- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Thursday, 19 July 2012

Looking Overbought

A shortish post today as I'm still feeling a bit drained from returning yesterday from holiday and have a headache today. Looking at the SPX daily chart the current move up from support at the 50 DMA is close to reaching the upper bollinger band in the 1383 area. If the current move peaks like the last two then that would give a likely upside target in the 1385-90 area:
Looking at the 60min chart we have a solid uptrend with higher lows and highs, though this still looks like a corrective rally rather than an impulsive move towards new highs. The rising wedge that was looking very promising a couple of weeks ago has faded and there's no current pattern worth mentioning other than a possible double-top here, currently at the wild speculation stage. People have been talking about a possible cup and handle formed from the lows last month. I see it but the quality looks poor, so I'm disregarding it:
On the 15min chart I have a nice looking rising channel from the last low. I have channel support in the 1357-60 area today but I'm really looking for another push up to establish negative RSI divergence and set up the next short term high, ideally in the 1385-90 area as I mentioned looking at the daily:
I've been looking at bonds carefully this morning. The possible double-top on TLT and ZB that I was talking about a couple of weeks ago has set up, and while the overall picture on bonds looks bullish that's worth bearing in mind as a possibility. The signal for this playing out would be a conviction break below very firm support at 124 on TLT. Looking though at my 30 year declining channel on 30yr bond yields (TYX), you can see that TYX is still testing support at the 2008/9 lows, with the obvious target on a break below at channel support in the 1.7-8 area. That seems the more likely outcome here:
Would that be bearish for equities? Somewhat I think, though it's worth noting that TYX reached the last peak in early 2011 while SPX was trading in the 1300-1350 range. Since that time long term bond yields have almost halved while equities have slightly increased. Short term on SPX the current move looks to be topping out and though I'm looking for a bit more upside before a substantial retracement short term longs are starting to look risky here.

No comments:

Post a comment