- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
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Thursday, 9 August 2012

Still Leaning Bearish

I mentioned yesterday that ES and SPX were looking short term toppy and that's even more the case today. On ES we have a possible rising wedge forming as I mentioned yesterday, and within that rising wedge ES has broken short term (weak) rising support and now formed a possible double-top. On a break below 1390 the pattern target is in the 1378 area, but I'd really be looking for a move to rising wedge support in the 1370 area.
The middle bollinger band on the SPX daily chart is at 1370 SPX now so that would fit with a retracement into the middle bollinger band:
That's also backed up by the EURUSD setup that I was looking at yesterday. The short term double-top there has broken down and the pattern target is 1.224, with rising wedge support in the 1.22 area:
Oil is consolidating here and, while short term rising support has been broken, this might well be a bull flag. On a break below 93 this possible short term double-top has a target in the 91.2 area:
On the bigger picture I've been watching (Dr) copper to see whether we might see a move up there in sympathy with equities. Nothing as yet and the recent consolidation looks like a bear flag. Nothing much happening on the bear side either however unless this huge H&S completes forming and breaks down through the neckline:
There's a nice setup for a short term retracement here on SPX and ES. The downside targets are triggered on a break below 1390 ES, and if we see that then I'll be looking for a move to 1370-5 ES. A move much over the overnight high at 1404 ES would kill off this setup but until then I'm leaning short term bearish, with a view that if we see this retracement, it will be a decent short term buy the dip opportunity.

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