- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Thursday, 11 October 2012

Perfect Hit SPX Support

SPX hit the lower bollinger band on the daily chart yesterday and closed there at the end of the day. Unless we are going to see a trending move downwards then I would expect a reversal there with the obvious target at the middle bollinger band in the 1452 SPX area. It's worth mentioning that the bollinger band pinch here that I've mentioned a few times generally resolves into a strong trending move, and that unless we see a break below the rising channel on SPX, the obvious direction for that move would be up:
Looking closely at the rising channel on SPX, the low yesterday was a perfect touch of channel support and with that the retracement target that I have been looking at for the last five weeks or so has now been hit. Unless that channel breaks down and triggers the double-top setup then the obvious direction from here is up:
On ES I have resistance at 1432 (broken since I capped the chart), declining resistance in the 1440 area and a strong resistance level at 1444.5, which is a fit with a move to the middle bollinger band on the SPX daily chart. A break above declining resistance would look bullish and SPX declining resistance from the last high is a bit lower than that:
TRAN broke back under 5003 yesterday and was retesting that at the close. I haven't yet written off my bull target at 5130ish though as TRAN is showing some positive divergence and the declining channel there looks like a bull flag. Cautiously bullish on TRAN still:
EURUSD didn't reach the obvious target at rising support from the 2012 low and may yet return to test that. For the moment however EURUSD has broken over declining resistance from the high and I have a small W bottom target in the 1.30 area. Bullish for the moment there:
CL overshot my 94.3 target yesterday to reverse at an alternate resistance level slightly higher at 93.7. A very ugly but valid complex IHS may be forming at that neckline and that's just waiting for a break over 93.7 to trigger an IHS target in the 99-100 area. I don't like patterns this ugly but a conviction break over 93.7 would be unambiguously bullish:
Everything is looking cautiously bullish this morning, and we have finally reached my retracement target on SPX. We may now therefore be starting the main QEX bull run if there is going to be one. I'll be leaning bullish until I see strong evidence to the contrary, which would most likely be at a break of this now very strong rising channel on SPX. I'm still a bit doubtful about the setup on AAPL and am watching that closely. I'll be posting another AAPL update on twitter after the open.

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