- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
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Friday, 27 April 2012

Buy The Dips IMO

The key resistance trendlines were tested and broken yesterday, and the setup this morning looks clearly bullish.  We might see a pullback to retest broken resistance in trading hours, but on ES and NQ those retests have already happened overnight. On NQ the break up from the broadening descending wedge has been very classical with a break, the retest and move up. The pattern target is at the 2012 highs in the 2792 area and Bulkowski gives these an average 79% probability of making that target area:
On the SPX 60min double-bottom resistance was broken with some confidence yesterday and the target is in the 1427 area. Bulkowski gives these a 66% chance of making target. I have some trendline resistance at 1408 that I'm watching:
On the RUT a similar double-bottom has also broken up. It's worth mentioning here that this has the look of a part-formed H&S overall on the YTD chart and the ideal right shoulder high would be at 833 resistance. The double-bottom target is at 849, slightly over the 2012 high:
Last chart of the day is CL, where oil is finally close to a test of channel resistance on the declining channel I've been posting the last few weeks. I'm leaning bearish overall on balance but the channel may be a bull flag, and a break up might therefore potentially be very bullish:
On equities the setup is unambiguously bullish after yesterday, and we should be back on buying the dips for the moment. The bullish setup would be weakened by a break back down through the resistance that broke yesterday with confidence, but even then we have an underlying strong setup of higher lows and highs now. I have short term trendline rising support on SPX in the 1380 area this morning  and a break below there would make me wonder about possible failure here. Until then we are most likely looking at the last impulse wave up in the sequence since the October low, and the next tests are at the current 2012 highs and the 1442 SPX pivot not far above.

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