area. In the event that we are starting a trending move however, and yesterday's move did look impulsive, that just means that SPX would start to push the upper bollinger band upwards. Strong support is in the 1411-16 area at the middle bollinger band, and the 50 and 100 DMAs, and I'll be leaning bullish overall as long as that area holds:
My main upside target here is on the SPX weekly chart. I've shown this seven year chart before showing 14 hits of the middle bollinger band from the lower bollinger band over that period, of which 11 broke up, and 9 of those made it to the weekly upper bollinger band. That upper bollinger band is my primary target here, currently at 1471, and obviously that would be a potential double-top area for SPX:
On NDX the IHS is weakened badly but isn't altogether out of the game. However Bulkowski warns that an extended right shoulder weakens these patterns and I agree. On a clear break over 2700 the 2900 area target can no longer be relied upon. However there is a nicely formed rectangle now, these being a classic pattern developing from a potential double-top that doesn't deliver, and the target there would be in the 2770 area on a break over 2700. I've found these to be solid performers in the past:
It is the AAPL chart that is looking particularly interesting on the bull side this morning however, and while sentiment is now very against AAPL, just as it was very in favor of AAPL when I started looking at the topping setup there in September, there really is a nice potential bottom setup here. I've outlined the parts of this bull setup on the chart below but in summary we have this:

A broadening descending wedge formed from the high and then broke up last month. These wedges are bullish but I've observed before, as with rising and falling wedges, that the first break often just signals the start of the reversal process,and there is a very good example of exactly that on this chart with the rising wedge that formed from the November low. Since that reversal from the 200 DMA we have seen a possible falling wedge form, but with a very nice resistance trendline now in the 522 area. The marginal lower low yesterday was on significant positive divergence on both the 60min and daily charts.

As long as AAPL can hold the area for yesterday's lows, this setup looks bullish medium term, with a very nice possible double-bottom setup with a target at 687 on a conviction break over 595. Long term this may just be setting up a double-top on AAPL, but for now this setup looks bullish. Short term a break over 522 should signal that the short term downtrend is over or at least ending, and targets the last high at 594.59 with significant resistance on the way in the 555 area. I'll be watching for that break over 522:
On other markets CL is approaching a test of the declining channel there and that is at 88.8 this morning. A clear break above would look bullish and I'd then be looking at the resistance levels in the 90.2 and 94.8 areas. A reversal at or before declining channel resistance would leave the overall bearish setup intact:
EURUSD is now within striking distance of main rising channel resistance in the 1.3225 area, and I'll be looking for signs of reversal there. Shorter term rising channel support is in the 1.316 area:
I've noticed quite a few people looking for long entries on Yen after the strong recent decline. I posted the JPYUSD chart a few weeks ago showing the broken rising wedge and possible sloping H&S forming there. That H&S has now completed forming and broken down. The target is in the 105 area and any bounces should be sold in my view. Rarely have a technical setup and disastrous fundamentals been so in sync as they are with this bearish setup on the Yen
For this morning I think ES is most likely topping out before we see a gap fill and retrace. There is decent support in the 1430 area now however and that will obviously have to break for that retrace to happen. Unless we see the strong support area 1411-16 SPX broken I'll be treating any shorts as counter-trend and looking for a buyable dip to form on this retrace.

Monday 17 December 2012

Point of Decision

For a number of reasons equities are at important point of decision here. Any lower and equities will most likely fall significantly further, but if they reverse here we should see a retest of the recent highs and possibly a lot more than that.

On ES I posted a decent declining resistance trendline from the high on Friday. ES was showing some positive RSI divergence at the close on Friday and then gapped above that declining resistance trendline at the Globex open. Since then ES has been retesting broken resistance and the 1410 level of the penultimate low last week. There is a possible downsloping IHS forming with a target in the 1427 area on a break over 1415.5, and while 1410 ES holds this is an unambiguously short term bullish looking setup:
In terms of support on the SPX daily chart the close on Friday was slightly below the 1415 area at the 50 and 100 DMAs. The daily lower bollinger band is now at 1407 not far below and there is also support there:
On the weekly chart the close was five points below the weekly middle bollinger band at 1419. A little weak, but while SPX holds this area on a weekly close basis the odds favor the bulls for the next move. If there is a break down from here then the next important support is in the 1385-90 area, with the 200 DMA at 1387, and the weekly lower bollinger band then at 1368:
On NDX the bullish IHS has now been seriously weakened as this retracement has undercut the right shoulder. I won't be relying on this pattern for a target. There is still significant support in this area however and we could be seeing a (less) bullish rectangle form if we see a reversal here. NDX has broken slightly under the double-top valley low but when double-top patterns fail, that is generally where they fail. If NDX makes a conviction break below the double-top target will be in the 2550 area:
On AAPL we are seeing the retest of the November lows. There is some short term positive RSI divergence, and a reversal here would set up a very nice potential double-bottom with a target in the 680-5 area on a break over 595. A break lower would suggest a move to the 470s next however:
Vix reached the daily upper bollinger band on Friday. Again a very possible reversal area, though I have possible triangle resistance somewhat higher at 18.8:
EURUSD showed a lot of strength breaking up through the bearish looking reversal setup on Friday morning. A short term rising channel has now been established within the larger rising channel and EURUSD could hit resistance on both in the 1.3225 area today. I would be looking for a significant reversal to most likely retest the 1.30 area from there:
Hard to call today, but as long as these support areas on ES, NDX and AAPL hold, I'm leaning bullish. The setup I am seeing on ES this morning will generally resolve bullishly, and if ES can get over 1415.5 I'll be looking for a move back into the 1420s and a possible retest of the highs. I'm disappointed however that my lovely NDX IHS has been getting mangled, there are a number of possible IHS patterns around that chartists have been looking at, but in my view it was the only decent one, and there is no longer a decent quality bull pattern pointing back to the September highs in my opinion.