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Thursday, 30 August 2012

Broken Support on ES

On the SPX daily chart the middle bollinger band was support again yesterday, but there's every reason to think looking at ES that SPX will break below that this morning. If so then the obvious targets are the lower bollinger band in the 1382 area and rising channel support in the 1379 area. There is a poor quality H&S that has formed on SPX with a target in the 1365-70 area on a break below last week's low but I wouldn't rely on that being reached:
On ES and SPX a new support trendline from the late July low had formed, and on ES that has broken down overnight. The obvious ES target would be rising channel support in the 1368/9 area, and that would fit with the low quality H&S on SPX, but the strong support in the 1379 - 82 area on SPX is the first target and may well hold:
EURUSD looks fragile here, and on a break below the new support trendline from the 1.23 low the obvious target would be the 1.2465 area. On a break below that the double-top target would be in the 1.2356 area with rising wedge support somewhat above in the 1.239 area:
CL almost reached the target rising wedge trendline overnight, and I'm expecting that trendline to be tested shortly. If CL reverses there then there is a double-bottom target at 98.65 on a break over 96.55. Rising wedge resistance is currently at 99.3. On a break below rising wedge support I have the next decent support level at 92:
TLT has been reversing back down towards major support and the possible right shoulder low on the potential IHS that I've been talking about. If that IHS completes and then plays out then the target is a new high in the 132.9 area, so a hit of the 123.5 to 124 area looks like an interesting long opportunity. 
Overall I'm leaning bearish for today and more so if EURUSD should break short term rising support. 

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